Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 27, 2012 (Senate Slowly Swinging)

Rasmussen Reports Polling Data ^ | October 27, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

October 20, 2012
October 13, 2012
August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

The Race for the White House

Since the last report, Romney is finally pulling ahead of Obama. Obama's Electoral College count has gone down from 259 to 243 Electoral Votes. Romney has risen from 248 to 261, leaving 34 EV up for grabs. Romney's lead is soft, however, because he has to defend 48 Leaning Electoral Votes to Obama's 6. Obama has a stronger base of 237 Electoral Votes to Romney's 217.

If the election were held today, the race would be nearly tied. Probabilistically, Romney has 266 Electoral Votes, and a 44% chance of winning, up from 36% last week. If I add a Democrat bias adjustment to the model, Romney has 291 EV (and a P90 of 317) with an 85% chance of winning.

This week, Rasmussen polled Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Let's look at each state.

In Arizona, Romney sustained his 52% support, while Obama gained +2% from a late September poll to 44%. Arizona remains Safe for Romney.

In Colorado, Romney is pulling ahead of Obama. Romney gained +1% from two weeks ago to 50%. Obama lost -2% to 46%. Colorado moves from Toss-up to Strong for Romney, giving Romney 9 Electoral votes.

In Florida, the race tightened again this week. Romney lost -1% to 50%, and Obama gained +2% to 48%. Florida downgrades from Strong to Leans for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney gained +1% and Obama lost -1% from two weeks ago. Iowa is now tied at 48%, and moves from Leans Obama to Toss-up, and takes away 6 Electoral votes from Obama.

In Nevada, a re-poll from last week shows Obama sustaining his 50%, but Romney gained +1% to 48%. Nevada remains Leans Obama.

In New Hampshire, another re-poll from last week reverses the positions of Obama and Romney. Obama falls from 50% to 48%, while Romney gains from 49% to 50%. New Hampshire moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney, adding another 4 Electoral Votes for Romney.

In North Carolina, yet another re-poll from last week shows the state is unchanged at 52%-46% for Romney. North Carolina remains Strong for Romney.

In Ohio, a re-poll from last week shows Obama losing his +1% lead. Romney remained steady, making Ohio tied at a 48% Toss-up.

In Pennsylvania, the state is unchanged from two weeks ago. Obama still leads by 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.

In Virginia, the fourth consecutive week of polling has Romney holding onto his 50%, while Obama gains +1% to 48%. Virginia remains a Lean for Romney.

In Wisconsin, the third week of polls has Obama losing -1% each week from 51% to 49%. Romney gained back the +1% he lost last week, making the state a 49% tie. Wisconsin moves back into Toss-Up, and 10 Electoral votes are taken away from Obama.

Below is the latest round of state poll movements. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona: -2% (R +8%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Colorado: +3% (R +4%)
• Connecticut: No Poll (R -6%)
• Florida: -3% (R +2%)
• Georgia: Never Polled (R +5.2%) - 2008 result
• Iowa: +2% (R +0%)
• Michigan: No Poll (R -7%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +8%)
• Nevada: +1% (R -2%)
• New Hampshire: +3% (R +2%)
• North Carolina: +0% (R +6%)
• Ohio: +1% (R +0%)
• Pennsylvania: +0% (R -5%)
• Virginia: -1% (R +2%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +0%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 243								Romney - 261
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	6	Nevada	6	Iowa	4	New Hampshire	9	Colorado	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	16	Michigan			18	Ohio	13	Virginia	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			10	Wisconsin	29	Florida	15	North Carolina	11	Arizona
4	Hawaii											6	Arkansas
20	Illinois											4	Idaho
4	Maine											11	Indiana
10	Maryland											6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts											8	Kentucky
10	Minnesota											8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey											6	Mississippi
5	New Mexico											3	Montana
29	New York											5	Nebraska
7	Oregon											3	North Dakota
4	Rhode Island											7	Oklahoma
3	Vermont											10	Missouri
12	Washington											9	South Carolina
												3	South Dakota
												11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
194		43		6		34		46		40		175

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%
25-Aug-12	223	252.39	281	21.52%
01-Sep-12	223	252.39	281	22.08%
08-Sep-12	224	252.45	281	21.66%
15-Sep-12	221	249.88	278	17.54%
22-Sep-12	225	252.98	278	20.34%
29-Sep-12	225	252.04	277	19.04%
06-Oct-12	225	253.31	279	21.00%
13-Oct-12	233	258.74	283	27.69%
20-Oct-12	242	264.04	285	35.65%
27-Oct-12	238	265.95	291	44.18%

Link to Probability Chart

And over in the Senate...

