Ohio Is Closer than You Think (Superb analysis!)

National Review Online ^ | 10/20/12 | Josh Jordan

[TonyInOhio]

Just a few weeks ago, Ohio was a state that was considered almost every media outlet to be a solid lock for Obama. There’s no need to rehash the actual headlines, but some even suggested Romney give up on Ohio and look elsewhere for a path to victory. Before the first debate, Romney was down 5.6 in RCP’s Buckeye State average. Today he is down 2.5, cutting his deficit by more than half, presumably in large part due to his strong first-debate performance. Here are a few reasons why it’s even closer than that:

Democratic turnout advantage from 2008 probably wasn’t as big as you think: Last cycle was a wave election and Barack Obama took Ohio by 4.6 percent, 51.5 to 46.9. The exit polls showed a split of 39 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans, and 30 percent independents. If that had been the actual turnout, according to exit polls’ measurement of how members of each party said they voted, Obama would have won 52.8 to 45.6, for a 7.2 percent margin victory, substantially bigger than the margin by which he actually won. This means that the exit polls were off a little, which is unsurprising since they are, after all, just polls.

But we have actual vote totals to compare these polls to. If you use the exit-poll numbers for reported voting by party and then look at what kind of a turnout by party you’d need to get to the actual state vote tally, you come out with this breakdown: 37.5 percent Democrats, 32.5 percent Republicans, and 30 percent Independents (that gives you a vote of 51.6 percent for Obama and 46.9 percent for McCain — pretty close to actual results). So while the 2008 exit polls show an eight-point Democrat advantage, in reality it was likely closer to five percent. That is a big difference when analyzing current polls.

Romney is up big with independents: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8 percent among independents in Ohio. Of the seven current RCP polls that give independent numbers, Romney is up by an average of 8.7 percent:

That’s a 16 percent swing in independents toward Romney from 2008′s numbers. If you assume equal turnout in 2012 as 2008 (using my number from above) but take Obama’s 8 percent edge with independents and give it Romney, that 4.6 percent 2008 margin becomes a tie. At that point, Romney would win if he chips away at the five-percent turnout advantage from 2008.

The current poll samples have Democratic turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels: Of the seven current RCP polls in Ohio, the average Democratic advantage in party ID is 5.5 percent. That is, if we assume 2008 advantage was D+5, as explained above, then the average poll in Ohio right now assumes a 2008-level turnout. While anything is possible on November 6, there are not many people on either side thinking Obama can match his 2008 turnout advantage.

Early voting is not as positive for Obama as it was in 2008: This is the last point, but a huge one. Take this quotation, from CNN today: “Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22 percent. Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29 percent.” The current polls have been seriously inflated for Democrats because they’re reporting Obama with 30+ percent leads in early voting (which is then automatically counted in “likely voter” samples), which seems to be vastly overestimating the Democratic advantage among these voters. As CNN explains, Romney is making huge gains from 2008.

Obama won in 2008 largely because of a healthy lead among independents and a highly enthusiastic base’s turning out votes. Right now Romney is leading big with independents, has a more enthusiastic base, and is drawing crowds in Ohio that rival Obama’s. While he is down 2.5 points in the polls, the average poll is assuming 2008 turnout which is unlikely to repeat itself this year. Adding the fact that early voting is trending more Republican than in 2008, there is a lot of reason for optimism that this race is much closer than the current polls suggest. Not bad for a candidate who was declared dead in the state just a few weeks ago.

[Perdogg]

This is what I posted last week about Ohio

2008

National: Obama 52.87 McCain 45.60
Ohio: Obama 51.38 McCain 46.80

2004

National: Bush 50.73 Kerry 48.27
Ohio: Bush 50.81 Kerry 48.71

2000

National: Bush 47.87 Gore 48.27 Nader 2.73
Ohio: Bush 49.97 Gore 48.71 Nader 2.5

1996

National: Clinton 49.23 Dole 40.72 Perot 8.4
Ohio: Clinton 47.38 Dole 41.02 Perot 10.66

1992

National: Clinton 43.01 Bush 37.45 Perot 18.91
Ohio: Clinton 40.18 Bush 38.35 Perot 20.98

1988

National: Bush 53.37 Dukakis 45.65
Ohio: Bush 55.00 Dukakis 44.15

1984

National: Reagan 58.77 Mondale 40.56
Ohio: Reagan 58.90 Mondale 40.14

1980

National: Reagan 50.75 Carter 41..01 Anderson 6.61
Ohio: Reagan 51.51 Carter 40.99 Anderson 5.94

1976

National: Carter 50.08 Ford 48.02
Ohio: Carter 48.92 Ford 48.65

1972

National: Nixon 60.67 McGovern 37.52
Ohio: Nixon 59.63 McGovern 38.07

[AuH2ORepublican]

You could have kept going back through 1876 and found similar results. : )

I think Romney currently is up by 3% in OH and by 4% nationally.

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

I too live in Ohio...in the Akron, Canton, Massillon triangle. For what it is worth, I have had many phone calls backing Republican candidates and Republican issues. I have had no similar Democrat calls until last night announcing a Biden visit to the area this week.

The Obama TV ads here are all regurgated whine from his debate lies. I do not think people are buying that.

I have talked with many people, both Pubbies and Dims, and the consensous seems to be much stronger support for Romney than for Obama.

For what it’s worth, I think Ohio is not going to be in the Obama camp on Nov 6, and I also think that Romney’s margin in other ‘toss-up’ states will make any challenge ala Florida 2000 moot. Nothing short of an EO on Nov 7 declaring martial law and voiding the election could help him...but that would get him canned before Jan 20.

[Mr. Silverback]

Hopefully you’ll be able to quote Randy again on January 20: “All right, Mr. President, here we go!”

[CPT Clay]

Romney wins Ohio 51-47. You heard it here. #There’sThat47PercentAgain

[TomEwall]

Another point is in 2008 I’d be surprised if more Republicans didn’t vote for Obama then Democrats voted for McCain. This would cut the edge down even further, meaning that there was less than a 5% edge for Democrats.