Posted on 10/18/2012 8:13:11 AM PDT by GonzoII
“I hear Pittsburgh is very nice this time of year.”
-- A senior Romney campaign staffer talking to Power Play about the strategy for the closing weeks of the campaign.
Two weeks ago, Mitt Romney trailed in five Rust Belt battleground states by an average of 6.9 points in the Real Clear Politics Average of polls. This morning, his average deficit was just 3.2 points.
While all 11 swing states have moved his direction since the Republican nominee’s boffo performance in his first debate with President Obama, Romney has seen the most significant improvement in the core column of the swing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Power Play readers have long known that the 2012 election would come down to the nation’s industrial heartland. Yes, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina are crucial for Romney. And certainly the president needs to hold on to his Western firewall in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
But this election, like most in recent memory, was always going to be about how those folks in the I-70 corridor and surrounding areas would vote. With 70 electoral votes up for grabs – votes that Obama swept in 2008 – the battleground stretching between Allentown, Pa. and Sioux City, Iowa has been the main front in this political war.
This has been increasingly Democratic territory for 20 years. In five elections, only Ohio and Iowa have voted Republican at all. In 25 contests in that time, the GOP has triumphed just thrice, Ohio in 2000 and 2004 and Iowa in 2004.
Long ago, this was the Republican Party’s stronghold. But as the economy declined over the last 40 years and the nation’s economic engine shifted to the South, the Red Team has found a less receptive audience in the Rust Belt for a message of....
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
“That B.S. about how “the Democrats are the Party of the WORKIN’ MAN!” has been drilled very deep into people’s skulls around here for generations. It’s gonna take a major concerted effort to blow that apart.”
The beltway GOP is too collegial. While Reid & Pelosi curb stomp them they refuse to fight back. If we fight like dims we will win. The facts are on our side, the “rich” vote Democrat! The GOP is the party of the tax paying middle class. So tell it like it is.
York is turning into a bedroom community for Baltimore.
The sudden influx of Peoples Republic of Marylanders has certainly not helped the situation either.
It was Philadelphia County where Obama picked up a 480,000 vote cushion. He won PA by about 600,000 votes. Voter fraud in Philly is the real margin of victory along with Alleghany County (Pittsburg), which Obama won by 100,000 votes.
I live in SW PA (Pittsburgh). I travel 22 miles each way to work, half of that trip through several neighborhoods, the rest on the parkway (highway). I have seen dozens of Romney signs in yards, signs along the road, even at businesses. I have seen two Obama signs. two.
In 2008, Obama bumperstickers were everywhere. I see the occassional 2008 sticker but have seen only 3 2012 stickers for Obama. I’ve seen more Romney bumperstickers.
This is in the eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh. One of the areas I drive through in my commute is a blue collar, dem controlled area with a large black population. No Obama signs, but a few Romney. Its pretty surreal... In my borough, I’ve seen dozens of Romney signs, even 3’x5’ signs in yards... the only signs I’ve seen with Obama’s name are the Stop the War on Coal, Fire Obama signs.
I travel to Washington and Greene County alot as well. Romney stickers and signs but no Obama... I was in Brookville, Jefferson County last week. Romney signs and bumper stickers EVERYWHERE! No Obama. I am hopeful.
Pittsburgh isn’t the issue with PA, never was... Philly is what drags PA Dem.. that region alone moves the state 5-8 points democratic. Harrisburg and Pitt are non starters.
If Philly was not part of PA, PA and OH would be nearly identical politically in terms of how the states would go.
Ohio doesn’t have to overcome a Philly (with well over 10% of the entire states population in the city proper) dragging it left.. So if Obama is only pollin up a few points in PA... he’s got no chance in Ohio.
AS to winning PA, you don’t have to win Pittsburgh to win PA.. you just have to come out of Philly without getting completely overwhelmed. You pull that off, as a republican and you can win. I firmly believe PA is winnable for Romney if he fights for it. If Obama has a lead here at all its just by the slimmest of margins, a few percentage points at best.
There are a lot of misconceptions about PA by people who don’t live here.. they just see the voter registration deltas and buy into things that just aren’t true.
PHILLY is what drags PA left, easily costing 5-8 points in any election cycle typically that the rest of the state must counter. If Philly was not part of PA, this state would be damn near close to as RED as any souther state is these days in national elections.
2008 State was overwhelmed out of Philly and disgust with Bush/Bush Fatgue.. whatever you want to call it repressed Republican turnout overall here.
I feel in all the conversations and things I’ve done this cycle here, Obamas lead here is maybe a few points at best, and that if Romney decided to fight, get on the airwaves and FIGHT for PA he could win it. Way things stand now I’d say Obama holds it buy by just a few points.
If Romney starts advertising and visiting that could change.
However, if Romney wins PA without even fighting for it, that means you aren’t just looking at a win you are looking at a route. If that should happen, states absolutely no one is even talking about being in play will move to Romney’s column.
However as I said, right now, I’d say Obama holds the state but only by a few points since Romney isn’t fighting for it.
There are 43,000 people in York. It’s not something that can overwhelm the rest of the state, like Philly does.
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