See ya at the polls commies!
http://www.tarrance.com/2012/09/the-49th-edition-of-the-politico-gw-battleground-poll/
select from this list: The data released includes the questionnaire, charts, tables, Republican and Democrat analysis.
The excerpt above is from the "Republican" analysis. I also looked at the Democrat analysis.
I first became aware of this poll in 1994. I was watching a roundtable discussion on C Span with a dozen (or more) pollsters. They went down the line asking the pollsters to predict the expected gains for each party. The Democrat pollsters naturally predicted modest gains for Republicans. Republican pollsters naturally predicted larger gains. When they got to Ed Goaz (The Republican half of The Battleground Poll), he said (I don't remember the exact amount) something like 40 or more House seats. Everyone else on the panel burst into laughter.
As we now know, it was a Republican LANDSLIDE taking control of the House for the first time in 40 years, gaining 54 seats. (8 Senate seats)
This is why I take the Republican half (Ed Goaz) of this poll as gospel. He has continued to be accurate.
I did notice a change in the Democrat analysis. It seemed more like a campaign release. Smarmy, with buzz words like "47 per cent". It just didn't sound credible to me. On the "middle class", the two reports were 180 degrees opposed. The tone of the Dems analysis and the many quoted statistics of the Republican analysis, leads me to objectively believe the Republican analysis and Ed Goaz.
If you are not familiar with this poll, you should check it out and come to your own conclusions. I believe it to be an accurate poll.
I have no affiliation with this poll, group, or anybody involved with it.
The author should be “Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber” not me. Moderator please correct my error.
I pray it is correct...!!!!
"In fact, even with all of the misleading partisan attacks on the proposals from Paul Ryan to reform Medicare, a majority of seniors (61%) select a pocketbook issue and not Medicare as their top issue of concern and nearly six in ten seniors (58%) are voting for the Romney/Ryan ticket."
Read that paragraph above and think Florida!
LOL. Joe Biden has higher unfavorables than Paul Ryan!
It’s not enough to just beat him. He has to lose, fall down in the mud and get egg on his face and then poop his pants. The Dems must be utterly humiliated, with their free phone lady, their free colonoscopies, and their free booze and cigs for vagrant voters.
Poll ping.
Contrary to some other polls (PEW etc), guess who is winning the faith-based electorate? Romney has got a majority of Catholics, according to this poll. That’s usually a predictive factor for a presidential election.
The middle class double digit lead is very big news as well. That would include a LOT of independents. It’s those indies who are always the wild card. There must be a reason why democratic party registration plummeted since 2008 across the swing states and OH, and the Independent registration jumped. Doesn’t seem like these indies would be voting lock-step with the Democrats either.
To tell you honestly, I have a lot of respect for the polling results and past performance and accuracy of the following polling outfits :
BATTLEGROUND POLL ( TARANCE GROUP )
SURVEY USA ( ESPECIALLY AT THE STATE LEVEL )
RASMUSSEN
Those 3 have proven to be consistently accurate. The rest are mostly noise.
Surprisingly, ZOGBY has been quite silent this year.
I’m done with polls...FOREVER!
Rush has talked about the Battleground Poll in the past, and how he took it more seriously than the others. I don’t remember how its predictions fell in 2008.
See ya at the polls commies!
AND add in Gallup’s 16 point Republican enthusiasm lead!
Ed Goeas was one of my mentors in 1993-1994 working with Empower America. IMO, one of the most thoughtful and insightful pollsters of our day.
I definitely remember watching that statement in 1994. Though they were not absolutely alone in saying the GOP would make huge gains, they were one of the very few. Rush really played that up, too.