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Posted on 10/28/2012 4:16:30 AM PDT by Arthurio
As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.
The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat's advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
1) Minnesota voting Republican is every bit as fool's gold as Pennsylvania, and at least Pennsylvania elected Republicans across the board in 2010 and now has their Senate candidate in striking distance. In Minnesota, while the Republicans did take over the House and Senate, the Demorcats won the governorship (albeit from a GOP candidate who ran one of the worst campaigns in memory), and it's been predicted that at least one of the chambers will go back to the DFL and our DFL Senator is cruising to re-election.
2) On the other hand, historically the Red Star poll is about 5 - 7 off the actual results, and as has been mentioned, the fact that Obama is under 50% bodes well. Minnesota also has 2 constitutional amendments that seem to be in position to pass - marriage amendment and voter i.d. amendment - which obviously makes it favorable for a split vote as well.
Bottom line: would not count on it going for Romney, but for a state that hasn't gone for a Republican since Nixon, this is as good a year as any.
This is an interesting poll. When everyone was all up in arms for the D+9 polling I went to Minnesota’s history. In 2000 and 2004 the outlying portions of the state are predominately Republican ( Even Wright county which is the stomping grounds of HH Humphrey ) So like always high concentrations around universities tend to get the groupthink.
In 2008 that trend was halted and many traditional red counties went blue. I am inclined to think that is not going to happen again.
Unless you are in downtown Golden Valley or St Louis Park I would like to offer I see hardly any sings at all! Romney or Obama sings are few and far between. I think I know why.
In Minnesota liberals can be downright MEAN. So if you put the RR signs up you are asking for trouble.. but we have more than our share of Road Signs that say things like “ think things are bad now wait to see what Obama can do in the next 4”.
Remember in 2010 we kicked and cleaned out the Democrats and put Republicans in the house and senate. For some reason Mark Dayton became our govenor.......I know I know....but if Minnesotans had not put the Pubbies in control of the house and senate we would have an upside down budget and would never have been able to consider a new Vikings stadium.
So think of 2010. There is still that momentum.
This is an interesting poll. When everyone was all up in arms for the D+9 polling I went to Minnesota’s history. In 2000 and 2004 the outlying portions of the state are predominately Republican ( Even Wright county which is the stomping grounds of HH Humphrey ) So like always high concentrations around universities tend to get the groupthink.
In 2008 that trend was halted and many traditional red counties went blue. I am inclined to think that is not going to happen again.
Unless you are in downtown Golden Valley or St Louis Park I would like to offer I see hardly any sings at all! Romney or Obama sings are few and far between. I think I know why.
In Minnesota liberals can be downright MEAN. So if you put the RR signs up you are asking for trouble.. but we have more than our share of Road Signs that say things like “ think things are bad now wait to see what Obama can do in the next 4”.
Remember in 2010 we kicked and cleaned out the Democrats and put Republicans in the house and senate. For some reason Mark Dayton became our govenor.......I know I know....but if Minnesotans had not put the Pubbies in control of the house and senate we would have an upside down budget and would never have been able to consider a new Vikings stadium.
So think of 2010. There is still that momentum.
This is an interesting poll. When everyone was all up in arms for the D+9 polling I went to Minnesota’s history. In 2000 and 2004 the outlying portions of the state are predominately Republican ( Even Wright county which is the stomping grounds of HH Humphrey ) So like always high concentrations around universities tend to get the groupthink.
In 2008 that trend was halted and many traditional red counties went blue. I am inclined to think that is not going to happen again.
Unless you are in downtown Golden Valley or St Louis Park I would like to offer I see hardly any sings at all! Romney or Obama sings are few and far between. I think I know why.
In Minnesota liberals can be downright MEAN. So if you put the RR signs up you are asking for trouble.. but we have more than our share of Road Signs that say things like “ think things are bad now wait to see what Obama can do in the next 4”.
Remember in 2010 we kicked and cleaned out the Democrats and put Republicans in the house and senate. For some reason Mark Dayton became our govenor.......I know I know....but if Minnesotans had not put the Pubbies in control of the house and senate we would have an upside down budget and would never have been able to consider a new Vikings stadium.
So think of 2010. There is still that momentum.
Dayton was elected (barely) because a former Republican ran as a third party candidate and siphoned off just enough votes to be a spoiler.
Whoa! MN has not gone GOP since 1972! Obama is in huge trouble when deep blue MN is in play!
Early voting also provides the opportunity to come back and vote again.. and again.. and again.. as opposed to voting just once on election day.
Until yesterday the Des Moines Register hadn't gone for a Republican since Nixon.
“My staunch Dem, Minnesota lawyer step-daughter is not fond of Obama. Ditto for her husband who would vote for a Republican but doesn’t like Romney. My all-pubbies-are-evil step-daughter will vote for Obama but reluctantly.”
See if you can subtlety suggest the virtues of 3rd party candidates are no vote at all :)
38/33/29
The sampling is probably just right.
The mental picture I have of the residents of Minnesota is hardy, self-reliant, big on personal responsibility, willing to lend a hand to a neighbor, outdoor enthusiasts and hunters, believers in the Divine.
Sam Campbell nature books. Guess there are not so many of those folks now.
I know Obama is in trouble when all my liberal friends are lamenting the need for a third party. They would go to the mat for Obama a year ago but now that he has an indefensible record they are lost.
If Minnesota goes Republican I would wager California will go that way as well...which means that the house and senate are also in play for the Pubbies. I mean that! Why do you think Pelosi and Reid have been so quiet?...lay low and hope the storm does not take them out as well.
In other news--stepkids--aren't they wonderful? (tongue planted firmly in cheek)
I have posted two brief comments on the StarTribulation web site, and the censors have shot them down. Both are jabs at the Sec. of State, Mark Ritchie, (D-Acorn). My point is that Franken and Dayton both won by just enough votes.
Well over on Daily Kos, the staunch leftists are insisting Romney is gonna win Ohio, North Carolina and Ohio, and also that the media was too biased towards Romney in the 3 debates and that clearly Obama won the 2nd and 3rd one. Sounds absurd and inane, I know, but that is what they are saying : http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151644/-AP-Analysis-Obama-is-poised-to-win-the-election
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151644/-AP-Analysis-Obama-is-poised-to-win-the-election
About 90% of the comments are about race.
What is the matter with these people?
Nevertheless, this is the Minnesota Poll. It's owned by the Minneapolis Star and Tribune. They only poll Democrats i.e. Romney is within three among Democrats.
If you can ever elininate fraud in Minnesota, a conservative can have a respectable if losing result.
Socialists will always be socialists no matter if they are called National Socialists or Democrats
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