How Hurricane Sandy Could Affect the Election in PA

PoliticsPA ^ | Oct 27, 2012 | How Hurricane Sandy Could Affect the Election in PA

[11th_VA]

Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm, is forecast to slam all of Pennsylvania from Monday through Wednesday. Effects like heavy wind and rain are expected across the state, including heavy snow in western Pa.

Hopefully for everyone’s sake, the doomsday predictions won’t come true. But if the worst happens, it will have political consequences as well as humanitarian ones.

Here’s why the storm is news bad for Democrats:

Philadelphia

The City of Brotherly Love is straight in the path of the storm, and some predictions indicate that Philly could see as much as 8-10 inches of rain in the 48 hours it takes to storm to move through. Flooding and power outages could affect the region for days.

It goes without saying that Philadelphia is Democrats’ base in Pa., and statewide candidates are relying on strong turnout there to seal the deal.

GOTV

Both parties boast a strong get-out-the-vote apparatus, but the reality is that Democrats are far more organized in Pennsylvania. Republicans compensate for it because their voters generally require less coaxing and are more likely to turn out any given election.

But because they have such an edge, Democrats are relying more on their field program. GOTV is a science for team Obama and they have calculated how many times they need to call, mail, email and knock on the doors of their supporters to boost turnout. A large natural disaster, which could knock out power and telephone service for large areas, could throw a wrench in all of that.

Plus, many down-ballot Dems in Pa. are relying on his field operation.

The Corbett Effect

For statewide and legislative candidates on the Dem side, tying their opponents to Gov. Tom Corbett has been political gold. But that dynamic could change in an instant, as it did after the catastrophic Pa. floods of 2011. Voters overwhelmingly agreed Corbett handled that disaster well, and he earned an immediate and significant bump in the polls – including a sharp spike in northeast Pa., the area most affected by the flooding.

Last-minute campaign messaging is already in production or on its way out the door. Any campaign ads or literature that use Corbett as a bogeyman, should 2011 repeat itself, will not be nearly as effective and could even backfire.

Here’s why the storm is bad news for Republicans:

Looking Presidential

Managing a natural disaster is one of the most visible roles of the federal government and the President. Just like Corbett, President Obama could see a bump in Pa. if the perception is that he’s doing a good job managing the storm and its effects.

If the worst happens, don’t be surprised to see the President on the ground in Pa. for a post-disaster press conference and photo op.

Disaster Coverage

Flip on any cable news station, and you’ll see how quickly coverage can change. Where for the past two weeks the cameras have been on the candidates 24/7, now the news is split between the campaign and Sandy. In the event of a disaster the campaign will get far less airtime.

Negative ads also run a higher risk of seeming tone deaf

That means it will be harder for any candidate looking to close the gap in the final week. In Pa., Mitt Romney, Tom Smith and Dave Freed are all playing catch up with their Democratic opponents. They’ll have less news coverage and less earned media if the Pa. press switches focus to a disaster.

TV Ads

Going along with the idea that Republicans are running from behind in Pa., it goes without saying that if there are widespread power outages that television ads and spending will be nullified.

Conversely, campaigns able to afford ads on local news channels will see more bang for their buck as larger segments of the population tune in.

[tomkat]

Our local Wally's (Union Cty) had run out of bottled water early this afternoon when I went in to p/u a site-to-store order, per one of the senior clerks.

But they get trucks in every night, so panic buyers will still be able to clean the place out another time or two .. LOL

[11th_VA]

I think the biggest threat is power outages. Northern VA won't be fully up before election day. The winds are predicted to be 100 mph 1 mile up, and tall buildings are going to get 'ripped' by the edy's created by wind tunnels - so the experts say.

We're being told this storm is different - something we haven't dealt with before - we'll see ...

[Mr. Wright]

Is G.W. directing the storm to travel over PA, much like he did in New Orleans. I’ll bet he is secretly working with the CIA, unbeknownst to Obama, to have the storm hit directly in Philadelphia. That way, Obama can blame the small turnout in the City of Brotherly Love on Bush. He can also blame a loss of PA’s electoral votes on Bush.

