Posted on 05/03/2013 5:37:30 AM PDT by Perdogg
Following the March NFP disappointment, it was only reasonable to expect a modest beat in this month's data which came at +165,000, on expectations of +140,000, and also following a revision to the March number from 88K to 138K. The unemployment rate declined from 7.6% to 7.5% beating, expectations of an unchanged print. The flipside, as always, is that the labor participation rate remained flat, at 63.3%, once again the lowest since 1979.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Just don't take your eyes off your positions. In fact, it's best to just take the hit on trading fees and close them out every day - the headline risk in the Obama era of indifference to Islamic radicalism is very high. And get the obsolete buy-and-hold thinking out of your mind - in this aristocracy of pull, today's high-flying CEO can piss off the government at any time and become tomorrow's felon, even if his books appear perfectly sound.
Me, I like the blackjack tables in Las Vegas better. At least the rules don't change by the minute...
It was definitely bad. And we thought $1.00 gallon gas was sky high.
From “Top Secret!”
Hillary Flammond: My uncle was born in America.
Nick Rivers: Oh, really?
Hillary Flammond: But he was one of the lucky ones. He managed to escape in a balloon during the Jimmy Carter presidency.
I think you have that backwards.
Nope. The number of UE is the numerator and that went down. The denominator is the labor force and that was unchanged. Therefore the unemployment rate (percentage of UE to Labor Force) declined.
At least back in those days most Americans knew that the Bolsheviks were our enemies. Now they are in the White House and control the Senate. I was thinking just this afternoon that we are now about 20 years or so since the Soviet Union crashed and burned. That is 20 years that young people have not had to live under the threat of the Communist red hoard. Kids born in the last 20 years, kids that were 20 and under when the SU went under (thus are 40ish now), have not lived under the Red threat. So, they believe this crap when the Bolsheviks in D.C. tell them. Thus, young Americans believe this commie crap. That socialism is the cure too all ills. They do not see the true threat of the Communist regime in D.C. They don’t know the threat of Communist like Stalin. Certainly the history books of today and the education system of today is not telling them who Stalin and the Communist are and what they did, murdering over 50 MILLION of their own citizens. Truly, America is doomed because the future is these young people who have no idea what true Bolsheviks and communism is.
Your statement is correct UNLESS the piano falls on your head.
The other aspect to consider is the question of whether you make money or not... WHAT will it eventually be WORTH?
Three minutes worth watching.
Ron Paul & Jim Rogers on the government:
"They'll use force and they'll use intimidation"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CmqIerOV3EM
Watch for this: If I were faced with cutting back employee hours or total numbers but I still had the business volume My next move would be to form a separate corporation . The old job for the old company might work 30 hours/week. The new company might work the other ten or twenty. Same plant-—two jobs——just punch out on Wed. and punch back in Thur. morning-————————————————————————————————and by the way, Who’s counting the graduates coming into the market this month and next? I’ve seen it before but a whole bunch of these new guys will probably be offered half-time or probationary jobs. Gonna be some disappointment out there.
Thank you Mr. Jeeves.
I will be taking your advice.
IHS Global Insight Analysis:
U.S. Economy - Data Commentary
Employment Report
April employment growth beat expectations, at 165,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%, as more Americans who were looking for work were able to find jobs.
- The April payroll jobs gain of 165,000 was better than expected.
- The private sector added 176,000 new jobs, while government payrolls fell by 11,000.
- Revisions added 114,000 jobs to the February and March estimates.
- The unemployment rate fell from 7.6% to 7.5%, as employment rose; the labor force did not move from its cyclical low.
The April payroll jobs gain of 165,000 was better than expected. The consensus called for a gain of 140,000, and IHS had predicted an increase of 155,000. Perhaps the best news in the April report was an upward revision of 114,000 to the February and March estimates. The March payroll gain was revised from 88,000 to 138,000 and the February increase was revised from 268,000 to 332,000. Suffice it to say, that these are substantial upward revisions. It is now clear that the initial March estimate of only 88,000 new payroll jobs was an anomaly and not a good measure of labor market conditions.
All the jobs gains were in the services sectors (an increase of 185,000), with business services, leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and health leading the way. Manufacturing employment was flat and construction jobs fell by 6,000. In both sectors, the December through February gains were strong, but March and April weakened dramatically. The average monthly increase in payroll jobs from February to April was 212,000, compared with 205,000 for the prior three months. This means that there is no evidence—yet—of a sequester-induced slowdown in hiring.
