You confuse producing lots of oil and being number 1
it is possible to be oil independent and not be the #1 producer.
You confuse producing lots of oil and being number 1
it is possible to be oil independent and not be the #1 producer.
..............
The key points in the article based on inteviews with the majors—are that fracking costs have plunged from $80@ barrel to $50-60@ barrel. That current technology is only getting 20% of the oil in place. That the companies involved in fracking believe that the USA is only in the very earliest days of the technology.
What’s the point here.
The point is that there is enough visibility to predict that production can grow by 1 million barrels@ day for the next 2-3 years—as it has for the last three. Citibank analysts have separately said that they expect that the USA will become oil independent by 2020. That means that production will have to rise by five million barrels @ day.
Does being oil independent mean that the USA will be the #1 oil producer in the world? Not necessarily.
But oil independence is certainly a step in the right direction,.
Here’s the way citibank puts it.
The probability of North American energy independence is extremely high, but even the prospects of US energy independence are real. Burgeoning US energy independence brings with it an opportunity to re-define the parameters of post-Cold War foreign policy and provides unexpected opportunities for the country’s foreign and trade policy.
The implications for the global petroleum sector — for trade, for shipping, for the relationships among crude oil streams — are also profound, as are the implications for oil prices, which will be weighed significantly by this profound change in the position of the United States. Perhaps the most significant change in store befalls the geopolitics of oil and natural gas, where there is a long list of winners and losers, and where win-win solutions for producing and consumer countries might well prove to be elusive and where bitter politics of adjustment could be another complicating element of the global geopolitical landscape.https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/ReportSeries.action?recordId=16