Housing is the bright spot but you are incorrect on the lending standards as banks are asking for significantly higher standards than the government requires. 780K housing starts in 2012 when the 50 year average is 1.5 million is anything but a bubble. Household formation was 1.4 million for 2012 which is above the 50 year average of 1.2 million which is why new and existing home inventories are back into normal ranges and even slightly below.
GDP declined because of huge decreases in defense spending. Consumer spending (71% of GDP) was up significantly. That being said 2% growth is anemic at best but we are not in a contraction.
Industrial production is almost back to pre-recession levels.
Capacity utilization is back up to 78.8% from the bottom in 2009 of 66.8%
US Household Net Worth is back up to levels not seen since 2007
US Corporate Profits are at all time highs.
Again, we are not in a “great” economy for sure. But it has improved. This is nowhere near where we were in 2008-10. It could also be a lot better if Obama would get the hell out of the way.
Well, by a lot of indications, the economy, however you want to describe it, is about to be hobbled.
We’ve got PPACA kicking in, we’ve got whatever the admin does about the debt ceiling, we’ve got an Obama admin budget coming, etc...
We still seem to have a low workforce participation rate, we’ve got the swelling welfare and disability rolls, etc.
It’s also hard to believe there are going to be a lot of folks buying houses...