The Republican GOP Senate campaign has made slight gains this week, taking back one seat. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate before the conventions.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 51-49 Democrat hold, with a probability of 19.2% for Republicans taking over. If I add the same Democrat bias correction as above, the Seneate becomes a 52-48 take-over for Republicans, with an 86% chance of occuring.

Since the last report, Rasmussen polled Arizona, Connecticut, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin Senate races.

In Arizona, both Republican Flake and Democrat Carmona gained +3%, keeping the race a +6% lead for Flake at 50%-44% and a hold for Republicans.

In Connecticut, the past two weeks shows a +1% gain for Republican McMahon and a -3% loss for Democrat Murphy, making the race now a 48%-47% lead for Murphy. Hopefully, the momentum is swinging in McMahon's direction.

In Minnesota, the first poll of the election shows Democrat Klobucher easily keeping her seat with a 56%-33% lead over Repulican Bills.

In Nevada, the third poll in a row shows Republican Heller holding onto his 50%, but Democrat Berkley gained back the +2% she lost two weeks ago. The race is now a 50%-45% Hold for Republicans.

In North Dakota, the first poll since mid-July has Republican Berg gaining +1% to 50%, but Democrat Heitkamp is closing with a +5% gain to 45%. The race is a pick-up for Republicans that they haven't given back.

In Ohio, a third week of polling has the Democrat Brown losing -1% and Republican Mandel unchanged. The race is now 48%-44% for Brown, and a Hold for Democrats.

In Virginia, a fourth week of polling has the race closing in. Over the month, Republican Allen gained +3% and Democrat Kaine lost -3%, making the race 49%-48% Hold for Kaine.

In Wisconsin, Republican Thompson gained +1% from two weeks ago, and Democrat Baldwin lost -5%. The race is now 48%-46% pick-up for Republicans, and a re-take of a lost gain in the race.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: +0% (R +6%)
• Connecticut 2: +4% (R -1%)
• Florida 2: No Poll (R -5%)
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +5%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R -2%)
• Missouri 2: No Poll (R -8%)
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Nevada 1: -2% (R +5%)
• North Dakota 1: -4% (R +5%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -4%)
• Rhode Island 2: Never Polled (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: Never Polled (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +0% (R -1%)
• Wisconsin 2: +6% (R +2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4
25-Aug-12	51	52.59	54	95.05%	5
01-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.53%	4
08-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.46%	4
15-Sep-12	50	51.19	53	73.42%	4
22-Sep-12	48	49.83	51	30.40%	2
29-Sep-12	47	48.79	50	9.26%	1
06-Oct-12	47	48.49	50	4.63%	1
13-Oct-12	47	48.74	50	8.42%	1
20-Oct-12	47	48.62	50	5.51%	1
27-Oct-12	48	49.37	51	19.18%	2

Link to Senate Probability Chart

[LS]

Romney’s pollster did a poll in which he also tested Mandell’s numbers (as he has for months). He has had Mandell at -4 for some time. Then, last week, Mandell shot into a 1-point lead. Just one more indicator that the national polls are very sluggish when it comes to OH.

[1010RD]

Agree completely. I don’t want to play too loose, but we know there’ll be treachery in our own ranks. Controlling the Senate gives us control over committees, but if Dems undermine us every step of the way they’ll run on they had control of everything, etc. You can see how this will go.

Come January you know they’ll have stories about hobos, women dying from back room abortions, children starving to death, etc.

[1010RD]

If they can take and hold and take and hold over the next 8 years perhaps your wish will come true, but given that Obama would be winning, but for this bad economy I’m not hopeful.

[1010RD]

What’s the history of GOP-controlled Senates with razor-thin majorities? Are they able to do whatever they want? Keep budgets down? When was the last GOP SCOTUS nominee dumped and why?

[1010RD]

That’s a supposition as well. The abortion coalition is in tatters and I don’t think they’ll be able to derail a nominee so easily anymore. There just isn’t an Iron Media Curtain and they haven’t won that many fights. Bork wasn’t a loss. Sure we got Kennedy, but that was the last big fight.

