PPP: Obama leads in Ohio(+5) and Virginia(+4) (Also Obama up +2 in Iowa, N.H.)

PPP ^ | 11-4-12 | PublicPolicyPolling

[tcrlaf]

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. They don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50, Allen's is 42/48.

[tcrlaf]

This is the same pollster that explained away there huge miss in the Wisconsin Recalls by saying "We underestimated the amount of Voter Anger out there."

Ohio sample is 1,000 Likely Voters 43% Dems, 35% Repubs, 22%I (+8 Dems!)

The crosstabs show Romney favorability in Ohio one-point HIGHER than Obama's! Only 20% over 65, with 15% Under 29. Wow... What can you say about this??

Ohio 2008 exits: 39 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican, 30 percent Independent.

So, MORE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO TURN OUT AND VOTE FOR OBAMA in 2012, than in 2008??? REALLY????

[television is just wrong]

not what I’ve been seeing.

[tomkat]

             

[3Fingas]

All of these conflicting polls give me a headache. We shall see Tuesday if these pollsters were correct or just making stuff up.

[Smedley]

In Virginia I see 6 to 10 Romney signs for each Bronco Bama sign, and the Obama2012 bumper stickers are downright rare whereas NoVa was lousy with them in 2008.

I predict Romney will take Virginia by no less than seven. Call me optimistic, but I don’t see Obama taking Virginia.

[Dilbert San Diego]

We’ll know for sure on Tuesday night, but, it sure seems that they have been doctoring the polls, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is.

[Venturer]

Sure Obama is leading. That’s why Obama had 2800 at his last rally and Romney had 30,000 at his.

Obama is kicking azz . LMAO.

I sure will be glad Tuesday night when I have the real poll.

[tcrlaf]

I was at the West Chester Rally Friday night. no way that 25-30,000 people standin line for hours for a loser...

The electricity was palpable.

[oldplayer]

I’m sure Dims across the nation are giving one big sigh of relief upon their reading of this PPP poll.

Congratulations to the Dims must be in order (not!).

Oldplayer

[trappedincanuckistan]

+8 is ridiculous. +7 in 2008 was the largest turnout advantage in history if I’m not mistaken. Republicans are much more energized and likely to vote this time. Furthermore, although Obama holds an edge in early voting the Democrat turnout numbers are way down from 2008.

[Dilbert San Diego]

We’ll know for sure on Tuesday night, but, it sure seems that they have been doctoring the polls, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is.

[conservativepoet]

Well we’ve had a CNN poll today with +11 Dems and now this silly poll with +8 Dems.

MSM is really desperate to conceal Romney’s momentum. How do we know his Mo is still going? Look where Romney is campaigning (Blue states) and the size of his crowds in Dem territory (30K+). That’s all you need to know.

[Sarah Barracuda]

PPP...thanks for the laughs..what next, a poll from the Daily Kos..hey how about they poll the idiots who work at MSNBC..PPP is a far left polling group I am laughing right now at these poll results thanks for the laughs

[OrioleFan]

I’m headed to the Columbus rally tomorrow (from Dayton).

[Bobalu]

Bronco Bama

[epluribus_2]

Pass the model airplane glue - it worked well for y’all. Romney in a blowout landslide. I know it. Feels lime 1980.

[trappedincanuckistan]

I was reading some stuff about PPP and push polling at Twitchy the other night....one of PPP’s questions was “Who do you trust more to make the rich pay their fair share?”

[apillar]

Reince Preibus was just on Hannity and demonstrated that the early vote numbers for Obama in Ohio are down 260,000 from 2008. Obama only won by 250,000 votes in 2008. So even if Romney only performs the same as McCain on election day he would still win by 10,000 vote...I think Romney is going to perform substantially better than McCain in Ohio...

[Eva]

Rasmussen has a tie in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin and I think PA. He has Romney up one in Michigan and Romney clearly ahead in VA and Florida. I don’t remember about N.H.

[plushaye]

Dems are quietly fearful of losing a few more seats in the House. No media poll or MSM analyst is predicting that the Dems gain the House or even come close. So how is it possible that Republicans increasing seats in the House could happen at the same time when enthusiasm (as set by a D+7 or D+8 turnout model) is supposed to be higher for Dems than in the unusual wave election of 2008? This is pure hogwash!!