Breaking: Romney ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania by Four

Susquehanna Polling ^ | November 2, 2012 | Erie County Republican Party

[Arec Barrwin]

Romney ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania by Four Posted on November 2, 2012 by eriecogop

Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.

In the same sample Republican Tom Smith leads Senator Casey by two percentage points in the race for the United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania. Smith is at 48% to Casey’s 46% according to this poll.

Diana Irey Vaughan (R) is tied with McCord at 45% each, David Freed(R) trails Kane by 45% to 47% and Maher(R) leads DePasuale 45% to 44%.

This poll shows the highly competitive nature of all statewide races where there are no highly favored candidates and it also reveals that Pennsylvania is definitely in play for both the presidential and senatorial races which will determine control of the direction of this nation between two differing visions on energy independence, education, international trade, balancing the budget and support for small businesses.

[oblomov]

I referenced Tyrell since American Spectator was based in Bloomington until the early 80s. As you probably know, there are quite a few successful, conservative businessmen there (e.g. Sarkes & Tarzian) who were Tyrell’s early funders.

Tyrell was long gone by the time I came to Bloomington for school. I was very fortunate to have gotten to know Balint Vazsonyi when he ran for mayor. Like Tyrell, he had to leave Bloomington to pursue his next career as a political pundit...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Have we got a MAJOR disconnect here:

From the Link of the article that is thread header:

*******************************EXCERPT************************************

Romney ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania by Four

Posted on November 2, 2012 by eriecogop

Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.

In the same sample Republican Tom Smith leads Senator Casey by two percentage points in the race for the United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania. Smith is at 48% to Casey’s 46% according to this poll.

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But from the PDF:

**********************************EXCERPT**********************************************************

DATE: October 18, 2012

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See link :

260 posted on Sat 03 Nov 2012 08:05:47 PDT by Tulkas

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

A bit more from the PDF linked at post #260:

**********************************EXCERPT*****************************************

Following is a brief overview of our latest statewide poll conducted in the Keystone State from October 11th – 13th (prior to the 10/16 debate) with 1,376 likely voters. The poll was commissioned on behalf of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, with permission to release its complete findings. Below is a summary of key findings, followed by top line results and an explanation of survey methodology.

[onthelookout777]

See this update:

New poll shows Romney up by 4 in Pennsylvania;

Update/Correction: Poll is NOT new

Posted at 10:29 pm on November 2, 2012

... Update/Correction, November 3... from Jim Lee of Susquehanna...

“... Tomorrow the Pittsburgh tribune review will release a new poll they commmissioned us to do ‘post hurricane sandy’. It shows a tighter race...”

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/02/new-poll-shows-romney-up-by-4-in-pennsylvania/

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Apparently this is a very recent poll on the Senate race:

Trib Poll: Casey 46, Smith 45

Written by Keegan Gibson, Managing Editor

*****************************snip*********************************

The survey was conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research in Harrisburg from Oct. 29 to 31. They polled 800 likely voters at a margin of error of 3.4 percent.

[mware]

I was listening to Michael Barone last night.

He is the go to person on anything concerning elections.

He went out on a limb and is saying Romney will get305 electoral votes.

[mware]

Yes, that would be a very good trade off.

Ohio has 18 electoral votes PA has 20 (I think)

[Fresh Wind]

I saw my first pro-Casey sign this morning. One, vs. hundreds of Smith Signs.

I like this one:

“Casey + Obama-16 Trillion in Debt”

[romanesq]

A good friend moved down in PA earlier this year. Emailed me yesterday saying the suburbs of Philly would offset the city.

Spoke about his little daughter singing songs of goodbye to Obama. Said he’s very happy his vote WILL MATTER.

And he says PA is going to fall to Romney!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks.

[Fresh Wind]

I was 10 years old when Richard Nixon destroyed George McGovern in 1972.

I'm a little older, and got involved with the '64 election. I got my first lessons in media bias that year.

[Hugin]

My question wasn’t based on Mitt doing well in NYC, but if there would could be enough people not voting in NYC to offset the normal advantage over the rest of the state. Clearly there are a lot of Republicans and Reagan Democrats upstate, or there would be no Republicans elected in NY ever. What’s your feeling being in NYC as to how turnout will be Tuesday? I don’t think Sandy will effect the turnout that much uptsate. Mrs. Hugin talked with her family back there, and for them it was just another snow storm.

[Marine_Uncle]

Of course the polling was done in an area of the state where one would expect the Republicans to win.
If the Demo head master's cannot drive the lemmings to the polls in Philly this time around, PA. may just provide it's 21 to Romney.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Well if Susquehanna is the most reliable in PA ...then surely they must have a valid geographic spread including Philly....

Guess that is the question...!

[Eva]

Even the NYT had an article yesterday, saying that PA was trending Romney.

[Eva]

It not just a war on coal and gas, its Obama’s war the Catholic church and God. Many of those coal workers are Catholic and the evangelicals among them realize that Obama’s war on Catholics is their battle as well.

The Democrats sought to isolate and discourage the evangelical vote by their four year campaign against Mormons, but when the Democrats sought to drop the words, “God-given” from their platform, they united all people of faith behind Mitt Romney, a Mormon.

[Eva]

New Jersey voters have had with public sector voters, what about the Electrical Workers Union that turned away a crew of electrical workers from Alabama who wanted to work in Seaside Heights because they weren’t union members?

[Eva]

Where is Shady Brook Farm?

[Eva]

The NYT said that PA is trending Romney in their polls yesterday. The NYT does not tell Republicans what they want to hear.

[Alberta's Child]

There are enough questions about that incident that I'm wondering whether it ever really happened the way it has been portrayed.

Sean Hannity covered this story on his radio show yesterday and played a sound clip of a bunch of people yelling at "scabs" and chasing them away, and someone posted here on FR that the clip was actually from a Verizon strike in 2011. Hannity pretty much lost all credibility with me if that's the case.