NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Climbed Back To 66%

Business Insider ^ | 10/18/2012 | Henry Blodget

[SeekAndFind]

Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking:

• Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecast
• Intrade's prediction market
• Betfair's prediction market

First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at.

Nate Silver, New York Times

 

On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high 50s.

Intrade

 

[FlingWingFlyer]

Why? What happened? Somebody is FOS.

[AHerald]

Crack.Pipe.

[John W]

Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest.

[ScottinVA]

Turnout on our side is what gives us the chance to prove them wrong. Those who love America have no cause for sitting this election out. It’s all on the table this time around.

[Sacajaweau]

bs

[ilgipper]

PPP showed no change after the debate. Ressumussen showed a point increase for Romney with one day of polling.

This charade is just like the weeks after the DNC. The media is just manufacturing news to try to convince people it is true. There are zero facts to back this up. None.

[Clump]

So what?
I truly don’t think this means jack.
All signs point to the incumbent being toast.

[libdestroyer]

Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%

[vetvetdoug]

I guess there was an optimist on the deck of the Titanic also.

[American Constitutionalist]

Desperate projection.

[LibFreeUSA]

"Nate Silver of the New York Times"

Surprise!!!

[FlingWingFlyer]

Or maybe it was that “binders” thing. LOL! Liberals are nuts.

[LibLieSlayer]

1) intrade is a foreign betting site and banned in America

2) They had the overturning of obamacare at 78% so they have no credibility in this election

3) george soros is investing in intrade to skewer these numbers... just like the economic and jobs numbers are being skewered.

[rovenstinez]

Someone is going to be real humbled, and others are going to have a good laugh. Someone is right, and someone is wrong. This is great.

[andy58-in-nh]

These are gambling odds designed to attract maximum action on both sides of the bet. They have little to do with electoral dynamics.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

Keep believing it is true in the face of all evidence against it. And when it turns out not to be true, you’ve set the stage for the Dem base to claim Romney stole the election and to riot. Welcome to the presidency, Mr. Romney! Your first act will be to call out the military to put down riots by Libs who believe this BS.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%

Lots of people lost money there.

I believe Intrade also swang to John Kerry on the early part of the 2004 election eve when exit polls showed Kerry getting most of the votes.

It then swung wildy back to Bush late that night.

[hadaclueonce]

Nate Silver. Who in the h3ll is this wacko? Bubba Bob Jones of Waco Texas says just the opposite.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Trying to protect the undercard now. Dems in places like Va and Fla can't afford for their side to say WTHeck and stay home.