Daily finance & investment thread (3-26-13 edition)

3-26-13

[dennisw]

Daily finance & investment thread (3-26-13 edition)

Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news

A number of people have talked about such a thread. Lets see how it goes. This is where you can impart some investment wisdom to

your fellow freepers. You can vent about the big one that got away. You can chime in how Obama is out to wreck American capitalism.

If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do

Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite precious metals blogs and sites

Apmex.com is a solid place with good reputation to buy precious metals Kitco is a good site for charts and other precious metals information

Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me

I might ping you to other interesting economic threads a few times a week. One per day maybe

[dennisw]

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[NormsRevenge]

DJIA up close to a hundred..
O must be golfing..
Uncle Ben is full speed ahead on the printing presses..

[NormsRevenge]

Wall Street Gains on Data as S&P 500 Nears Record

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-index-futures-signal-higher-083212248.html

Reuters

Stocks rose on Tuesday after data on home prices and manufacturing showed the economy continues to improve slowly, …

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housing and manufacturing driving the slow as molasses ‘uptick’?

[BipolarBob]

Not exactly a whirlwind recovery.

[NEMDF]

Don’t take any wooden nickels.

[MichaelCorleone]

I’m thinking of going long UNP. What do you think, Valentine?

[old and tired]

I’m thinking of going long UNP

Why? Because the Dems love the railroads? Increased cost of gasoline cutting into the trucking industry? Those seem like decent enough reasons but UNP is up $100 per share from its 2009 low. I'm no expert, but I wouldn't pull the trigger on UNP unless it dropped below $100. How about CSX?

[palmer]

The home price increase is based on very low supply in desirable areas, banks under pressure to be lenient, banks holding onto inventory, and some demand driven by the uptick in rates. People realize in the back of their minds that low rates are completely fabrications created by QE and have nothing to do with the market. When the market is finally allowed to price them properly, their mortgage will be the 10 or 15% that would rationally pay for the risk of lending to an American drowning in debt with shaky job prospects in a generally overpriced housing market.

Rising prices just make that dynamic worse. There's no way for rising prices, right now, to be a sign of anything other than a bubble.

[Jumper]

Home prices are a function of government statistics. Are these statistics and numbers based on a monthly rolling average, or are they a comparison against one year ago this month... somehow prices jumping 8.1% is just smoke and mirrors. If a republican was in office, it would be unemployment numbers, the price of gas, food, etc.

My alternative view about the markets are that WELFARE is driving up prices of stock by keeping the most expensive and preferred brands flying off the shelves, when most folks would not always buy only the best. Wal-Mart is a great place to test the Electronic Debit Card theory of what is bought....

[MichaelCorleone]

Thanks for your reply.

I’ve wanted UNP for a long time, and when it had it’s last significant pullback to around 80 I waited for lower prices which never came.

Since then I’ve been waiting for some kind of meaningful correction, but that also never came. And I just see it going higher and higher.

It’s a solid RR Co. I expect much higher oil prices (which I believe are on the way) which are supportive of RR’s, and the ultimate crony capitalist - Warren Buffett - took one of them private. BNSF I think.

CSX is cheaper, but it’s relative performance to UNP is not as good.

Anyway, that’s my reasoning.

[old and tired]

CSX is cheaper, but it’s relative performance to UNP is not as good.

But its dividend as a percentage of share price isn't as good as CSX's.

Then again, I have no business talking you out of it. I really know nothing about RR's.

[MichaelCorleone]

Please don’t look at this as talking me into or out of a trade.

Nobody knows everything, and I’m living proof of that!

This daily thread is not meant to do our thinking for us, but to stimulate our own thinking. You make a valid point regarding dividends, and I will take another look.

Thanks again,

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Um...Eeeek? Makes me want to pull out all my cash and stick it under my mattress!

http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-do-not-buy-at-your-own-peril

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“If Cyprus is not the final nail in the coffin for
trust in bankers, then you should put all your available funds into a bank, maybe even the Bank of Cyprus. March of 2013 did not just send a shot across the bow, the Emperors of the banking elite just sent a direct hit to any depositors dumb enough to keep any funds in any financial institution.”

[Pentagon Leatherneck]

" I expect much higher oil prices (which I believe are on the way)" Why do you expect that? I see (and pay) gasoline prices at $3.70 amd more in some places, which will surely do the annual summer climb, granted. But when they reach or exceed the $4.00 level, the squawking and conserving will rise and "somebody" will do "something" and the prices will stabilize for a while. Meanwhile, natural gas will continue to be cheap and will become more available as the distribution network continues to grow. And domestic sources of crude oil will slowly open up as political barriers fall one at a time. That's just my view; yours may differ. TC

[BipolarBob]

I feel the same way. The Cyprus deal really put the distrust in me.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

I love my Credit Union, but I’m thinking they may not have any say in the matter in the End Times that lie ahead.

I’m gonna start funneling my cash out of there...may even take the tax hit and liquidate an IRA I have and put that cash on the principle of my farm loan.

Too much to think about these days, D@mmit! Grrrr!

[BipolarBob]

My mortgage is paid off but I am still left to ponder taking hits on 401K and IRA and withdrawing them to do what? Survival food? Gold and silver? What will keep value in apocalyptic times other than food? What seems like a complete loss of sanity to a spouse when one tries to explain such actions? My wife (bless her heart) doesn’t worry, read the news or have a clue to any possible economic collapse. So here I am - paralyzed.

[MichaelCorleone]

The reasons I think higher prices are in the offing is that the ME appears close to some kind of major military conflict that is likely to disrupt oil supplies, especially if someone blocks the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time.

The continued decline of the value of the dollar.

This administration wants lofty oil and gas prices to ‘encourage’ the development and use of clean energy, so they should continue to make policy to accomplish just that.

But I know there are other offsetting factors as well, such as the ones you outlined above.