Posted on 09/14/2012 7:43:57 PM PDT by re_tail20
Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.
Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.
But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.
For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
What prompted me to post this was a video link to Chris Matthews, who dares to say that Romney was arrogant to even run against Obama.
When will Chris bottom out? He’s 67 and running out of time.
There is no justice in the world when Tim Russert dies unexpectedly of a heart attack, and that dirty weasel Chris Matthews continues to plod along spewing his abominable bile and garbage.
both camps are neck to neck; with each side having negatives/plus.
We still have lots of days to go. A lot of people don't even vote. The small portion of the citizens decide the future of the elections. That is a difficult realization to see that most people don't vote at all.
If recent events have convinced even a confirmed Romney-skeptic like myself to vote for Romney/Ryan, then I’d say he’s on his way to a win in Nov.
Obama now has the same problem Hillary would have with a presidential election (that he didn’t have in 2008): everybody knows him, and either loves him or hates him (there really are no more “undecideds”). There are simply not enough people who love him.
Yes but....Will Gary Johnson do damage. Why this man is helping Barack Obama is beyond me. God help us, we need you now more than ever.
If Mr Romney wins, lots of damage can be done between Nov 6 and the new admin. in January.
With terror cells taking over all over the world, quite possibly the cells here just wait for the word and we are next. I believe our president knows what is happening and he is not only not discouraging it, he is almost ignoring it. He knows more than all of his faithful followers know, the truth will be found out and guess what..TOO LATE WE LOSE.
The small portion of the citizens decide the future of the elections. That is a difficult realization to see that most people don’t vote at all.
Incorrect. Over 60% of people voted in both 2004 and 2008.
...we still have the remaining Embassies for Odungo to turn over to radical moooslims before next week, let’s wait....
Can I tweek your sentence?
“There is no justice in the world when Tim Russert AND Andrew Breitbart die unexpectedly...”
“That is a difficult realization to see that most people don’t vote at all.”
People are politically apathetic when they don’t see any real difference in candidates or real impact on their lives; very few people have that luxury anymore. Desperate economic conditions brought about Marxism and Nazism in other countries; here we can hope they will bring people up off their couches. I think there is a silent anger that manifested itself in the TEA party, the Republican victories since The Sultan’s coronation, and the fact that as Rush pointed out - with the media working all-out for Obama, he should be ahead by twenty points.
He's been out as a bottom ever since he made the comment about Obama sending a thrill up his leg.
Do not discount voter fraud, no ID’s required to vote let alone citizenship proof, dead people voting in democrat districts, Acorn, and almost 1/2 population collecting government benefits.....that is a very big mountain to climb.
My take.
Obama cannot get over 50% support. Not without a poll that over-samples Democrats by +11, and even then, he rarely breaks 50%. Now, history show us that undecideds will break from Romney. They make up 3% most likely.
So we have one variable. Independents. This incumbent isn’t doing well. Polls in recent weeks have had Romney with 8, 10, and even 14 point leads among this group.
So what is the explanation for these CBS polls that show Obama ahead, if he’s losing independents? Simple. They are assuming Obama will get his 2008 turnout again. THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. NO F***ING WAY. There is little enthusiasm for Obama outside the far left (as is evident by the lack of gullible teenagers at the Obama campaign HQs), yet conservatives (though cautious about Romney), are consistently determined to remove Obama from office.
Now we have dead people and burning embassies across the Middle East, another credit downgrade, a record of no success, and a country that’s majority believe they are not better off than they were four years ago.
I think this election will be close, not a blowout, but we will win by approximately 5 points.
Thanks re_tail20.
My hubby's aunt and uncle are both registered but will not vote. They did for many years but they say nothing ever changes; the politicians are all corrupt. They are mad as can be with Obama. We try to talk to them; though, they are not going and of course we are respectful to them.
“How dare you put up an opposition candidate!! You so arrogant! Unlike my lord and savior Obama”
the hypocrisy is palatable
Yeah, Morris said the same thing about McCain. Just another GOP elite trying to shove it down our thoughts. I am sick to death of the lot of them.
‘He’s drinking again....’
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