Romney, Allen Take The Lead In VA

Virginia Virtucon ^ | 10/11/12 | Riley

[ReagansRaiders]

Pollster John McLaughlin (not to be confused with the pundit) conducted a statewide poll of Virginia for George Allen's senate campaign this Mon. and Tue., surveying 600 likely voters.  Unlike media and university polls, McLaughlin works for clients and no candidate wants to hire someone who isn't accurate.  John is an ace pollster who I worked closely with for Steve Forbes in 1996, so I know that if he is going public with these numbers he is extremely confident in their accuracy as his entire reputation depends upon it. With that preface, drumroll please...

Romney 51% - Obama 44% - Goode 1%

Allen 49% - Kaine 46%

Complete crosstabs can be found here.

[calicard]

Amen!

[Hawthorn]

>> It will be close regardless of such anecdotal information. The Dems in NoVA are organized and motivated—and they are numerous. A split here would guarantee a victory for Romney. A split is the best case scenario. <<

Yea, for sure, anecdotes can be unreliable. On the other hand, collect enough anecdotes and you’ve got data!

So here are four anecdotal factoids I’ll contribute to the mix:

1. My neighborhood in Arlington was full of Øbama yard signs in 2008. Only three or four this year. Distinct lack of enthusiasm for Dhimmis among the civil servants who dominate the inner suburbs. The Dhimmis will still carry Arlington and Alexandria, of course, but their margin can’t possibly match their 2008 performance.

2. Motored down US 29 from NOVA to Charlottesville a few weeks ago, and saw dozens and dozens of GOP yard signs — mostly the super-giant size. Only three or four small signs for President Zero until well within the city limits of Ch’ville. Moreover, I saw not a single Goode sign in his “home” territory. Obviously, the Piedmont is roaring to go for the GOP!

3. Was in Falls Church City a few days ago and noticed maybe a dozen Øbama yard signs, only one for RR. Crazyman Nick Benton and his followers clearly will deliver “the Little City” to the Dhimmis by a comfortable margin.

4. Drove yesterday thru Fairfax County from the Arlington line to Tyson’s Corner. Counted 13 RR yard signs, only five for the big Ø. Doesn’t seem quite as good for the GOP as during the 2009 governor’s race, when I saw zero yard signs for the Dhimmis on the same route, but still indicates a better-than-2008 performance for the GOP in the outer suburbs.

Conclusion:

RR can probably hold TØTUS and Company to a near-tie in NOVA, while generating a huge margin in the Piedmont. If GOP enthusiasm in the Valley, Southside and Coal Country is anything like what I saw in the Piedmont, RR should be able to take the Commonwealth by at least two or three points.

[kabar]

I live in McLean, not far from Tysons. Yes, Obama signs are down in number, but I don't see a lot of Romney signs or bumper stickers either. I have my Mitt bumper sticker, but I don't see a lot of them in the supermarket parking lots or at the Mall. It is all very low key and eerie. Hard to believe there is an election in four weeks.

I will be poll watching during early voting and will get a better handle on turnout. We have been pushing early voting in person to lock up our base. Huge effort underway dwarfing what went on in 2008. Our folks are more motivated and energized than I have ever seen them. We will need it to overcome the obvious Dem advantages. The three biggest employers in Fairfax County are the schools, the county government and the federal government. And 30% of the population is foreign born.

[Hawthorn]

>> The three biggest employers in Fairfax County are the schools, the county government and the federal government. And 30% of the population is foreign born <<

Yep, and still, McDonnell carried the County in 2009. So the situation obviously isn’t w/o hope for the GOP.

Maybe one pro-GOP factor is that economically successful foreign-born citizens (of whom there seem to be a lot in FFX) lean toward the GOP — at least, when there are no maccaca-type comments from the GOP side (Allen), and when there is no Asian wife on the Dhimmi side (Webb).

[kabar]

Yep, and still, McDonnell carried the County in 2009. So the situation obviously isn’t w/o hope for the GOP.

McDonnelll won Fairfax County by about 4,500 votes--138,655 to 134,189 (50.7% to 49.1%). There were about 273,000 votes cast.

In 2008 Obama took Fairfax County 310,000 to 201,000 (60% to 39%). There were over 500,000 votes cast or almost twice the number of the 2009 off year election of McDonnell.

