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How Romney could have won the popular vote (It all came down to turnout)
Daily Caller ^ | 06/01/2013

Posted on 06/01/2013 5:31:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

White and Hispanic turnout fell from 2004 to 2012, according to a new study by the Center for Immigration Studies based on newly-released U.S. Census data.

Had turnout equaled what it was in 2004, 4.7 million more whites would have voted in 2012, of which 4.2 million were not college graduates, according to the study.

Obama received five million more votes than Romney.

“As Republicans think about how they can expand their voter base, the new data suggest that one of their biggest problems in the last presidential election was that so many less-educated whites sat home,” said Steven Camarota, CIS’ director of research and author of the report. CIS favors low levels of legal immigration

“These voters, who have been hit hard by the recession, have traditionally supported Republicans,” Camarota said. “It seems likely that by supporting the Schumer-Rubio amnesty, GOP legislators would further alienate these voters.”

To win the popular vote with female support, Romney would have needed four extra percentage points of the women’s vote (48 percent rather than the 44 he actually received), with each percentage point equating to 714,000 votes.

To earn the popular vote with blacks and Hispanics, Romney would have needed an extra 15 or 23 percentage points, respectively. But the statistics regarding whites demonstrated how closely the Republican candidate came to a plurality win.

With one percentage point of the white vote equating to 980,000 votes, Romney would have won the popular vote with a mere three percent greater turnout.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: damnlies; elections; flawed; flawedanalysis; obama; popularvote; potus; romney; romney2012; statistics
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To: SteveAustin
We need to dump the social conservative stuff

Lol, what do you think cost the republicans the election, you fool.

61 posted on 06/01/2013 7:26:54 AM PDT by ansel12 (Social liberalism/libertarianism, empowers, creates and imports, and breeds, economic liberals.)
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To: SeekAndFind

He didn’t get my vote.


62 posted on 06/01/2013 7:27:53 AM PDT by glorgau
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To: Innovative

Compromising with Socialists begats more Socilalism. Take your losing theories and MOVE OUT of the US. The problem is YOU, a-hole. You and Barry Soetoro are one in the same, losers.


63 posted on 06/01/2013 7:28:13 AM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Roberts has perverted the Constitution)
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To: SilverMine
He has to much of a pro-homosexual, pro-abortion, anti gun, pro obama care history.

During the campaign he would not renounce his 20 year effort to homosexualize the military and the Boy Scout leadership, he gave us Romney/Obama care and he ran as pro-choice, even running pro-choice ads in some states, like Ohio.

He was a nut case loser who was a disastrous one term governor who left office with 34% approval.

64 posted on 06/01/2013 7:32:58 AM PDT by ansel12 (Social liberalism/libertarianism, empowers, creates and imports, and breeds, economic liberals.)
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To: RIghtwardHo
Rush Goes On the Record with Fox News Channel's Greta Van Susteren (December 15, 2011)

Here's the big problem, Greta, for the Republicans. And I am a lone wolf on this. The rule of thumb in elections, both parties, 40 percent are going to vote Democrat automatically, whatever you do, 40 percent are going to vote Republican, automatic, no matter what you do. And in the middle, who do we have? The precious, God love them, independents and the moderates. And they are the targets. They are the focus of every election. And our brilliant campaign consultants tell our candidates they are the ones that know how to go get a majority of those independents. And we have, as Republicans, put ourselves in prison to this whole silly notion that you only win elections by moving to the center and getting great independents. Fine and dandy, but if you squander your base in the process, you haven't a prayer.

The Republican Party is trying to do something in this primary that is unprecedented. They're trying to split the conservative vote and win the primary with a moderate, with Romney. It's the other way around. You consolidate your base and then you move to the center in the general. The Republican establishment has decided they don't want any part of conservatism. And this is really not new. People are surprised to hear this, but the Republican Party formative event with conservatism is Goldwater's landslide defeat. That's what they think of when they think conservative. They don't think Reagan. They think Goldwater.

They believe what the inside-the-Beltway philosophy is about conservatives. They're racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, Southern hayseed hicks. They're pro-lifers. They're embarrassing to have to go to the convention with them. And they're just embarrassed to have those kind of people in the party. They're dumb. They're not erudite. They're not educated in Ivy League schools. We'll take their votes on election day, but we really don't want to hang around with them. We don't want anybody in Washington thinking that we're really that close to them and aligned with them. So in the process -- you know, it's a very sophisticated electorate. The Republican primary voter can sense that the Republican Party really doesn't like them, really doesn't want them, thinks that they are the route to defeat. That's the problem in a nutshell. The Republican establishment thinks that a conservative nominee is the route to defeat because they think Goldwater landslides are going to happen because they believe what the popular misconception the left has created of conservatives -- they think everybody thinks that.


