Posted on 10/25/2012 8:41:11 AM PDT by dirtboy
11 AM NHC 5-day forecast:
Models are still all over the place after three days, this is an average of the tracks. But nonetheless, the hybrid storm that may happen could have tropical storm-force winds extending out hundreds of miles, creating a massive fetch for storm surge and widespread power outages for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Wind shear is expected to rise to 40 - 55 knots by Friday, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should disrupt Sandy's inner core and reduce the maximum winds. However, the trough will also inject energy into Sandy, and the hurricane's winds will spread out over a wider area of ocean, keeping the storm surge threat high. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 5 - 8 feet in the Bahamas. Sandy will make its closest pass by Nassau around 8 am EDT Friday.
The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in substantial agreement for the next 3 days, but Sandy's future is as clear as mud after that. Sandy will continue to punish the Bahamas today and Friday, as it tracks north to north-northwest. Sandy will probably come close enough to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday afternoon to spread heavy rains to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. However, the 4 - 6 day computer model forecasts for Sunday - Tuesday diverge widely. The GFS model, which has been one of our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks the past two years, has been very inconsistent with its handling of Sandy. Runs of the GFS model done 6 hours apart, at 8 pm last night and 2 am EDT this morning, were 300 miles apart in their position for Sandy on Tuesday, with the latest run predicting a landfall in Maine on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, the ECMWF model, our other top model for predicting hurricane tracks, has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy. The ECMWF model has Sandy hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon, the same forecast it has had for three consecutive runs. The other models tend to follow one extreme or the other, and NHC is picking a solution somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT Thursday all across the U.S., which should help this evening's model runs. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.
The Northeast U.S. scenario
If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.
The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario
Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.
ping
Can we hold it off for exactly one week?
Can’t it make that exact hit on Nov.6?
Will Obama cancel the election due to power outages?
I WILL fire up the generator before the lights go out this time. Cleaning grey slime out of the carb from the Ethanol in the dark is no fun. Hopefully that Stabil stuff works.
From coastal Virginia north into Maine and the maritime provinces...
Heads up!
The breadth & inland effect of this transitional storm will be so large that evacuation might be futile...
....so many people.... no where to run.
....Just sayin' it's a long way from Boston to Ohio...
Pay attention...
Be ready....
All that wind will make it difficult for the SS to light the kenyans cigarettes.
Heads-up Ping!
This is series. We may need to postpone the election.
Good idea. I just had a pilot jet clog up with four-month old non-ethanol tested gasoline with Stabil in it! Anything can happen. Test your equipment as often as you can.
After the ice storm of 2008 we won’t lose power or the chance is very low (I’m in central MA).
The electric company came through and took out all the bad trees all through town. The last hurricane we didn’t lose power at all, not even once. Same thing with the snow storm last October. I’ll have my generator ready to go but I’m not worried.
The only thing I am worried about is being on the east side of the storm.
I saw on Accuweather that the for me in Western Pa , maybe a Halloween snowstorm. Sandy going up through NE and the Canadian Maritimes, retrograding back in Western NY and then blowing up agian as an extra tropical system. We had snow last year before Halloween which was not a precursor for our below average Winter. Something to keep and eye on.
I see all these conspiracy theories on FR about Obama canceling the elections, Kevin Dejaun at HillBuzz has to deal with this Black Helicopter stuff all the time, any FR nutjobs want to point out an executive order, law, statute or precedent for a President canceling elections? There is none, so lets quit with all the conspiracy nonsense, you give credense to our political enemies as us being paranoid hick morons.
I do hope not...because I know power outtages are the main issue in the northeast..and flooding
but given how media is concentrated there...any storm hints hitting from DC to Boston and it’s the mother of all storms
and they never are
biggest storms hit the Gulf from Houston to Panama City and concentrated from Grand Isle to Pensacola truly
or pass over the Keys or Miami and wreak hell first
of the 10 worst hurricanes past 100 years only two have hit east coast above Miami...Hugo and Donna...Donna being the last one to really kill in the northeast...1960
there has been only one storm since 1900 hit the northeast that could be considered Katrina or Galveston or Camille or Andrew like...the 1938 storm which hit hard dead on in true New England killing 800 and over a billion in today’s money...a September storm...and it was the first significant storm then in almost 100 years for that area
i hope I am correct...major storms period are difficult to make serious landfall anywhere US this late...too much high pressure coming off the land mass even if there is still fairly warm water...I mean...I think it is snowing in Denver right now
And there also could be a lot of inland flooding with the cold front as a triggering mechanism once the tropical moisture runs into it.
ping
Most models now have it hitting land in the mid-atlantic region. This could be very bad for DC and NYC,running the gambit of tropical storm winds, with heavy rains and snow along with a full moon. Yes Janice Dean the Weather Machine on FNC was having a cow about this today. As for elections, if people in major populace areas are without power for a week or more, which isnt out of the realm of possibility, then who knows what they will do on Election day.
The current NOAA track has this thing sailing right up the Narrows into NY Bay. If that happens the storm surge into Lower Manhattan could make saltwater taffy out of the subway system with repairs taking months.
“I WILL fire up the generator before the lights go out this time.”
After being out of power for 2 weeks because of the 2008 storm I bought a portable generator. Walking around the neighborhood it seems alot of people are installing whole house automatic generator systems. I counted 8 of them in about 12 blocks. Nice but pricey. I would get one but since I lose power maybe twice a year for several hours I cant justify it.
Agreed with the black helicopter stuff. Yet, if the storm's impact is severe, I can envision the 0ne gaining an electoral advantage by acting compassionate and Presidential, a rally around the flag effect.
The main thing now is for those in the potential storm path to be alert and to prepare while all lift prayers to heaven for everyone's safety.
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