Posted on 08/27/2013 1:55:57 PM PDT by nathanbedford
What are our chances of restoring the Constitution through Article V?
Since we conservatives do not have the services of Nate Silver at our disposal we are left to our own devices to handicap the participation of states in any Article V convention. Here is my humble offering.
Statescape reports that houses of the legislatures in the following states are controlled by Republicans:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
Wyoming
In addition to these 26 states we might add Nebraska as number 27 with its unicameral legislature and its technically nonpartisan legislature but one which is regarded to be Republican.
To get a convention we need 34 states and that means that we must find 7 so we turn to the states with mixed legislatures and make judgments about whether they might vote for a constitutional convention:
Iowa 53 Reps/47 Dems 26 Dems/24 Reps
Kentucky 55 Dems/45 Reps 23 Reps/14 Dems
New Hampshire 218 Dems/179 Reps 13 Reps/11 Dems
New York 104 Dems/43 Reps 31 Reps/26 Dems
Virginia 66 Reps/32 Dems 20 Dems/20 Reps
Of these five states my guess is that 1 (Virginia) can be had; 3 (Iowa, Kentucky and New Hampshire) are reasonable possibilities; and one, New York, is beyond reach. Let us arbitrarily assume that we could pick up 4 of these 5 states with divided legislatures bringing our total to 30 out of the 34 required to trigger a convention to propose amendments.
The following 14 states' legislatures are controlled entirely by Democrats:
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Nevada
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Even a superficial scan of this list reveals that that it will be daunting indeed to find 4 of these 14 Democrat states to vote to dismantle a superstructure which keeps them in power. While we are on offense collecting potential states for our side let us not overlook the fact that the 30 Republican states we are putting on our side of the ledger represent 59 legislatures and the loss of only one of the 59 means the loss of the whole game. So we must also play defense to protect those 59 votes. The left will be looking for a few strategically placed but venal legislators whom they can suborn and flip. They will have a target rich environment of hundreds and hundreds of legislators with skeletons in closets, mortgages to pay, mistresses to mollify, drug, alcohol, and gambling habits to supply.
Thirty states in the conservative camp, or at least sympathetic to the conservative cause, represent a formidable bulwark against any possible runaway convention and certainly offer a nearly impossible obstacle to the ratification by 38 states of any proposed amendments which are repugnant to conservatives. Those who fear such a runaway convention should be comforted by this arithmetic.
Let's continue on offense to see if we can find some Democrat states that might conceivably be brought to Jesus.
West Virginia: the Democrats hold relatively sizable majorities in both houses but this is a state in transition, one that is been damaged by Obama's energy policies and one of stubborn, rural, independent yeomanry. I believe the idea of restoring constitutional government and the idea of an Article V convention would appeal to many West Virginians.
Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada: these three mountain states have slipped away from Republican states in national elections recently. Much of that has to do with the Hispanic vote, of which more later, but there is still a possibility that these rural, mountainous regions still have some sturdy independents among them.
Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Delaware: These states, as well is the three mountain states listed in the next preceding paragraph, all have one characteristic in common, they have relatively small African-American populations. Thus Nathan Bedford's first Maxim of American politics, all politics is not local but ultimately racial, is diminished in impact. That means that the impregnable base of the leftist coalition, African-Americans, which dominates states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. are not available to the Democrats in the same predominating proportions in these states. There is a different dynamic in Democrat-controlled Oregon as distinguished from Democrat-controlled New Jersey. Are yuppie, educated, environmentally conscious, good government voting Democrats of Oregon and Washington open to an appeal which says this is the last chance to maintain representative government in America? I leave these imponderables to the reader to judge.
If one uses today's newspaper headlines as the final context in which to go hunting for 34 states to apply for a convention (never mind finding 38 states to ratify), the movement will fall short. However, we must believe that it would only take one headline to change the context and change the zeitgeist overnight which might cause a quorum of the states to gather. In our history we have had flashpoints which have changed entirely the mood of the nation. The Boston massacre, Lexington and Concorde,Thomas Paine's The American Crisis ("these are the times that try men's souls…"), Louisa May Alcott's Uncle Tom's Cabin, John Brown's raid, firing on Fort Sumter, "remember the Maine," the XYZ telegram, the sinking of the Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, Churchill's Iron Curtain speech, the Cuban missile crisis, the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the civil rights movement, the women's rights movement, the homosexual rights movement, the election of Ronald Reagan, the fall of the Berlin wall, the stock market crash of 1929, the Great Recession of 2008, 9/11, the overreach of Barack Obama, these are but a very few of many events in American history which have entirely changed the course of that history, usually in ways that could not have been anticipated. Of one thing we can be very sure, the next black swan event cannot be far off. My bet is that yuppie voters in places like Oregon and Washington might just react to the proper stimulus.
We are advocating a convention to propose amendments according to the constitutional provisions laid down in Article V because we believe two very important realities: First, the American way of governance has become threateningly unmoored from the Constitution and the power elite in Washington who profit from the present situation are both unwilling and incapable of reforming themselves and restoring America to its constitutional inheritance. The state of affairs is believed to amount to incipient tyranny which is destined inevitably to become a very oppressive, hard tyranny. Second, if the Republic proceeds along its present course it will encounter disaster. The belief is that the Republic is hurtling toward a fiscal cliff which might hurl America into a very hard tyranny with the inevitable consequence of generations of poverty, tyranny and misery. Our society is disintegrating along racial and economic lines and racial violence is increasing to the point where civil disruption is not inconceivable. The current administration has turned its own institutions against its political enemies and is spying to one level of intrusion or another on every living American. Why, how malignant is the motivation behind this? It has identified people who would support the Article V movement to be dangerous radicals consumed by "hate" requiring surveillance. The Republic remains vulnerable to a catastrophic terrorist attack. Our relations with thermonuclear equipped Russia and China, already the world's number two economy and destined to supersede us, have deteriorated to something reminiscent of the situation between Japan and the United States in the early 1930s. As Obama squanders our respect around the world emerging powers in Asia might just stumble into a war because Obama causes them to miscalculate. Murderous, psychotic, conspiratorialist, jihadist Islam has succeeded in creating the outline of a caliphate running from Pakistan's border with China all the way to the Atlantic shores of North Africa and have set much of that world ablaze. A terror strike at the homeland is certainly possible. Any one of these situations and many more which by definition we cannot identify could loose the Black Swan which changes everything.
