Disagree with some of this list. Connie Mack has been a complete bomb, and even with these favorable conditions it will take a miracle for him to win. On the other hand Tom Smith and Linda McMahon are running ahead of Romney in their states, and if Romney wins the popular vote nationally by more than few percentage points, I think they’ll be swept in. Even Todd Akin has been polling better than Mack - so much for the predictions of a blowout there.
Kyrillos is a complete non-entity, and I’d rank him behind Summers, who could pull out an upset if the Dem candidate over-performs and Romney puts some focus on ME-2 in the closing days, and Lingle who at least is well known and liked. I’d like to see Ras or someone remotely respectable poll in ME and HI, because lately it’s been nothing but those untrustworthy newspaper polls there.
-PJ
Mack vs. Nelson polls have swung wildly so it’s really hard to know what’s going on there. If Romney does well in FL, he may carry Mack to a victory. I do agree that Mack has been a total bomb, but he may end up being a lucky bomb.
Lingle is doing okay - single digits as of the last poll. I think she will probably lose, but it won’t be a rout.
ME hasn’t been polled lately, but the last poll had King comfortably ahead with Dill in the single digits - not peeling off near enough support from King to help Summers, who is a good candidate.
Menendez is not popular and has ethics problems, but Oct. polls have him well ahead.
I dropped a few long shots off the list before this update and will drop NJ in the next one.
Mourdock may slip some. A couple of weeks ago Ras had him +5.
There are quite a few which could go either way clumped in the middle of this list. Romney’s performance may send some in the GOP direction, but nothing’s a sure bet. It will go down to the wire regarding the U.S. Senate, IMO.