Posted on 10/12/2012 8:21:37 AM PDT by nhwingut
Click on each state for survey details. Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Keep on smiling, Joe!
Florida - The party ID in the survey was D +3 (Dem 40, Rep 37, Independent 23). In 2008 it was also D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).
What a calming affect it has now that we can take off our tinfoil hats and start believing in all the polls. I, for one, am sleeping better.
Could it be that the pollsters have decided they were backing a lost cause and are now moving to protect their reputations. Methinks so.
Yes - bit by bit they’re changing the party affiliation breakdown to result in publicly reasonable numbers. Hence they’re getting closer to reality.
The polls have always said the same thing when you account for party affiliation breakdown. Math is a wonderful thing.
I think Suffolk is right - Florida will go to Romney fairly easily. I also think that Virginia will go to Romney by about 3-5%.
The big wild card here is Ohio. We need to lock down that state.
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Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 87% to 9% among self-described Democrats (39% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (33% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 52% to 42% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
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This is from the poll of October 9th. The results of this poll were Romney leading 48-47 with a D+6 sample!
With regard to the NH poll:
Obama won NH 54-45. According to the poll you posted, Romney's beating him there by a lot. That's stunning.
So the correct meme is: ARG shows GOP losing, ARG is trash. ARG shows GOP winning, ARG is great. I submit that from past history, ARG is pretty much trash all the time.
Whats TN look like ???
Early voting starts Wednesday...
Their electoral vote calculator is a nice tool, though. I was able to determine that my previous prediction of a 360-178 Romney victory doesn't work very well. I have revised it to 358-180.
I could only come up with 352 for Romney - where are you getting the other 8?
My personal worst case prediction was 306 for Romney (6 weeks ago). I hope we are all right.
Even Long John Nate Silver is starting to back up in preparation to say “wow, the race really is shifting!” Most of these pollsters are real lowlifes.
I know that Romney is now ahead in FL and pretty much will sweep the south. Now that being said, is there a real possibility that he could win NH?
Additional 6 you mean? How about Iowa?
Atonement for Souter, one could say.
Man...if we can get NH it makes it awfully close and gives us a few routes to 270 w/o OH. We would then need IA. Lets just hope we just win OH. I am just hoping that all the undecideds break for Mitt which usually happens.
NH has alot of independents, which might explain Mitts lead. But I am still suspect.
Drudge has a link on his home page saying that 0bama has only CA, DE, DC, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, and VT locked up.
The party ID in the survey was R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Independent 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44).
Atonement for Souter, one could say.
Good thought.
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