[dirtboy]

The real issue with this storm and its impact on the election is long-term power outages that could impact voting.

[FUBO]

Wow.

I work at the agency where the “Frankenstorm” name came from and I am no Obama-loving liberal. The man who coined the Frankenstorm name is a Republican. I will grant you that the storm won’t have actual hurricane force winds when it makes landfall. But I can also assure you the rainfall forecasts come out of numerical models are showing a lot of rain, up to 10 inches in spots.

[Mrs. Don-o]

Fiendish! ;o)

[11th_VA]

[American Constitutionalist]

Nothing puts the fear of God in the Philly Blackpanthers as Hurricane Sandy does... YOU GO GIRL !!

[rurgan]

Yeah sure a “storm” that is barely hurricane status now: and as you know its wind speed will reduce greatly over the cold water of the north and they are calling it “the storm of the century” . and you defend this tyranny? I was here for katrina , 175 mph winds, 41 foot storm surge , Katrina makes this sandy look like nothing even with all the fake hype. Obama and the media are trying to destroy freedom and America by fixing the election with this fake October surprise called sandy . I call them out on it to warn people so I’m an enemy now is that it? you forget i live on the gulf of mexico . during katrina it was august , water was close to 90 degrees. you should know this will be no storm of the century . i think you are for obama. here’s a clue: socialism doesn’t work and we need to defeat this Obama and turn back your 13,000 pages of government regulations of Obama care.

[hosepipe]

Sandy is a popcorn fart.. merely a gale.. a big thunderstorm...
BUT it is a diversion from Bengazi where the President showed his cowardice..

OR worse him arming Al-Queda in Libya, Egypt and Syria..
which would be viewed by most not all but most blacks as a good thing..

Since most blacks despise America.. not all but most..

[Pollster1]

In this case the weather is probably even more our friend than usual. Like most conservatives, I would canoe or swim to the polls after going a week without a shower or hot food - and walk out as happy as can be. What fraction of Obama voters are as motivated?

[presently no screen name]

Tues/Wed, that’s still a week before election.

Exactly. Now sure what all the fuss is about.

[presently no screen name]

Tues/Wed, that’s still a week before election.

Exactly. Now sure what all the fuss is about.

[OrangeHoof]

In bad weather the edge goes to the more determined voter groups. I think that gives the edge to the GOP. If it matters enough to you to change this country that you’ll face 50 mph winds and flooded streets, you’re more likely to vote than the fat happy status quoers.

[ntnychik]

The problem is Sandy is running into a nor’easter. The problem isn’t so much the wind, but days of torrential rain in an area prone to flooding anyway.

[rurgan]

Why do you all trust anything that the government or media say in the first place?

You do know that a lot of the forecasts and data for this “storm” originate with an Obama government agency called NOAA?

You don't find it a bit coincidental that the “storm of the century” as the media and gov say suddenly appears when Obama needs to get bengazhi gate off of the news?

I do. it's all lies . this is not the storm of the century, not even a huge storm. I guess you believe the fake unemployment numbers, global warming etc.

Here ‘s a clue this is the most crucial time in the election. This is an October surprise to get bengazi gate off of the news

[ConservativeInPA]

Sorry. It won’t make a difference. Maybe five or six days later, but not a week before the election ... Unless we can get the 47% so drunk and high during the storm that they will sleep,through the election.

[ntnychik]

If it’s a big storm, 0 will milk it for sure, esp. if it rains or snows in OH. If the storm is minor, there’s nothing to fake acting presidential about.

You’re correct that Sandy gives an excuse for the MSM to avoid investigating or reporting on the treasonous abandonment of our men in Benghazi. They weren’t covering it anyway. You’re incorrect about your assumptions about me.

I’m in the Sandy/nor’easter zone and will know firsthand what the weather is Mon. and Tues.