R:49 O:47
4 ahead with Independents, 8 behind with women
Total approve: 49 Approval Index : -12
Right Track/Wrong Track: 38/57
HOWEVER, Rasmussen will release a poll today showing the Governor AHEAD in Ohio: 50:48! This is the first major national poll to show the Governor at the 50% mark and ahead in Ohio
NOTE: Many of the details above are internals and not available at the public link above
per NumbersMuncher
Rasmussen poll in Ohio has Romney up 2, 50-48. Last week was tied at 48. R up 3 among certain to vote. Has O up 26 among early voters (32%).
Zero can't get above 47%
Mixed news. Tightening nationally, ahead in OH.
Unless this is the “weekend effect”, Benghazi has had no effect on the national polls. The corrupt MSM has done its job well.
4 ahead with independents?
UH, no.way.
Romney is killing with independents.
Boy Rasmussen’s independent number for Romney sure makes big fluctuations.
Agreed.. the Indy number sure does seem volatile.
I think, at this point.... it’s clear that Romney did not help himself by giving Obama a free pass on Benghazi. He missed a chance to move that story UP, even higher in public interest.
Not pushing it, IMO, made Romney look a little weak, and hurt his numbers a little.
Here is Scott’s commentary
I don’t like these internals at all. Also, the sample 39/36/25 is not adding up either. I want to see where the numbers are at mid week.
Romney’s only up 4 with Indies (was up 23 on Saturday). And only has 88% of base?
Historically (even McCain), R candidates get 93% of Republican base. And in this election, it should be even higher.
Also, if you look at crosstabs, Romney’s numbers add up to 50 and Obama’s add up to 48.
Romney: Certain (46) Likely (2) Lean (2) (50)
Obama: Certain (44) Likely (2) Lean (2) (48)
Yet Rasmussen published the top line as 49-47.
What we can assume is that Benghazi has had ZERO impact, unbelievably.
Hi, I’ve signed up for Rasmussen Platinum. Where on his site do I go to get the information about the new Ohio poll?
Thanks,
Wiley
This is going to be the longest week of my life. Independents tightening? What happened over the weekend for that to happen?
If undecideds break 50/50, Romney wins 50.5-48.5 (1% other) nationally and in OH. I can live with that. Would prefer Romney at least at 52%.
In the last few weeks the Rasmussen and Gallup polls have shifted between Romney 52% and Romney 48%.
A 4% shift in a 130 million electorate represents 5 million voters.
Does anyone think that at this late stage 5 million voters, or even 1 million voters, are running around changing their mind every day? people with that mindset are the ignorant buffoons that we see on Leno’s Jaywalkers segments who don’t even vote unless it’s on the way to their tatoo parlor or SEIU meeting.
Polsters are now just covering their bets so that no matter the outcome, they can say “it was too close to call but within the margin of error” or “everything broke to so-and-so’s way in the last week”.
Rasmussen Reports - Senate Balance of Power
Held/Safe Republican 43
Leans Republican 4
Toss-Up 6
Leans Democrat 4
Held/Safe Democrat 43
At this point, an OBJECTIVE assessment would conclude Ryan will be very busy breaking ties in the Senate.
Looks like 50/50 to me!
Rasmussen now using D+2 model, no longer D+3. D39/R37/I24. (Was D39/R36/I25).
10/29/12
Romney
Repubs 88% * .37 = 32.56
Dems 13% * .39 = 5.07
Indies 49% * .24 = 11.76
Total = 49.39 (49%)
Obama
Dems 85% * .39 = 33.15
Repubs 9% * .37 = 3.33
Indies 45% * .24 = 10.80
Total = 47.28 (47%)