In 2004, John Kerry won Fairfax County 246,000 to 212,000, the first time a Dem did that in a Presidential election in 40 years. The changing demographics of Fairfax are making it more and more Dem. It is reflected at every level of government.

You can not compare 2009 to 2012. The turnout will be much greater. If we can just break anywhere near to even, Romney will win the state. I seriously doubt that Romney will win Fairfax County. Ain't going to happen..

Maybe one pro-GOP factor is that economically successful foreign-born citizens (of whom there seem to be a lot in FFX) lean toward the GOP — at least, when there are no maccaca-type comments from the GOP side (Allen), and when there is no Asian wife on the Dhimmi side (Webb).

Not so. The vast majority of immigrants are minorities as defined by the USG. The white population of the county has declined from 81.3% in 1990 to 62.7% in 2010. Blacks have increased from 7.7% in 1990 to 9.2%; asians from 8.5% to 17.6%; multiracial from 2.3% to 10.2%, and Hispanics from 6.3% to 15.6%. The population of the county has increased by about 270,000 since 1990, most of it due to immigration.

The number of ESOL students has increased by over a third in the past year. There are over 31,000 ESOL students out of a student population of 181,000. 50% of the students speak a language other than English at home.

Minorities and immigrants vote 2 to 1 Democrat. It is a myth and a delusion that they will vote Rep. Fairfax and NoVA will continue to trend Dem. Demography is destiny.

[Hawthorn]

>> Minorities and immigrants vote 2 to 1 Democrat <<

Minorities? For sure, if you're talking mainly about blacks and Hispanics.

But all immigrants? What about those non-black, non-Hispanic immigrants like the very prosperous Koreans and Chinese and Hindus that I see driving Mercedes and BMW's all around FFX? I don't claim to have poll numbers on how they will vote. What hard data do you have?

[kabar]

Immigration, Political Realignment, and the Demise of Republican Political Prospects

If you want to see how immigration impacts electoral politics, look no further than CA, which has the demographic profile today that the US will have in 2050. We are well on our way to the Dems being the permanent majority.

Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

[Hawthorn]

>> If you want to see how immigration impacts electoral politics, look no further than CA, which has the demographic profile today that the US will have in 2050. We are well on our way to the Dems being the permanent majority <<

Sure, if you’re ready to give up altogether. But when I see the success a Bobby Jindal or a Nikki Haley can have in Deep South states, I’m definitely not going to give up on the Asian vote.

And when I see how the western states can elect politicians like Sandoval, Martinez and Labrador, I can’t conclude that the Hispanic vote is a lost cost for the GOP.

So let’s agree amicably to disagree. You stay pessimistic, and I’ll be happily optimistic!

[Hawthorn]

>> Goode’s not taking as big a bite as many thought he would <<

Yes, and not only that:

According to the cross-tabs for this poll, he’s drawing his support almost entirely from Dhimmis and independents, almost no votes from the GOP. That finding must be quite a shock to the Virgil-boosters here on FR!

[Hawthorn]

>> as reality closes in, the Goode 5% has shrunk <<

Moreover, notice this:

The cross-tabs from McLaughlin say Goode draws one percent of the Dems, one percent of the indies and zero percent of the GOPers!

[xzins]

>> as reality closes in, the Goode 5% has shrunk << Moreover, notice this: The cross-tabs from McLaughlin say Goode draws one percent of the Dems, one percent of the indies and zero percent of the GOPers!

Yes, I was hoping that someone (the Constitution Party) was serious about trying to build a conservative party.

They have not made the effort as near as I can tell.

They would have done far, far better -- if their intention were party-building -- to run Goode for his old congressional seat in Virginia. He would have been a real contender, and they might have ended up at last with a representative actually at the national level.

I'm disillusioned with them.

[kabar]

So let’s agree amicably to disagree. You stay pessimistic, and I’ll be happily optimistic

OK, but I will just say that I am realistic while you are delusional. Unless we change our immigration policies that bring in 1.2 million LEGAL IMMIGRANTS A YEAR, 87% of whom are minorities as classified by the USG, we are cutting our own throats.

57% of immigrant headed households with children are on welfare. This makes them the natural constituents of the Dems, the party of free stuff. Reality is a bitch. You can point out the exceptions but it is like the guy who when told he was losing 5 cents a widget, he responded, "Don't worry, I'll make it up in volume." Cheers.

[JediJones]

Suffolk’s stopping polling in these 3 states is all I needed to hear. To me that’s a serious case of actions speaking louder than words.