Based on the household survey, the unemployment rate fell from 7.6% to 7.5% for “good” reasons. The civilian labor force increased by 210,000 (after falling in February and March), while employment increased by 293,000, on this survey. The labor-force participation rate held steady at 63.3% in April, while the employment ratio rose from 58.5% in March to 58.6% in April. It is important to note that these ratios remain substantially below their prerecession peaks. All but one measure of the unemployment rate released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics edged down last month. Only U6, which includes people working part-time for economic reasons, rose from 13.8% in March to 13.9% in April.
One cautionary note in the April report is that hours worked fell to 34.4, from 34.6 in March (after having risen in the prior two months). While one month does not a trend make, sustained declines in hours worked can be a leading indicator of softer jobs growth. In fact, the impact of the sequester will likely be felt more in the hours worked than in employment, because many government agencies are cutting spending via furloughs rather than headcount reductions.
The much-better-than-expected April jobs report does not materially change our view that both GDP and jobs growth will slow in the coming months—our assessment of the outlook had already factored in a stronger April employment situation, compared with March. The full impact of the sequester cuts is yet to be felt and things will likely get softer before improving. Nevertheless, the April number provides a good starting point for the second quarter.
National Review:
Why the Good Jobs Report Should Worry the Obama Administration
By Kevin A. Hassett
May 3, 2013 11:44 AM
Last month, the chattering classes were sent into a tizzy by the negative surprise from the March jobs report. Economists had expected that job creation would be about double the 88,000 that was reported, because of the relative strength of other data. Our advice in this space then was to sit back and wait for revisions:
The report is not as bad as it looks. Upward revisions to previous months added a whopping 61,000 jobs, so the positive jobs news is closer to 150,000 for the first quarter as a whole. If one adds the fact that upward revisions are becoming the rule rather thant the exception, it is possible that March will end up looking as anticipated in the fullness of time.
Fast forward to today, and March was revised upward to 138,000, and the April number was 165,000, pretty close to double the initial estimate for March. Putting it all together, it seems clear that the bones of the data are pretty healthy. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are down to near their pre-crisis levels, layoffs are at a twelve-year low, auto sales have headed back to almost normal levels, and growth is inching up. There is even life in housing.
This means, of course, that the sequester is not crushing the economy. In addition to making the administration’s apocalyptic rhetoric look foolish, there was another bit of bad news for the Obama administration in the data. The work week dropped pretty sharply in April, from 34.6 hours per week to 34.4 hours per week. This may be the start of a trend that heads significantly south from here.
Anecdotally, employers are cutting back on workers’ hours, trying to get below the 30-hour threshold in anticipation of the arrival of Obamacare in its full glory, which will leave part-time workers unaffected. Buried in the industry detail, the two segments of the labor market most likely to be impacted by Obamacare, retail trade and leisure and hospitality, both posted noticeable work-week declines. This may be a blip, or it may be the start of a large shift that will significantly harm workers.
If it continues, we may well enter uncharted territory, where jobs are created but economic growth remains week, because so many existing workers are seeing their work week cut.
I don't disagree with this, but there is a lot of money to be made because of it.
There are a lot of fanatical bears that hang around on sites like Zerohedge and convince themselves that everything is going to implode tomorrow. They hate Obama (and fiat currency) so much they can't imagine anything good could occur under his watch. Obama is indeed a terrible President, but he and Bernanke have been great for stocks. This market may be headed much higher still.
I think we can look at Europe and see that it is possible for debt ridden economies to kick the can down the road much longer than people assumed.
sarcasm
I joined the Army in 1978 - I could NOT find a job, and I knew I needed an education, so I went that route.
It has served me well. So far. Not convinced of a rosy future by ANY means at this point. I’m living The Carter Years all OVER again. I really, REALLY feel for the generation coming up behind me...an education doesn’t even get you in the door these days.
We’re all so screwed...
Question:
Are the auto sales figures $$ volume or unit volume?
We went looking for a replacement vehicle recently (my wife’s minivan finally gave up the ghost) and were considering a new vehicle, until we saw the prices. Granted, it has been about 6 years since we were last “in the market”, but an “average” new vehicle is now close to $30,000, and there’s just no way we can afford that. We ended up buying a used vehicle with a good reputation, with 98k miles on it, and paid a lot more even for that than I had hoped...
At any rate, if much of the sales ($$) volume is from sales of expensive vehicles that the average American cannot afford, the “improvement” in auto sales is an illusion to the average person.
Yes, I noted that U6 ticked upward...
They miss the March number by 50K? I wouldn’t believe a damned thing out of this government.
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