Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies.
Locked on 10/20/2013 7:06:09 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3081167/posts



Skip to comments.

Alan Greenspan: What Went Wrong
Wall Street Journal ^ | October 19, 2013 | Alexandra Wolfe

Posted on 10/20/2013 5:58:48 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

"............[SNIP]..........."I've always considered myself more of a mathematician than a psychologist," says Mr. Greenspan. But after the Fed's model failed to predict the financial crisis, he realized that there is more to forecasting than numbers. "It all fell apart, in the sense that not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it," he says. "The Federal Reserve has got the most elaborate econometric model, which incorporates all the newfangled models of how the world works—and it missed it completely." He says JP Morgan had put out a forecast three days before the crisis saying the economy was on the rise. And as late as 2007, the International Monetary Fund also said that global risk was declining. "A few days [after the crisis hit], I run into an article, and it is titled, 'Do we economists know anything?' " he says. .............[SNIP......."

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: academics; easymoney; economy; modeling
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-26 next last
Garbage in.

Garbage out.

For further evidence, look how modeling is used to predict Global Warming "science."

1 posted on 10/20/2013 5:58:48 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

What went wrong Herr Greenspan, is that we put you in charge of our economy and allowed your b!tch ass wife Andrea to spew her biased invective nightly on the television.


2 posted on 10/20/2013 6:05:11 AM PDT by Gaffer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

The Fed Reserve model apparently works as well as the climate change model.

Remember, when one works in the gubmit, it is most probably because industry wouldn’t touch them with a ten foot pole.


3 posted on 10/20/2013 6:08:29 AM PDT by Da Coyote
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
"...not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it," he says

The more Greenspan talks the more folks will remember him for the buffoon he was.

4 posted on 10/20/2013 6:09:37 AM PDT by AndyJackson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gaffer

Socio-economic modeling never works, and can never work. I picked that much up from Vidar Ringstad, perhaps the prime modeler in Europe.

It’s like training wheels.


5 posted on 10/20/2013 6:13:29 AM PDT by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/nicolae-hussein-obama/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Lemmie see, now.....

....what goes up.......

....WILL CONTINUE GOING UP FOREVER AND EVER, AMEN.

That was about it, wasn’t it?


6 posted on 10/20/2013 6:15:14 AM PDT by Flintlock ("The redcoats are coming" -- TO SEIZE OUR GUNS!!--Paul Revere)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
But after the Fed's model failed to predict the financial crisis, he realized that there is more to forecasting than numbers.

Any first year economics students knows that economics is about human behaviour, which is very unpredictable. That's why it's classified as social science, not mathematics.

And this guy was the Federal Reserve chairman? What an idiot.

7 posted on 10/20/2013 6:19:12 AM PDT by Jess Kitting
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

One thing that stays in the back of my mind is the timing of the crash — soon before the ELECTION.

It wouldn’t surprise me if there were a few elitist liberal Wall Streeters that knew it was coming and thought they may as well go ahead and get it out there to help influence the election.

I know the left likes to make it look like everyone on Wall Street is republican but the truth is more Wall Street executive dollars went to Obama.


8 posted on 10/20/2013 6:20:17 AM PDT by boycott
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
So someone withdrawing $250B from money markets September 2008 had nothing to do with it? It was a setup for people like George Soros to make fortunes of the “misfortune” of the masses. The government spending $13.4T for pork out of the social security funds was the fault of baby boomers?
9 posted on 10/20/2013 6:23:26 AM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
"It all fell apart, in the sense that not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it," Multiple warnings were out there, not single, so statement is true.
10 posted on 10/20/2013 6:24:51 AM PDT by Java4Jay (The evils of government are directly proportional to the tolerance of the people.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Hmmm ... government models were wrong ... how could that be ... they're government models ...

NOW what'll we do ?

11 posted on 10/20/2013 6:25:44 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof .... but they're true)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: AndyJackson

Buffoon? Come on. If you want to see buffoons, hang out at Walmart. You simply can’t get to a position like the Chairman of the Federal Reserve by being a buffoon.

What Greenspan is is a highly intelligent guy who has totally compromised whatever core beliefs or principles he once had for political expediency. He was once a follower of Ayn Rand — my guess is that he knows what is right, he just doesn’t have the courage to do it. He also can’t take responsibility for his mistakes—which is why he STILL can’t admit any culpability for the Housing bubble.

I suspect he knows his legacy has gone to crap and this is his last, lame attempt to save it. Epic fail, Alan—epic fail.


13 posted on 10/20/2013 6:29:38 AM PDT by rbg81
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Greenspan is like the airline pilot that announces to the passengers in flight that he never really knew how to fly the plane or how it got into the air but he going to parachute down to ask someone about it.

“I was actually flabbergasted,” he says. “It upended my view of how the world works.”

But don’t worry folks, he’ll have a soft landing.


14 posted on 10/20/2013 6:33:09 AM PDT by count-your-change (you don't have to be brilliant, not being stupid is enough)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

President George W Bush knew the housing loan problem was going to be serious. He knew that SS was a problem in the making.

The Queeah from Massachusetts thought other wise and forced the legislation.

Greenspan still has it wrong. The Fed could not overcome the Queeah


15 posted on 10/20/2013 6:35:32 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Travon... Felony assault and battery hate crime)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

I’m not sure how someone could be married to Andrea Mitchell, and NOT spoil like raw meat left on a counter too long.


16 posted on 10/20/2013 6:36:35 AM PDT by moovova
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gaffer

All the “major forecasters of note” have been created by the MSM, and they will all repeat the exact same thing.

Where I’m from, when someone is proclaimed to be an expert but doesn’t have the slightest clue what they are talking about but simple repeats what someone else has said, we call them BS artist.


17 posted on 10/20/2013 6:37:11 AM PDT by IMR 4350
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Greenspan: “It all fell apart, in the sense that not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it,”

but there was this institution sounding warnings:

http://mises.org/daily/1533


18 posted on 10/20/2013 6:39:12 AM PDT by MulberryDraw (That which cannot be paid, won't be paid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knarf
Every "fix" from the Obama administration has made the situation worse. Entitlement spending including food stamps has had to grow to keep people in the cities calm. Now Obama wants to take more money from the people by increasing taxes and refusing to reduce out of control spending.

It almost seems like a deliberate plan to lead us into severe confrontations with bankrupt state, federal, and local governments while forcing the people to earn less while listening to the rancor, name-calling, and malice from democrats, media, and progressives.

19 posted on 10/20/2013 6:47:18 AM PDT by Rapscallion (What he calls "transforming" is actually destroying.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Gaffer
Alan Greenspan: What Went Wrong

What Went Wrong: Alan Greenspan

20 posted on 10/20/2013 6:50:17 AM PDT by Common Sense 101 (Hey libs... If your theories fly in the face of reality, it's not reality that's wrong.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-26 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson