McDonnelll won Fairfax County by about 4,500 votes--138,655 to 134,189 (50.7% to 49.1%). There were about 273,000 votes cast.
In 2008 Obama took Fairfax County 310,000 to 201,000 (60% to 39%). There were over 500,000 votes cast or almost twice the number of the 2009 off year election of McDonnell.
In 2004, John Kerry won Fairfax County 246,000 to 212,000, the first time a Dem did that in a Presidential election in 40 years. The changing demographics of Fairfax are making it more and more Dem. It is reflected at every level of government.
You can not compare 2009 to 2012. The turnout will be much greater. If we can just break anywhere near to even, Romney will win the state. I seriously doubt that Romney will win Fairfax County. Ain't going to happen..
Maybe one pro-GOP factor is that economically successful foreign-born citizens (of whom there seem to be a lot in FFX) lean toward the GOP — at least, when there are no maccaca-type comments from the GOP side (Allen), and when there is no Asian wife on the Dhimmi side (Webb).
Not so. The vast majority of immigrants are minorities as defined by the USG. The white population of the county has declined from 81.3% in 1990 to 62.7% in 2010. Blacks have increased from 7.7% in 1990 to 9.2%; asians from 8.5% to 17.6%; multiracial from 2.3% to 10.2%, and Hispanics from 6.3% to 15.6%. The population of the county has increased by about 270,000 since 1990, most of it due to immigration.
The number of ESOL students has increased by over a third in the past year. There are over 31,000 ESOL students out of a student population of 181,000. 50% of the students speak a language other than English at home.
Minorities and immigrants vote 2 to 1 Democrat. It is a myth and a delusion that they will vote Rep. Fairfax and NoVA will continue to trend Dem. Demography is destiny.
Minorities? For sure, if you're talking mainly about blacks and Hispanics.
But all immigrants? What about those non-black, non-Hispanic immigrants like the very prosperous Koreans and Chinese and Hindus that I see driving Mercedes and BMW's all around FFX? I don't claim to have poll numbers on how they will vote. What hard data do you have?