Posted on 07/28/2013 8:43:15 AM PDT by Perdogg
Obama: "...the economy is far stronger now than it was four and a half years ago."
...as long as one ignores the reality of the following chart...
We've seen macro "Hope" and micro "Reality", but for the man in the street, it would appear from the chart above that the trajectory for 'recovery' green shoots is decidedly down and getting worse... even as the President tells the American public they are so much better off...
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
Final GDP number out this week for 2nd-Qrt, it is going to around 1.8%.
It’s dead Jim !!!
The economy is growing at 1.8%. The federal debt is growing at close to 5%. Sooner or later you have to get the growth of debt lower than the growth of the economy. Good luck doing that with this bunch.
Thanks Perdogg.
Lew says stubborn Congress risks repeating U.S. fiscal wounds
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3048268/posts
Wow! I feel much better now that I can see the increased darkness at the end of the tunnel.
Remember that about 8 weeks ago they started adding about 3.5 % to the gdp bottom line by adding in government spending and hollyweird future receipts to the bottom line. I guess hollywerd’s big losses this summer will not be figured into the formula, as it would remove some of the benefit of cooking the numbers in the first place.
IMHO the “economy” is composed to several interlocking but totally distinct segments.
One such segment is the stock market. If you base your evaluation of the “economy” strictly on the DOW average the “economy” is doing great.
Another such segment is the housing market/industry. If you base your evaluation of the “economy” strictly on the hosing market/industry the “economy” is so-so.
Another such segment is personal disposable income. If you base your evaluation of the “economy” strictly on the personal disposable income the “economy” is in the crapper.
And there are several, dozen or more?, other segments that can be used to judge the health of the “economy”.
My bottom-line is the politicians are, again, cherry-picking the indice to base the health of the “economy” on. And unless they use personal disposable income as their indice they can lie to us with a straight face while the “economy” continues to tank.
Why do I base my judgment on personal disposable income? In my world I recognize that the economy is driven by personal spending habits. Without a person going out any buying something, major or minor, there is no market activity and the ‘economy” tanks.
It is the individual and collective fear of the total impact of “ObamaCare” that has stopped any future spending. That coupled with the reduced personal income that has reduced personal spending in the here and now that has stopped current future spending. And, until BOTH indices are changed for the positive we will look at a 2% GDP growth as “good news for the economy”.
More charts of the same ilk here:
If the number is 1.8% then the US economy is in actuality contracting. With total US GDP at about $16 trillion and with the FED pumping in $1 trillion/yr via ‘liquidity(QE3&4)’ this $1 trillion amounts to around 6% of total GDP. If every dollar injected is spent, by theory the US should be seeing ‘growth’ of close to 6%/yr. What happened to that 4.2%? I maintain this liquidity injection is masking contraction.
Fed pumping is helping the Asian economies, 2nd quarter growth in The Philippines is 7.5% or 4x that of the US.
I dispute that the DOW indicates the economy is doing great. It has moved sideways for most of the last 13 years. In the last 10 years there has been only a 5% CAG. In the last 20 year the CAG has been 7.7%. The state of the economy and the lack of productivity of the nation suggests that the very best we could hope for is about 7%. This is paltry compared to the 8 to 10% over 10,20 and 30 year periods of the last 140 years.
The market is doing worse now than it was in the dismal years of the late 60’s and early 70’s.
Let’s face it FRiend, the United States is dying or dead. At best we are virtually stagnant now. The growth of the market is funded by fiat currency printed out of thin air. We all know there has been no recovery and that this economy can’t cash the checks that have been written. We can’t go on supporting all these NON-WORKING and NON-PRODUCTIVE people. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE!
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay13/genX5-13.html
http://www.investorsfriend.com/return_versus_gdp.htm
If it’s from zero hedge, it’s always negative and the sky is falling. Waiting for the collapse . . .
OK I know things aren’t positive, there’s a lot of fundamentals that are not good, but in the mean time there’s money to be made. Why can’t zero hedge ever suggest a positive trend or a make money suggestion other than to echo the mantra of folks long on gold?
As I pointed out in a previous posting, there is something wrong going on when the GDP for the 2nd quarter is going to come in around 1.8% in the US but 7.4% in the Philippines.
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