You are also correct on the tepidness of the "recovery" (I've never stated otherwise). 2% growth is pretty pathetic. To show the tepidness of the jobs recovery here is the famous chart from Bill McBride:
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Posted on 02/01/2013 5:42:31 AM PST by Perdogg
The goldilocks economy continues as the unemployment rate comes right as expected, or 157,000, a tiny miss to expectations of 165,000, down from the upwardly revised 196,000 (was 155,000 previously), leading to an unemployment rate of 7.9%, higher than the 7.8% expected.
“And when this financial charade implodes, life will be bad it will be the Republicans’ fault.”
But, but....
Arrogant condescending posters at Freerepublic laugh at your “conspiracy” theory!
Seriously? The population grows 200,000+ per month. We are not even keeping up with population growth. We are stuck in a permanent bottom. We fell, and we are not getting up.
The market is ignoring it...look like a repeat of the last time capital gains were raised. buy stocks till April then get out.
“The economy is not “strong” but it is improving. Unfortunately a lot of people here just simply don’t want to see it.”
Could you please elaborate. By what metric do you consider the economy improving?
GDP? - it just shrunk, not improving
Unemployment? - Static at best,but just creeped up a notch.
Labor force participation? (IMHO the most devastating and long lasting metric) - it keeps going down, down, down!
Debt vs GDP? - We’re in third world territory
The only bright spot in the economy is housing sales. But isn’t that how we got into this mess in the first place? Obama’s ‘Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’ has codified its new rules, and left the barn door wiiiide open. No down payment or credit check required to get a home loan (and all of the sudden the federal government is underwriting 9 out of 10 loans, so there is no risk in not running a credit check). Also, employment is not required (welfare payments count as ‘documented income’). The only restriction was a ban on interest only loans...except Fanniue and Freddie are exempt for 7 years. So to put it bluntly, the housing sector is being propped up by the imaginary creditworthiness of the federal government. Of course this is causing a bubble, which will pop.
So I have to ask - exactly how is the economy improving?
bttt
“118 k fewer jobs created in Jan 2013 than Jan 2012.
The rate of year over year job growth has fallen from 1.54% in 2012 to 1.37% in 2013.
In no way, shape, or form, is that improving.”
I agree...
Good time to disband the Obama Jobs Council. It was working so well anyway.
Paying people to stay at home to not work results in people staying at home not working.
Who would have knew?
I'm glad someone else sees this. We really are in bizzarro world.
Initial Unemployment Claims are released every Thursday at 8:30 am ET and have been for years...
The 4 week moving average of Initial Claims is 352,000. As a point of reference the average for the period 1967 until now is 363,000 which means this level of claims is right in line (actually below) with the average over the last 45 year average.
You are also correct on the tepidness of the "recovery" (I've never stated otherwise). 2% growth is pretty pathetic. To show the tepidness of the jobs recovery here is the famous chart from Bill McBride:
Unlike under any previous president none of the current economic conditions are laid at the feet of his policies. Understanding the msm loves his policies, but, they loved other failed presidential policies in the past and at times at least were honest about some of the cause and effect.
And, like foodstamps, the left would point at that effect as being a “good thing”.
Look at the chart I posted in 32. Also look at my other post about the Initial Claims levels being at or slightly below the average of the last 45 years. The “recovery” is slow by historical standards but things like housing are up big YOY, Industrial Production is close to getting back to pre-recession peak. Look, I hate Obama too but the economy is improving. If Obama would not have meddled it would have gotten back a hell of a lot faster. Also Obama’s regulations are stifling growth. We sure as hell could be doing a lot better.
You are correct. I heard something the other day about 70% of the job growth has come from low paying and part-time jobs.
“If today the country had the same proportion of persons of working age employed as it did in 2000, the U.S. would have almost 14 million more people contributing to the economy. “
“Compare 2010 with October 2012, the last month for which food-stamp data have been reported. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% from 9.6%, and real GDP was rising steadily if not vigorously. Food-stamp usage should have peaked and probably even begun to decline. Yet the number of recipients rose by 7,223,000. In a period of falling unemployment and rising output, the number of food-stamp recipients grew nearly 10,000 a day.”
Source
The wages of unemployment
http://www.aei.org/article/economics/the-wages-of-unemployment/
One month does not a trend make...
Average job growth for 2012 was 181K per month while average job growth for 2011 was 175K per month. January 2012 was the peak job growth for the year so in the F&A world we call that a “tough comparison.”
Again, this is not a “strong” report but it’s a good one. This is nowhere near what we were seeing in 2008, 2009, 2010.
Not sure I understand the food stamp info as I’ve never said that was a good thing and those trends are all in the wrong direction as Obama has massive expanded the program...
The issue with the labor force participation rate is that baby boomers are now retiring. No matter who was president that rate would be declining as the population ages and the baby boomers make up the bulk of the labor force.
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