Posted on 10/27/2012 2:36:48 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm, is forecast to slam all of Pennsylvania from Monday through Wednesday. Effects like heavy wind and rain are expected across the state, including heavy snow in western Pa.
Hopefully for everyone’s sake, the doomsday predictions won’t come true. But if the worst happens, it will have political consequences as well as humanitarian ones.
Here’s why the storm is news bad for Democrats:
Philadelphia
The City of Brotherly Love is straight in the path of the storm, and some predictions indicate that Philly could see as much as 8-10 inches of rain in the 48 hours it takes to storm to move through. Flooding and power outages could affect the region for days.
It goes without saying that Philadelphia is Democrats’ base in Pa., and statewide candidates are relying on strong turnout there to seal the deal.
GOTV
Both parties boast a strong get-out-the-vote apparatus, but the reality is that Democrats are far more organized in Pennsylvania. Republicans compensate for it because their voters generally require less coaxing and are more likely to turn out any given election.
But because they have such an edge, Democrats are relying more on their field program. GOTV is a science for team Obama and they have calculated how many times they need to call, mail, email and knock on the doors of their supporters to boost turnout. A large natural disaster, which could knock out power and telephone service for large areas, could throw a wrench in all of that.
Plus, many down-ballot Dems in Pa. are relying on his field operation.
The Corbett Effect
For statewide and legislative candidates on the Dem side, tying their opponents to Gov. Tom Corbett has been political gold. But that dynamic could change in an instant, as it did after the catastrophic Pa. floods of 2011. Voters overwhelmingly agreed Corbett handled that disaster well, and he earned an immediate and significant bump in the polls – including a sharp spike in northeast Pa., the area most affected by the flooding.
Last-minute campaign messaging is already in production or on its way out the door. Any campaign ads or literature that use Corbett as a bogeyman, should 2011 repeat itself, will not be nearly as effective and could even backfire.
Here’s why the storm is bad news for Republicans:
Looking Presidential
Managing a natural disaster is one of the most visible roles of the federal government and the President. Just like Corbett, President Obama could see a bump in Pa. if the perception is that he’s doing a good job managing the storm and its effects.
If the worst happens, don’t be surprised to see the President on the ground in Pa. for a post-disaster press conference and photo op.
Disaster Coverage
Flip on any cable news station, and you’ll see how quickly coverage can change. Where for the past two weeks the cameras have been on the candidates 24/7, now the news is split between the campaign and Sandy. In the event of a disaster the campaign will get far less airtime.
Negative ads also run a higher risk of seeming tone deaf
That means it will be harder for any candidate looking to close the gap in the final week. In Pa., Mitt Romney, Tom Smith and Dave Freed are all playing catch up with their Democratic opponents. They’ll have less news coverage and less earned media if the Pa. press switches focus to a disaster.
TV Ads
Going along with the idea that Republicans are running from behind in Pa., it goes without saying that if there are widespread power outages that television ads and spending will be nullified.
Conversely, campaigns able to afford ads on local news channels will see more bang for their buck as larger segments of the population tune in.
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF SANDY ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN VCNTY OF STATE COLLEGE BY WED MORNING.
THIS PATH IS VERY OMINOUS FOR THE LARGE POPULATION AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH BANDS OF SQUALLS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IMPACTING THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY ALSO BE A SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO THREAT NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE EVENTUAL LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
No mention of the ‘flash mobs’ or looting in the article, but definitely possible in this situation as well ...
Historically, bad weather at election time is Republican weather.
Yes it is.
Uh oh....bad news for the Dems if the Black Panthers can’t get out to threaten the voters.
Flash mobs and criminal activity usually rely on good weather. Some folks just don’t like to get wet or cold. The election will be fine in Pa. The same dead Democrats in Philly will vote as well as the 150 people voting from the same vacant lot. Will the Black Panthers be out? Probably. No chance of anyone doing anything about them.
What if courts allow polls in Philly to stay open for an extra day or more due to power outages?
Yes but Obama may get a poll bump from his response maybe. Doubt it...but maybe.
Caught one blurb on adding a voting day but that’s all. God is in charge of His own, how ever all things turn out, including this storm.
NOAA and NHC are federal government agencies under Obama.
These forecasts are pure bs intended to get bengazi gate off of the news as they have done even on drudge. This is no frankenstorm , it will just be some light rain if that.
You all can let the media terrorize you .But aren’t these forecasts for a “perfect storm” from noaa.GOV?Yes and doesn’t a plane from the NATIONAL hurricane center go there to make sure the winds are 75 miles per hour ,exactly just barely above hurricane status? Yes . funny how the unemployment rate was just below 8% at the exact time Obama needed that to get Romney stop talking about 8% unemployment , funny how economic growth was suddenly just 2.0% not 1.9% , the gov and media are doing an all out blitz on the sheep and all are believing it even on here and on Drudge. This is the October surprise
Posted: Sep 13, 2011 2:17 PM EDT
A dozen people have been charged with looting homes as residents were ordered to evacuate because of massive flooding affecting parts of northeastern Pennsylvania last week. Prosecutors in Luzerne County say burglary charges can be more severe if the crimes occur during a state of emergency like an evacuation. District Attorney Jackie Musto Carroll called the looting "despicable" because residents had already been victimized of the flooding. In one case, police say a woman tasked with watching a neighbor's home stole a big-screen television, a computer and various other items. In another, two men allegedly stole a shotgun, two rifles, watches, computers and tools.
Surely this has happened in the past? What happened during other election years when there has been a weather catastrophe?
We’re in PA in the path of the storm, and the stores are seeing plenty of customers anticipating it, stocking up.
If it turns up as expected, Tues/Wed, that’s still a week before election.
Generally speaking, even serious flooding is forgotten after a week, never mind cleaned up fully.
PA is accustomed to wet weather and false alarms too.
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NOAA are the ones who get the “data” that say it is even 75 mph winds which make it a hurricane. funny how it is just barely over the limit to make it a hurricane huh and at the height of an election, to cover for bengazi gate, funny huh?
This is the October surprise and it's called sandy. And all frreepers , drudge everyone falling for it.
Lazy a## rats won’t come out in the rain. NOTHING is going to stop GOP voters from getting to the polls...
It’s just so perfect!
Evil Republicans cue up the Halliburton machine, and use global warming to cause a HUGE storm on election day thus suppressing poverty Stricken Democrats without transport from turning out and voting, thus ensuring PA goes pubby, and with the increased coal emissions from PA, more global warming, etc!
Self-perpetuating evil Republicans!
It’s almost as good as the open-the-borders-let-illegal-aliens-in-and-vote-without-documentation-keeping more-Dems-in-office-open-the-borders-more-cycle the Dems have going.
Not quite as good, but it’s a start.
AND THIS IS THE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I believe that if the "turnout" for inner-city DemocRATS is not up Obama's expectations due to the storm, you can expect so much Democrat Party Media whining and crying about "discrimination" that the corrupt Democrat Party Courts will keep the polls open all month if necessary to pull Penn. for Obama. There will be no end to the "count every vote" Jesse Jackson types to keep counting and recounting the "votes."
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