You’re not going to have a Ted Kennedy (D-Dead) state:

Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) took to the Senate floor with a strong condemnation of Bork in a nationally televised speech, declaring,

“Robert Bork’s America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could break down citizens’ doors in midnight raids, schoolchildren could not be taught about evolution, writers and artists could be censored at the whim of the Government, and the doors of the Federal courts would be shut on the fingers of millions of citizens.”

Those days are over. I think you could easily get a Scalia or Thomas through the process. Libs will fight hard and long, but they’re powder is wet. We’ve heard it all.

[Political Junkie Too]

Yeah. Who will be the first liberal commentator to say that they hope that Romney fails?

If there is one thing that Democrats excel at, it's the tit-for-tat retaliation.

-PJ

[1010RD]

Who would expect a liberal to be a petulant, immature, vengeful brat?

[Political Junkie Too]

Limbaugh said it because he didn't want to see America transformed into a socialist Europe. Liberals would say it back because Limbaugh said it first and it's their nature to retaliate.

That said, Limbaugh also said in 2004-2006 that Democrats had to count on America failing for them to do better. He accused Democrats and the MSM of "talking down the economy," and they were unwilling to acknowledge any success that Bush might have achieved.

Fast-forward to today, and we're back to a time when the economy is poor, unemployment is high with record numbers of people giving up, crushing tax increases around the corner as Obama's going-away present, health care in limbo, and the world on fire, and again the Democrats are going to be rooting for Romney to fail to turn things around.

This time, failure for Romney and America really is a Leftist win if America as we know it collapses.

-PJ

[Road Glide]

“It would be excellent to win the Senate, but politically dangerous. If we control it all and the economy isn’t moving 4 years hence the GOP will be hard pressed to hold on.”

Balderdash.

If Political Junkie Too’s predictions hold, and the ‘rats keep the Senate, expect NOTHING to get done for at least two years. They will obstruct EVERYTHING that Romney and the Republican House attempt to do.

The ‘rats know that the Senate will be their “last line of defense”, and will use whatever power they have there accordingly.

Expect to see political division in 2013 as you have never seen it before.

Others in this country have seen such divisions — in the 1850’s...

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[1010RD]

Really? How does the Senate work now? Not holding it or holding it at parity can be very powerful as well. If the GOP uses it correctly.

[dfergu7477]

Hi, PJT,

Would you include me on your ping list, as well, please?

Many thanks!

[MitchellC]

Boy I hope you’re right. I’ve been wondering if Mandel is hurt by how young he looks.

[Political Junkie Too]

How does the Senate work now?

Let's talk about that.

Do you think the businessman or Governor in Romney would stand for Harry Reid continuing to fail to pass a budget in the Senate? What "power" would Romney deploy to get the Senate to change?

First, Romney would try compromising with Democrats, but then he would realize that, to Democrats, compromise is really just a stalling tactic to delay Republicans from implementing their agenda while the MSM pounds on them day after day, week after week, until Republicans give it up, whatever "it" is. See Jay Rockefeller's famous "pull the trigger" memo for an example of "pulling Republicans along as far as we can" until they "have exhausted the opportunity to usefully collaborate with the majority."

Second, Romney would try peer pressure to try to pick off one or two Democrat Senators to vote with Republicans. Democrats are notorious for their solidarity, while Republicans are often weak and unreliable, undercutting each other when negotiating comes down to brinksmanship. Just witness how Mitch McConnell interfered at the last minute with House negotations over the debt limit increase to see what I'm talking about.

Third, Romney will need to take control as the head of the party and create a party discipline around messaging that doesn't exist today. Democrats also excel at messaging discipline across the House, Senate, and White House. Republicans never seem to have a coordinated plan in how they communicate on issues. There doesn't seem to be anybody who story-boards the GOP agenda so that the party leadership not only is consistently on-message, but that there is a strategy to the message that everybody understands.

Fourth, it's time for new leadership in the Senate and House. McConnell is to old and tired, too stuck in the past regarding "traditions" that his long-departed friends and foes demanded. It's a new time in politics, and we need new leaders who's first reactions aren't so predictable. We need bold leadership now, people who won't shrink from the MSM's portrayals of them. Or worse, won't shrink from their suppositions of what the MSM will say about them -- but haven't yet -- and then talk themselves out of action before they even get started.

