What is more "disruptive"--a change in terminology or the most densely populated part of the US unprepared for what has been dubbed "Frankenstorm" because they are not hearing "Hurricane Watch" or "Hurricane Warning"?
This is headed to be Øbama's Katrina!
URRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT
FIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.
HOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT. ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL
SOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL
IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING.
THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS SANDY INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD. AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Didn't know there were that many cities below sea level, surrounded by levies, with stupid people who ignored warnings 4 to 5 day in advance, all up and down the east coast.
If Benghazi doesn't hurt Obama, a stupid storm won't either.
Politics aside where I live, hardly anyone is taking this storm seriously. I dont think people are quite understanding its going to be high wind, lots of rain for some 36-48 hrs. Hell some of the people I work with dont even know a storm is coming.
They’re warning us plenty about Sandy here in the swamps of Delaware, where we expected to take a direct hit.
If I hear one more “expert” tell me to buy extra batteries I am going to scream.
In the spirit of Katrina, let me be the first to say, “ people shouldn’t live along the coast and in places where a hurricane would hit.” s
Why are they considered in denial?
The assessment seems rational and reasonable to me
The problem is pretty simple, there’s a dual bureaucracy with the hurricane center and storm center with duplication and overlap. But the hurricane center which has the better handle on the storm is not allowed to keep predicting or even give out advance warnings for a non-hurricane. Sandy has already transitioned into a non-hurrcane (low pressure, large wind field)
From what I’m seeing around my little portion of NJ, folks are taking it very seriously.
We have been preparing since Thursday, gutters cleaned, everything off the deck, huge generator in place, water, toilet paper, milk & bread in house. We have plenty of grilling food and canned goods. Since we don’t live near the coast, we won’t be boarding up the windows.
Please note: We also live in the predominately Republican part of the state and do not rely on the nattering nannies.
In the mountains of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia, 1 to 4 inches are expected to be widespread with 4 to 8 inches forecast for elevations above 3,000 feet.
Much colder air moving into the southern Appalachians with strong winds and abundant moisture reaching the area from the remnants of Sandy will combine to generate a strong winter storm. the Weather Service said.
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2012/oct/28/hurricane-sandy-bring-snow-tennessee-mountains/
Been raining here in Southern Connecticut since last night. The local University I teach at (Not that one, the other one) is located in a shoreline town and classes were cancelled for Monday and Tuesday last night.
My biggest problem is that I have a small brook in front of my house that will flood my basement during very heavy rains and we have a lot of trees. Lost several during Irene last year.
This time, we’re moving one of our cars out to a near by parking lot with no trees, telephone poles of anything that could come down on it. With Irene, we had two trees take down our power lines which left an electrified tangled mess over our driveway. Luckily, my neighbor let us drive over his front yard so we could get one car out.
Went 9 days without power after Irene. Hoping that this time, we’ll be spared but if we did it before, we can do it again.
“This is headed to be Øbama’s Katrina!”
This storm is great for Obama. It is a huge story that distracts people from Bengazi and gives the media an excuse not to cover Obama’s lies, incompetance and treason. It also gives him the ability to play savior to the millions affected by the storm.
...so Zero is ‘monitoring’ Hurricane Benghazi...hope he does a better job for the northeast than he did for the Ambassador and the other three men in Libya...
There are a few ‘silver linings’ with Hurricane Benghazi...temperatures will be reasonably moderate, so there will be no danger of people freezing to death; no widespread ice and snow...