We see this all the time from FReepers who have this ignorant beltway attitude. The only way to win is to become more moderate which means moving the whole country to the left. They whine about the "Extreme right" but never seem to mention the fact that the democrat party has been completely taken over by radical fascists. The moderates will lead us down the same path as the Vichy French because following the democrats leftward like cowering dogs is leading us to slaughter.
65 posted on 06/01/2013 7:38:35 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Willard was just unpopular is all...


66 posted on 06/01/2013 7:38:45 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: SeekAndFind

It all gets back to the fact that people couldn’t stomach a northeastern, milquetoast, liberal Republican statist, and had no motivation to get out and vote for him.


67 posted on 06/01/2013 7:48:12 AM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: SeekAndFind

How could he possibly compete against 148% voter turnout in some precincts? And I really don’t remember his campaigning in cemeteries or prisons.

The odds were so heavy against his overcoming the fraudulent voter returns that he didn’t have a Chinamen’s chance.


68 posted on 06/01/2013 7:52:16 AM PDT by laweeks
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To: SeekAndFind

He could have won if he ran as a Democrat with his record.


69 posted on 06/01/2013 7:54:19 AM PDT by EricT. (Another Muslim terrorist. Who saw that coming?)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER
The no brain, stay-at-home "conservatives" are just as guilty as the RAT-mafia for giving us four more years of Obamanation!

So they should have voted for a liberal/progressive just because he had an "R" next to his name.

Isn't it time we stopped treating self-governance like a professional sports league?

70 posted on 06/01/2013 8:01:57 AM PDT by EricT. (Another Muslim terrorist. Who saw that coming?)
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To: SeekAndFind
.....many less-educated whites sat home....

Rush to the contrary, lo-info voters are not restricted to the Democrat Party. In fact, our stupid are stupider than their stupid in that when they get confused, they don't show up. (I am not ignoring the fact that their stupid are fraudulently voted and do not have to bestir themselves.)

E.G., One of the loudest "conservatives" at my VFW bar turns out to be NOT REGISTERED. Others who were eligible did not vote. Now that, that is stupid.

71 posted on 06/01/2013 8:02:27 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk ("Obama" The Movie. Introducing Reggie Love as "Monica." .)
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To: SeekAndFind
I don't think he wanted to win the election.

Other than GWB, the recent republicans seem to be about keeping other Republicans from winning rather than winning themselves.

They're just there for show and to block and run interference.

72 posted on 06/01/2013 8:02:46 AM PDT by GBA (Here in the Matrix, life is but a dream.)
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To: Jim Noble
BTT

GOPe cannot rally
poor and working-class whites.
In an era of tribal politics,
whites have to have a party,
and they don’t.

73 posted on 06/01/2013 8:04:22 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk ("Obama" The Movie. Introducing Reggie Love as "Monica." .)
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To: Innovative

Unfortunately, it’s people like you who gave us Obama.


If that is the case then people like you are giving us amnesty.


74 posted on 06/01/2013 8:11:47 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: Rome2000
Pirates and the Mafia are small potatoes compared to the arch criminals from both parties in DC.

I like to describe DC as an ivy league locust swarm that thrives on eating us out of our livelihood.

75 posted on 06/01/2013 8:12:19 AM PDT by EricT. (Another Muslim terrorist. Who saw that coming?)
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To: VRWC For Truth

I would like to refer you to my post 54. It applies to you too.


76 posted on 06/01/2013 8:13:39 AM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: Kenny Bunk

Yeah, I heard Rush make a fool of himself too.

The high point of Republican popular vote was Bush reelection in 2004 with 62 million votes. Romney got just about 61 million votes. That’s one million, not multiple millions. And we’re to believe those million votes were all die-hard conservatives instead of just get-along-go-along types!


77 posted on 06/01/2013 8:19:19 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: SeekAndFind
How Romney could have won the popular vote.

By being a real conservative from the South.

78 posted on 06/01/2013 8:19:57 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: SeekAndFind

Please Daily Caller, can we let this go.

He may have won if he were a conservative, not this gay marriage and Romneycare type or whatever kind of republican you want to call him. Gosh, let it go. No more redo from Mitt and Ann. He attacked the other candidates but we don’t recall that, do we. His wife, Ann has been complaining of how they were treated by conservatives in her own party. Just go away, Romneys. Stuck- up liberals.


79 posted on 06/01/2013 8:24:08 AM PDT by Christie at the beach
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To: SeekAndFind

Interesting - it was turnout. I thought it was because so many, who hated Obama, vilified Romney. This is really ironic because every fault they found in Romney is magnified by about a thousand in Obama. Now they have no choice but to stick to their guns by sticking it to Romney in perpetuity.


80 posted on 06/01/2013 8:29:07 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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