That also may show wisdom in Romney picking Ryan over Rubio. If FL was in the bag, Rubio doesn’t help there. Paul Ryan ought to be a better pick for the midwestern Ohio. I’m just not quite sure what the problem is with Ohio right now. If it’s the auto bailout, then Romney probably needs to prepare a stronger and clearer defense of his position on that for the next debates.

[Yashcheritsiy]

This was a factor that helped make my transition to supporting Romney/Ryan easier (the prime factor was the distinct difference in response to Libya).

Frankly, in this election, there is simply going to be no support for drawing support away from Obama’s opponents, other than for a very few die hards.

I’d LOVE it if the GOP could be radically restructured to reflect the conservatism of its rank-and-file, or else deconstructed and rebuilt into a new Party, a al the Whigs in the late 1850s. If this is to happen, it will have to wait until after Nov. 6.

[xzins]

If Romney follows through with his pro-life pledges, then he might get my vote next time. But, as long as he has the history he does with that, homosexualism, gun control, and big government, then I simply don’t trust him. And, his anti-life past makes it impossible for me to support him. Jehoshaphat’s alliances.

[SoConPubbie]

Frankly, in this election, there is simply going to be no support for drawing support away from Obama’s opponents, other than for a very few die hards.

Then count me as one of the die-hards.

I won't sell my soul, my relationship to my heavenly Father, because of fear of unknown political consequenses.

All Romney has to do to solidify support with all conservatives, including those Christians who refuse to support a man who supports both the Gay Agenda and Abortion, as Mitt Romney does, is to truly become Pro-Life and renounce his support for Abortion in the cases of Rape, Incest, Life and Health of the mother and to renounce his support for the Gay Agenda including Gay Adoption, Gays in the Military, and Gays in the Boy Scouts.

If he chooses to renounce is un-Christian positions on these issues, I'll charge Hell with a bucket of cold water for him, otherwise, I'll vote for someone at the POTUS level who is actually a Christian, like EternalVigilance.

It's one thing to vote for Romney, for whatever reason, it's quite another to actively promote him.

[SoConPubbie]

Frankly, in this election, there is simply going to be no support for drawing support away from Obama’s opponents, other than for a very few die hards.

Then count me as one of the die-hards.

I won't sell my soul, my relationship to my heavenly Father, because of fear of unknown political consequenses.

All Romney has to do to solidify support with all conservatives, including those Christians who refuse to support a man who supports both the Gay Agenda and Abortion, as Mitt Romney does, is to truly become Pro-Life and renounce his support for Abortion in the cases of Rape, Incest, Life and Health of the mother and to renounce his support for the Gay Agenda including Gay Adoption, Gays in the Military, and Gays in the Boy Scouts.

If he chooses to renounce is un-Christian positions on these issues, I'll charge Hell with a bucket of cold water for him, otherwise, I'll vote for someone at the POTUS level who is actually a Christian, like EternalVigilance.

It's one thing to vote for Romney, for whatever reason, it's quite another to actively promote him.

[SoConPubbie]

Frankly, in this election, there is simply going to be no support for drawing support away from Obama’s opponents, other than for a very few die hards.

Then count me as one of the die-hards.

I won't sell my soul, my relationship to my heavenly Father, because of fear of unknown political consequenses.

All Romney has to do to solidify support with all conservatives, including those Christians who refuse to support a man who supports both the Gay Agenda and Abortion, as Mitt Romney does, is to truly become Pro-Life and renounce his support for Abortion in the cases of Rape, Incest, Life and Health of the mother and to renounce his support for the Gay Agenda including Gay Adoption, Gays in the Military, and Gays in the Boy Scouts.

If he chooses to renounce is un-Christian positions on these issues, I'll charge Hell with a bucket of cold water for him, otherwise, I'll vote for someone at the POTUS level who is actually a Christian, like EternalVigilance.

It's one thing to vote for Romney, for whatever reason, it's quite another to actively promote him.

[EDINVA]

I’ll proudly cast my vote for both Romney and Allen, and for Patrick Murray for Congress, this coming Thursday.

[Yashcheritsiy]

I won't sell my soul, my relationship to my heavenly Father, because of fear of unknown political consequenses.

See, this is the sort of "political Christianity" that I think is a heretical replacement for REAL Christianity. Nobody "loses their relationship" with God, just because they don't vote for your preferred third party candidate.