Posted on 10/22/2012 10:03:33 AM PDT by tatown
Romney-51/Obama-45
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
On Oct 22, 2008, Obama was up 50-46.
Incumbents lose 3 points over the final 3 weeks on Gallup, with most of that coming off the final week. Carter in 1980, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 1992, and Bush in 2004 all lost 3 points in Gallup polling over the final weeks.
If that happens in 2012, Obama will be pushed down to 42% of the vote by election day.
Is this the same as yesterday?
Yesterday 52-45.
Obama 53 and McCain 46 was the final result.
Interesting to note that the final Gallup poll had 7% of the electorate undecided and almost all of them ended up voting the McCain/Palin ticket. Most likely we had the "white guilt" factor in play where many voters didn't want to admit to favoring the white guy over the black guy.
So chances are, we have the same dynamic in place this year which could potentially yield a 55-45% Romney victory when all is said and done. Don't see Obama getting much more than the 45% he already has and might even lose a point or two after tonight's debate if Obama's performance is weak.
“We have never weighted polls by party affiliation” - Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of Gallup.
Party affiliation follows the way a person is currently inclined to vote and party affiliation doesn’t drive how someone votes.
“We only ask the person after we have polled them who they currently self-identify with at the end of the poll for informational purposes.”
See here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2948176/posts?page=1
Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others.
O is feeling the pressure! I’m sure he knows nothing he does tonight will change things. The only question left to be asked is whether he can accept defeat with dignity and good grace. O has never tasted adversity. Let’s see how he handles it.
7 full days post 2nd debate. LOL.
Well let the past results speak for themselves. Gallup has been in the presidential polling business since 1936 and the only time they screwed up was the Dewey/Truman race in 1948. I think that's a pretty good track record.
Romney cratering! obama surging! (right?)
I listened to a Gallup talking head on some Fox show yesterday, and he said they don’t use party ID weighting at all at Gallup. He said they considered it to be an attitude (hope I’m using the right word), and that it fluctuates with the candidate the person is supporting.
As I understand the logic from those who use party ID weighting, they believe that party affiliation is a long term position held by a person that does not fluctuate in terms of their answering which party they ID themselves with. Those that use party id, like Rasmussen, then adjust it based on other elements of a secret sauce formula that they apply.
The guy from Gallup made a compelling case. I think Rasmussen’s numbers have been closest for a number of election cycles now, so I wouldn’t discount his secret sauce just yet.
They both have Romney up, but Gallup by about 6 and Ras by about 2.
Check their record for the last 60 years or so. Their final polls have been pretty close in nearly every election. They had 49-48 for Ford in 1976 which went 50.1-48.1 for Carter. That's the worst they've been. They've rarely overestimated the GOP candidate.
If Romney wins would that be a mandate to gut big government?
Based on past polling tracking history, tonight is not going to change the momentum of the race - once you give away your lead, its impossible to get it back.
And with Obama stuck at 45% - he has a lot of people to persuade him to give him another chance. Not likely since he’s a known quantity.
This election is all about the economy, stupid.
Obama stuck at 45% for six straight days - seems pretty definitive.....
The problem with some of these +9% Democrat polls may not be from their failure to weight by party, but their sampling techniques. The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.
OMG, that's funny. Thanks for the new meme.
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