Posted on 11/02/2012 2:34:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
Yes I’m pretty aware of that. But I like the sense of community here a d the discussions that can arise, sometimes it’s more fun to talk about things.
If it turns out he is right though, he will be one of the most sought after pundits in every future election.He is already that.
Barone came on and said, 'Wait a Minute' and proceeded to explain in detail why the exit polls were BS.I remember that. He went step by step, bell-weather precinct by precinct, explained what was happening and why the polls had not caught it. Made me relax. And at about 9:30 or 10:00pm, it was all over. Fun night.
You have to be kidding.
Since Dick Morris is almost always wrong, that’s a good sign!
Buuump!
The NYT admits that PA is leaning toward Romney. That could be the ball game right there. 20 EV from PA and 10 from WI and you don't need Ohio.
Poll ping.
I went over to DUh tonight and the contrast was amazing: here on this site we have people being cautiously optimistic about WMR winning, but over there post after post is already celebrating a zero win. I could NEVER be that certain about a victory until all the votes are counted. Unless they know something that we don’t know :( (widespread voter fraud/tampering)
Do any posts explain the basis for their optimism? Internal polls, exit polls of early voters, etc.?
None, other than Silver’s as far as I could tell.
I think there assurance of zero’s win was all based on their pure unadulterated adulation of zero.
We have a family member who is so adoring of zero that it is almost embarrassing, it borders on sexual (sorry, tmi horrid visualization). She talks about how much she loves him, but it’s not an, “I love chocolate cake.” kind of love, it’s a lovvvvvve kind of thing. Ick. It’s weird that he has such an almost cult-like following.
So maybe that’s where they get their optimism? Hoping that’s all it is.
The optimistic version of my prediction adds Nevada and ME-2 to what Barone says.
Your “optimistic prediction” is exactly the prediction I made even before reading Barone’s column: 322 EVs for Romney, with the 315 that Barone predicted plus NV and ME-02.
Well, I consider myself in good company. I hope we are right. I am too neurotic to be confident.
Have you made your final calls for Senate and House?
My official prediction is 248 Rs in the House (net pickup of 7, assuming that vacant seats belong to the prior incumbent)and 53 Rs in the Senate (net pickup of 6). In the Senate, I have Fischer, Berg, Rehberg, Thompson, Allen, Mandel, Mack, Smith, Flake, Heller and Mourdock winning, but Summers, Scott Brown, McMahon, Akin, Lingle, Hoekstra Wilson and Raese losing.
By mentioning Raese do you think that race will be fairly close? I wrote him off a long time ago.
No, not any closer than the AZ Senate race. But one can never rule out completely a candidate’s chances when his party will be approaching 60% of the presidential vote.
I just noticed that I forgot to mention Kyrillos as a Republican whom I don’t think would win. I certainly did not mean to imply that Kyrillos’s odds of winning are lower than Raese’s—far from it.
Wow, I made my own map last Tuesday on the interactive section of realclearpolitics. My prediction is exactly the same as Barone’s except I don’t think Romney gets Pennsylvania. I had Romney at 295. Great minds think alike.
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