Let me indulge Nathan Bedford one more time and cite his second Maxim: Failed socialism is rarely reformed rather it is reinforced with more socialism. The left has long recognized this reality and has expressed it, "never let a crisis go to waste." We conservatives have let crisis after crisis go to waste. Like the campaign to defund Obamacare, it comes down to conservatives making a compelling case or losing the public relations war as well is the election. Concededly, it is difficult for conservatives to sell a package which says, eat your spinach, go on a diet, exercise, and vote Republican when the other side is offering sex, drugs, and rock 'n roll. Nevertheless the battle must be waged and won even in the teeth of a treacherous media who points to Miley Cyrus while the federal government freezes the federal debt level for 100 days and counting-or not counting.
The arithmetic is daunting, the playing field is clearly not level, the path is treacherous, the stakes are infinite, but there seems right now to be no practical alternative to supporting the Article V movement to restore America to its Constitution. Let just one Swan turn black and we might just get not only 34 but even 38 states.
Luck comes to those who make ready.
After an economic crash it’s just as likely that Article V would be used to pass the “Economic Justice Amendment” and give communism the veneer of constitutionality.
I just hope we get through the next five years.
Proposal:
There are two ways to propose an amendment to the Constitution.
Article V gives Congress and an Amendments Convention exactly the same power to propose amendments, no more and no less.
Disposal:
Once Congress, or an Amendments Convention, proposes amendments, Congress must decide whether the states will ratify by the:
The State Ratifying Convention Method has only been used twice: once to ratify the Constitution, and once to ratify the 21st Amendment repealing Prohibition.
Ratification:
Depending upon which ratification method is chosen by Congress, either the state legislatures vote up-or-down on the proposed amendment, or the voters elect a state ratifying convention to vote up-or-down. If three-quarters of the states vote to ratify, the amendment becomes part of the Constitution.
Would three-quarters of the states ratify an Economic Justice Amendment? No.
BTW, an Amendments Convention only has proposal rights, neither disposal nor ratification rights. That was the flaw in the scenario you designed for that third book.
I allow the political composition of the state legislatures far less credence than I would have a year ago.
I place importance here: However, we must believe that it would only take one headline to change the context and change the zeitgeist overnight which might cause a quorum of the states to gather.
At some point, a sufficient outrage will occur that cannot be ignored; party be damned. We conservatives will hopefully have sowed enough seed by that time to dominate the debate as to where the nation must go.
Because as he decreases the power of Washington he increases his own power. 1010RD turned me on to this concept some months ago. It prompted me to write a letter to my state assemblyman which explained why I want him to have influence over treaties, judicial and executive appointments.
Bingo. We can use the natural sin nature and power hunger of all men to effect a return to the balance of powers the founders so wisely constructed. People now tend to mentally visualize the Federal Government as this powerful entity at the top of a pyramid, that rules over all the rest. We need to replace that with a mental image of a set of scales/balances, with the Federal Government on one side and the States on the other. I think if State legislators can get that vision in their mind, some of them that may not initially be in favor, might catch the vision and get on board, for selfish reasons if no other. I think just the fact that State legilators are closer to "the people" in geographic location, power and every other way, makes them tend to be a little more responsive anyway.
Bingo to you!
Save your post. It explains exactly the necessary change in mindset. What ails us has been reduced to a sporting event; one side’s mascot is an elephant and the other is a donkey. “Root for your team” . . . not for me, not anymore.
Our focus must change toward our state assemblymen and senators who can, as you say, balance out the consolidated government that lords over us.
“What are our chances of restoring the Constitution through Article V?”
Zero. Not even a remote chance of this nirvana happening.
The 10th ammendment already exists. The states just need to use it.
I will work to bring it about, but I hold no illusions that this plan will prevail. I do not believe it will.
The process is likely to take several years, during which control of some of these legislatures may switch. As states are added to the list of Applications to Congress, the pressure on other states will increase. It’s even possible that whether or not a state will join could become an election issue in that state. In fact I think that would be inevitable.
The task is daunting, and obstacles will be artificially and naturally put in the way, but can it be done? Yes. It will require tenacity, focus and will.
But, we have these traits.
Wow. You are nothing if not glib. Maybe fatuous is a better description.
Anyone who comes within earshot of threatening what the globalists are so close to achieving will be “disappeared” before any real momentum stands a chance.
It isn’t Mark Levin alone who will succeed or fail in this effort, it is us.
It’s OUR job to get this done, no one else’s.
So then, what do you recommend? Low profile living as a slave of the leviathan?
Agreed. I’m tired of looking to Washington to fix Washington.
Agreed. I’m tired of looking to Washington to fix Washington.
Do not despair! I live in NC and this past election cycle we elected a republican governor and reaffirmed the republican super majority in the legislature.
This is the first time this has happened in NC SINCE RECONSTRUCTION! Since then, they have been rolling back the decades of commie democrat destruction on our fine state.
There is a long road ahead but keep in mind that 2014 could change things drastically just like in NC. Also note that we voted Obama in narrowly in 2008 and were a purple state. Now we are fairly solid red.
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