The last one starts with the "freshman orientation" that is intended to indoctrinate new-comers into not rocking the boatload of old-timers. Let's stop disillusioning people as soon as they get to Washington. Let's give new people a chance on committees to show what they can do. Again, the likes of McConnell and Boehner need to be swept aside for this to happen. If that happens, we can see if they go the way of Richard Lugar and try to undermine those who replaced them, or will they behave higher than that, and mentor the new-comers from behind for the good of the party?

-PJ

[MitchellC]

Disagree with some of this list. Connie Mack has been a complete bomb, and even with these favorable conditions it will take a miracle for him to win. On the other hand Tom Smith and Linda McMahon are running ahead of Romney in their states, and if Romney wins the popular vote nationally by more than few percentage points, I think they’ll be swept in. Even Todd Akin has been polling better than Mack - so much for the predictions of a blowout there.

Kyrillos is a complete non-entity, and I’d rank him behind Summers, who could pull out an upset if the Dem candidate over-performs and Romney puts some focus on ME-2 in the closing days, and Lingle who at least is well known and liked. I’d like to see Ras or someone remotely respectable poll in ME and HI, because lately it’s been nothing but those untrustworthy newspaper polls there.

[Political Junkie Too]

I looked at RCP yesterday, and their compilation of local Hawaii polls shows them tracking close to Akaka's 2006 results.

-PJ

[MitchellC]

You make some great points here. On messaging, one problem Republicans have had that Democrats haven’t is that the politicians on our side are less likely to fully embrace the general philosophy. I’m convinced that literally ALL of the Democrats are true believers in hardcore socialism, and that they will ALWAYS get away with every tiny bit as much as they think their constituents will put up with. There are no ‘blue dogs,’ there are only socialists smart enough to know which votes for socialist policy are permissible in the eyes of their state/district, as well as with an eye towards future higher office.

But on our side, we often have to fight members of our caucus, even those who are representing conservative states/districts. Imagine trying to do the kind of messaging you’re talking about, in the past decade, with some of the Republicans we’ve had in the Senate, for example. Could we have really trusted Lincoln Chafee, Chuck Hagel, John McCain, Greg Voinovich, Lisa Murkowski, Lindsay Graham, Bob Bennet etc. to carry out conservative messaging?

Could you imagine Dems representing Dem states breaking their messaging? Never in a million years.

[randita]

Mack vs. Nelson polls have swung wildly so it’s really hard to know what’s going on there. If Romney does well in FL, he may carry Mack to a victory. I do agree that Mack has been a total bomb, but he may end up being a lucky bomb.

Lingle is doing okay - single digits as of the last poll. I think she will probably lose, but it won’t be a rout.

ME hasn’t been polled lately, but the last poll had King comfortably ahead with Dill in the single digits - not peeling off near enough support from King to help Summers, who is a good candidate.

Menendez is not popular and has ethics problems, but Oct. polls have him well ahead.

I dropped a few long shots off the list before this update and will drop NJ in the next one.

Mourdock may slip some. A couple of weeks ago Ras had him +5.

There are quite a few which could go either way clumped in the middle of this list. Romney’s performance may send some in the GOP direction, but nothing’s a sure bet. It will go down to the wire regarding the U.S. Senate, IMO.

[justiceseeker93]

I'd start off giving Romney 180 EVs from the states that McCain won in '08. There is absolutely no evidence that Obama can win any of them at all.

So Romney needs 90 EVs from states that Obama won in '08 to reach the magic 270. It's conventional wisdom now that he wins Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Indiana (11). That totals 68, so he needs 22 more from the list of states still in doubt. With toss-up Ohio (18), he needs only four more which he could get with little New New Hampshire (4) or any other toss-up state. But even without Ohio, there are several possible combinations of three or four states that add up to the 22 he needs. Since he has a fairly decent shot in Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Nevada and there is a possibility he could even get a surprise win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon or Minnesota, I'd say that the odds of a Romney electoral college win nationally are better than the 44.18% that you indicate.

Dick Morris is thinking pretty much along the same lines, even more bullish on Romney's chances.

BTW, it is statistically very highly unlikely that a three-point leader in the national popular vote (which R0omney has now pretty much maintained for a week in Rasmussen and even Gallup) can lose the electoral college.

[Political Junkie Too]

Perhaps you're right. My analysis is not based on my suppositions of the lay of the land, it's only based on the polls that Rasmussen has published.

So far, based on Rasmussen polls to-date, Romney's probability of getting 270 Electoral votes or more is 44%.

I may post a mid-week report this week if things change drastically before Saturday.

-PJ