Posted on 09/26/2012 9:08:31 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men.
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
More from Morris:
So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.
Well one good thing is going to come out of this election. Either the GOP Establishment pundits like Rove and Morris are going to get their ass handed them or the Leftist Media pollsters are.
I wish Dick Morris was correct but it looks to me that Obama is going to win unless something changes significantly.
I think I'm having election anxiety— Obama’s gotta go!
Pretty sure Morris is flat out lying on this one. Even the Romney camp is saying they are behind, just not as far behind as the public polls suggest.
At the same time, I sure hope he is correct.
How’s that? Polls are even. Obama probably has slight lead electorally. Its far from over. Ohio is my only concern right now.
What did Dick Morris predict about the presidential race in 2008?
No Way O’Bumbler walks away with this election. Name ONE, JUST ONE, person who voted for McCain that has decided that O’Bumbler has done such a good job that he deserves a second term!
Now think about just the people you know who voted O’Bumbler who are either NOT voting for him this time or are actively voting against him.
Do you think you are the only one?
You are letting them get to you. This is exactly what they want.
Go to www.unskewedpolls.com and read the articles along the left-hand side.
Morris gave the best explanation of what’s really going on with the polls tonight on O’Reilly, and even the Bloviator in Chief shut up long enough to learn something
It’s psyops. Don’t let them win.
He was right abpout the mid terms, amost dead on. He came coser than any anayst to the wipe out that the Democrats sustained.
The Repubicans amost took the Senate. If not for the Anti-Conservative Repubican estabishment back bighters , they probaby would have.
It is time to take the gloves off!
He nailed the midterms when everyone else were predicting smaoll losses he predicted 65 seats. Too bad Scott Walker lost the recall too.
Pray for America
And your expertise is in ????
And Your facts are exactly what ?????
Well, I live in Pennsylvania, one of the states Morris says is tipping to Romney.
I don’t know anyone who voted for Obama in 08 who is voting for Romney this time around. I can hardly think of anyone, outside myself who voted for McCain.
Right now I am in Florida and in my informal survey here Obama is winning as well.
When you are surrounded by Democrats it is hard not to be influenced. And the numbers support me.
Toe-Sucker Speaks!
Based on what? The only indicator I see of an Obama win from here is Romney’s tepid messaging.
THIS IS LIKE 1980....Just go vote and take someone with you...Polls mean nothing until the last week they need to look half way right.. They will say it is really close...
What part of Florida are you in? All the dems are in hiding over here on the West side.
Gee your a FL expertise based what exactly again since your from Pa ???
Funny how my family is from there and they say the exact opposite ???
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