Posted on 02/01/2013 5:42:31 AM PST by Perdogg
The goldilocks economy continues as the unemployment rate comes right as expected, or 157,000, a tiny miss to expectations of 165,000, down from the upwardly revised 196,000 (was 155,000 previously), leading to an unemployment rate of 7.9%, higher than the 7.8% expected.
I don’t think Romney lost because of them. He lost because of demographics, vote fraud, and because the TV media has become 100% propaganda. Romney and the GOP spent too much time extolling the virtues of hard work. When the vast majority of people are either working for the government or otherwise receiving checks from the government, not even moderates can win.
‘Ministry of Plenty Alert’ *SNORT* Love it.
You mean the revised avg job growth, right?
:-)
If a Repub president had such numbers, they’d be horrible, of course...
But hey, that’s life.
You cannot deny that housing is a bright spot for the economy. Starts were up 27% YOY. Existing and new home inventories declined to normal levels. Vacancy rates back down below 2%. Home prices increased for the first time since the financial crisis. Household formation for FY12 was around 1.4 million. Everything in housing is moving the right direction, albeit from a very low base after the collapse.
Well every number comes out with a “flash” report (initial estimate) and then are revised later. Not unusual. Internally when we report numbers we have a “flash” estimate to get an early sense and then we release final numbers a few days later.
Absolutely right on if this was a Republican president, In 2004 job growth averaged 168K per month and it was a “jobless recovery.”
I have noticed no slackening in the number of home foreclosures listed in the legal section of the local newspaper over the last five years.
Terms not seen in the media since 2008
McJobs
homeless problem
recovery for Wall $treet but not Main Street
Very good point. I can't think of a single positive thing to say about our communist.
This bowl of porridge is too cold.
This bowl of porridge is frozen solid.
This bowl of porridge is a little below lukewarm and kind of nasty, but I guess it will have to do.
Housing is the bright spot but you are incorrect on the lending standards as banks are asking for significantly higher standards than the government requires. 780K housing starts in 2012 when the 50 year average is 1.5 million is anything but a bubble. Household formation was 1.4 million for 2012 which is above the 50 year average of 1.2 million which is why new and existing home inventories are back into normal ranges and even slightly below.
GDP declined because of huge decreases in defense spending. Consumer spending (71% of GDP) was up significantly. That being said 2% growth is anemic at best but we are not in a contraction.
Industrial production is almost back to pre-recession levels.
Capacity utilization is back up to 78.8% from the bottom in 2009 of 66.8%
US Household Net Worth is back up to levels not seen since 2007
US Corporate Profits are at all time highs.
Again, we are not in a “great” economy for sure. But it has improved. This is nowhere near where we were in 2008-10. It could also be a lot better if Obama would get the hell out of the way.
Of which the GOPe STILL doesn't see where they keep going wrong.
Even the the shock of the election didn't make them any wiser; their performance since then has been absolutely shameful.
Romney could have won, probably easily, but he didn't really try. Whether that was because of him personally or the wonderful ‘coaching’ from the party bosses I don't know.
Scapegoating seems to be the favorite pass-time of the Republican elites these days and, by extension, loyal party hacks. Stop trying to blame the people who want to return this country to its rightful place in the world. Conservatives are not now, nor ever were the problem.
More people out of work than ever before and the unemployment rate goes down - I guess Rush was right; Zero really is the Magic Negro..
Housing analyst Ivy Zelman had a report to clients on January 16 that stated: “Notices of Default were down 11% YOY given the improved delinquency pipeline and a continued focus on modifications and pre-foreclosure alternatives. We note that notices were also 36% below the level in December 2010 and down 58% from December 2009.”
Well, by a lot of indications, the economy, however you want to describe it, is about to be hobbled.
We’ve got PPACA kicking in, we’ve got whatever the admin does about the debt ceiling, we’ve got an Obama admin budget coming, etc...
We still seem to have a low workforce participation rate, we’ve got the swelling welfare and disability rolls, etc.
It’s also hard to believe there are going to be a lot of folks buying houses...
Is that real, or is it from banks making new arrangements so people are no longer “in default”?
Is it from the programs designed to let people off the hook who would otherwise remain in default and lose their house?
As I’ve said, Obama’s regulations are stifling growth and 2% is very poor but we’ve been at that rate for a while. It’s just not going to get better.
As for housing the key is household formation. Average housing starts of 1.5 million over the last 50 years are made up of 1.2 million new households formed per year and 300K teardowns, second homes, fires, floods, etc. Household formation during the recession dropped to 255K in 2009 and 444K in 2010 which delayed any housing recovery and why we saw 600K starts during those years. Household formation increased to 961K in 2011 and was 1.4 million so we are getting back to a “normal range”. As housing analysts say, “those people have to live somewhere” which is why inventories and vacancy rates have declined to normal ranges.
As an FYI I do FP&A and economic forecasting for my company and we participate in the housing sector.
“Everything in housing is moving the right direction, albeit from a very low base after the collapse.”
Yeah, especially here in Chicagoland /sarcasm.
The answer is “yes”... All of the above. The natural foreclosure rate is declining as the economy has improved (in 2008/09 when we were losing 300-400K jobs per month compared to 2011/12 when we are growing 175K jobs per month). Plus you have modifications and government programs like HAMP and HARP. Regardless the foreclosure activity (both real and shadow) have come down substantially from the peaks in 2008/08.
I’m in Atlanta which is still suffering from overbuilt housing and we aren’t seeing that much of a recovery. But on average nationally we are and that’s just not disputable. Interestingly places like Phoenix, Las Vegas and parts of California where the boom occurred, are showing a huge increase in land acquisition deals.
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