The Battleground Poll 9/24/2012

The Tarrance Group ^ | 9/29/2012 | Faucetman

[faucetman]

"In our latest Politico/GWU Battleground Poll with middle class families, which comprise about fifty-four percent (54%) of the total American Electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a fourteen-point advantage (55%-41%)."

[wardaddy]

That is not statistically true but a nice gesture see chart at top of thread....circles indicate loser...and several are over 50%

Catholics are at most 25% of electorate

Whites are around 72-74%

If Romney only gets 51% of white vote he loses

The Catholic vote is as overrated as the Jewish vote

He can get 80% and its only 16% or so of the electorate

What pisses me off is that if Catholics voted like they are taught and truly believed it would help....a lot...not a guarantee but would help

Instead about half or more vote like Disciples of Christ or Episcopalians

Too many just go through the motions with little faith or belief in Gods rules on behavior and consequence.....which is frankly rather more forgiving than my own sterner faith

I liked that last Pope.....not sure of the answer for the Catholic church

Issue with my own denomination is the opposite....clergy likely becoming more PC than the congregants.....ie recent SBC race groveling in Nashville

No denomination is perfect and only a few serious remain

[wardaddy]

That is not statistically true but a nice gesture see chart at top of thread....circles indicate loser...and several are over 50%

Catholics are at most 25% of electorate

Whites are around 72-74%

If Romney only gets 51% of white vote he loses

The Catholic vote is as overrated as the Jewish vote

He can get 80% and its only 16% or so of the electorate

What pisses me off is that if Catholics voted like they are taught and truly believed it would help....a lot...not a guarantee but would help

Instead about half or more vote like Disciples of Christ or Episcopalians

Too many just go through the motions with little faith or belief in Gods rules on behavior and consequence.....which is frankly rather more forgiving than my own sterner faith

I liked that last Pope.....not sure of the answer for the Catholic church

Issue with my own denomination is the opposite....clergy likely becoming more PC than the congregants.....ie recent SBC race groveling in Nashville

No denomination is perfect and only a few serious remain

[jmaroneps37]

AND add in Gallup’s 16 point Republican enthusiasm lead!

[WOSG]

Catholics, at 25% of the electorate, and not all white (think how many hispanic Catholics there are), are a ‘swing electorate’, they are not in GOP camp like white evangelicals.
They are not all church-going, and those who do are prolife but not all conservative.

So given all those headwinds, a 51% vote for Romney would be a good sign pointing towards the kind of victory Bush had in 2004 when he won that slice of catholic voters.

I stand by my statement.

“What pisses me off is that if Catholics voted like they are taught and truly believed it would help....a lot...not a guarantee but would help”

half of catholics dont even attend church regularly, and those are the ones more Democrat in their voting pattern. So are you more pissed about non-church-going catholics missing Mass or voting Obama? Just like non-devout Jews or ‘anyones’, if their real religion is Liberalism, its a lost cause unless we can deprogram their belief in liberal myths.

I’ve seen low SBC support for Romney in polls. you can fix that better than fixing fallen catholics. you need to tell your brethren to put their anti-mormonism aside at the polling booth and vote to save the country.

[WOSG]

Nice chart.

12 out of 16 times, Catholics ‘picked’ the winner.
This is a classic swing electorate. If you look at 1948 and the 1960s, they were more Democrat-leaning, they have shifted to being swing voters over time.

[wardaddy]

You have no idea what you are talking about

Typical Yankee hypocrisy and hubris

Lecturing a southern baptist about GOP turnout while ignoring that frequently over half of your own kind vote pro abort

I just left Thompson Station Baptist and our preacher lectured hard about the election and our culture

Many joined the 40 day prayer and fast commitment today just for this election

The stats on both denominations voting wise are obvious your canards notwithstanding

Catholics are simply more liberal than hardline Prods as a rule..there is denying that....why some Catholics here deny that ans act so chauvinist otherwise is just a reflection of larger older resentments

I for one have never thought southern baptists were the only true path

[MNJohnnie]

Romney has 51% if Catholics in this poll...not all that inspiring to be frank

Catholics normally are a solid Democrat voting base. If you don't think Romney winning the Catholic vote is inspiring, you are looking for excuse to not be inspired.

[WOSG]

“Catholics are simply more liberal than hardline Prods as a rule..there is denying that....why some Catholics here deny ..”

I dunno, I never denied that catholics are a swing vote and explained WHY. I am well aware of liberals in the catholic church, but you may not be aware of the church’s highlighting ‘religious liberty’ this year and explicitly denouncing Obama administrations rules in HHS. Some have gone further:
http://www.examiner.com/article/catholic-bishop-claims-democrats-support-evil-will-go-to-hell
Catholic Bishop claims Democrats support evil, will go to hell

One article put it this way:

““That either shows that the more practicing you are, the more pro-Romney (or anti-Obama) you are,” Allen said in an e-mail message, “or it says something about the political message Catholics are getting in their parishes these days.””

SO why are you being a jerk about it and calling me names? We agree.

As is typical when jerks get their dander up, they make a bunch of rash assumptions. You might to check where I actually live. Hubris indeed!

[usconservative]

This is why I take the Republican half (Ed Goaz) of this poll as gospel. He has continued to be accurate.

Ed Goeas was one of my mentors in 1993-1994 working with Empower America. IMO, one of the most thoughtful and insightful pollsters of our day.

[Impala64ssa]

[fifedom]

Now I like Rasmussen, but it is only one out of seven that show him ahead there as of today.

Accuracy of polling is not a popularity contest. Many of the other polls you are citing (Gallup, etc) are Rat propaganda trying to discourage republican voters.

You need to get more sophisticated about your analysis or take your propaganda elsewhere.

[vox_freedom]

OK, so all polling is biased except Rasmussen? Yeah that’s sophisticated.
Propaganda has lies or untruths associated with it. Show me where that occurred or shut up.

[vox_freedom]

OK, so all polling is biased except Rasmussen? Yeah that’s sophisticated.
Propaganda has lies or untruths associated with it. Show me where that occurred or shut up.

[Irish Eyes]

I have seen that map before. That is a map where they do not include toss-up states. They are calling states by the latest poll to the exact percent, using poll averages (all of them)

[vox_freedom]

I didn't use Gallup data or a particular survey, but a compendium from RealClearPolitics.com
Perhaps you've heard of it. And maybe you could take a look at this GOP favored survey:

Civitas poll: Obama, Biden lead in NC

[vox_freedom]

Very comprehensive polling data can be found here:

RealClearPolitics.com

[grey_whiskers]

When are his numbers going to start changing?

Closer to the election, when the pollsters have to start pretending to be honest.

Cheers!

[grey_whiskers]

You are clinically insane if you think a poll showing Romney losing OH and N. Carolina is at all accurate.

Early absentee ballot requests by party fortell Romney winning Ohio easily (compare to 2008 stats); and Obama won North Carolina by only 14,000 votes at his high-water mark ("this was the moment...when the oceans began to recede").

WI went full GOP and couldn't recall Walker; VA and FL are likewise not gimmees for Obaama.

Try again.

Cheers!

[vox_freedom]

I didn’t make any “predictions” for the results on November 6th, only what the latest surveys showed... Why is it so many here are so sensitive about facts and truth?
Cheers.

[grey_whiskers]

FReepers are upset that lies such as yours are being presented as facts and truth.

If you want people being upset about facts, go back to DU.

Cheers!