Posted on 09/13/2012 6:41:07 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
This is the first time in a week that Romney has held even a single-point advantage. See daily tracking history. Romney is now supported by 18% of white Democrats.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It is the President’s responsibility to advise the nominee on matters of national security during a crisis. What was Romney to do? He would have looked bad had he not said anything. Obama should have briefed Romney and craft a common statement. But Obama figured Romney was going to say something, and his lackeys in the media would then pounce on Romney for saying it.....the man has no shame.
Four more years of Obama and he will have no escape from accountability. The blame will be placed squarely on his shoulders...while putting us back to the Dark Ages.
Various polls show Romney getting roughly 20% of the democratic vote.. Independents will break easily in the range of 2-1 for Romney... The very idea this is a “close” election is pure propoganda folks.
Lets just say for a minute, that the 20% is only white democrats, as mentioned in this poll (its not, its about 20% of overall democrats, but lets just keep it to that level for now)... White Democrats are the SINGLE LARGERST BLOC OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, period. You can’t lose 20% of them, and think everything’s okay. The overal breakdown is about 30-30-40 R, D, I.. now these numbers vary somewhat between elections, but that’s the general breakdown... Currently WHITES make up 63% of registered democrats!
So, losing 20% of them, based on a 30% number of the overall population is about 12% of the democratic voting! Now that means OVER 10% of your overall BASE has no intention of voting for your candidate!! 10%!!! That’s insurmountable folkd. 10% of your registered party members (if you just keep it to just 20% of whites) aren’t going to vote for you, and you are losing independents by 15% or more in most polls!!! yet these same polls are trying to tell you the election is close??? Its not mathematically possible folks!!! The ONLY way you get there is by oversampling democrats.. that’s the ONLY way you can get your overall poll to show a Sitting Politician who if they lst just 3% of their vote total from their previous election would LOSE this election, could be down 7% of the overall voting population! (12% of the Democratic vote = 3.6% of overall vote, and losing the independent vote by 14 points means that 40% independent voter you are only going to get 43% of 40% of the overall vote, is a 7% deficit to EVEN, in a group you WON last time, that 7% deficite, to even, let alone the deficit to where you were last time since you won independents by more than 50% is another 2.8% ov the overall vote. So, even with this polls very generous internals to Obama, the math tells you, he’s down over 6 points from 2008 at LEAST (6.4% to be exact), and that makes his overall number using 2008 as your baseline Obama will only get 46.5% of the vote.
Now if you extrapolate that 20% to the entire democratic voting base, and not just white, he’s not down 3.6% of overall vote, he’s down 6% of the overall vote, 6% + 2.8% = 8.8%! An 8.8% from 2008 makes Obama’s vote total expectation 44.1%.. Now when you factor in the deltas in enthusiam and turnout, and the fact that Obama’s will likely lose independents by far more than 14 points, Obama is down to 42-43% AT BEST for this election.
Honestly, I truly believe this fool will be lucky to see 40% on election day. It will be very interesting to see what the 3 day rollings say next thursday, when that weeks 3 day will not have weekend numbers, now that Obama’s foreign policy failures are undeniably front and center.
I fully expect Obama to lose the independent vote in the 5-2 to 2-1 range.
The answer is in the internals.
"Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats."
Romney has a 5 point lead in a straight matchup of Democrat vs. Republican. Every poll for the last month shows him with a 5 point or greater lead among independents. So this poll has to be heavily weighted toward Democrats.
In 2010 Republicans turnout exceeded Democrat. Polls on party affiliation this summer indicate that Republican registration is about 1 to 2 points higher than Democrat.
Put it all together and it says Republican and Democrat turnout should be about equal or slightly Republican. Romney is sitting pretty good at the moment.
In Mid-October, the pollsters will use a more balanced Democrat-Republican mix. They have to have an accurate showing to preserve their reputation. At that time Romney's real lead will show.
Good analysis Hamilton but national popularity polls are meaningless. We need to look at swing states polls, if we are to believe them, in the which I think all of them have at least Romney ahead, in a dead heat or just out of the MFE. I am ignoring these polls for right now till the last week in October. They will vacillate back and forth, pollsters have to sell soap just like the rest of us will use that special sauce whenever necessary to create the illusion of a horse race. I can say the libs are acting like we did in 2008, grasping and hoping above hope for some pools to buoy their confidence. The swagger is gone , sweating from Axelrod down, gone is the aire of inevitability. The cocksure attitude of their smirking , smarmy, Trader Joes shopping, metrosexual Volkssturm has evaporated. Look at their convention, the lunacy there, and the shrillness of their shills in the media. Will Obama Democrats vote for Romney, probably not, but will they stay home like they did in 2010, I think they will. That will be the difference, I think even the most partisan liberal pundits are getting cold sweats because they know they could at best be looking at a close loss and at worst a total blowout with a loss of the Senate also.
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Yeah - those racist Democrats are sneaky!!! Voting for 0bama in ‘08 just so they can turn around and vote against him now!!!!
Hmmm, if I am reading this breakout correctly, Obama is winning the independent vote by 2%, which seems contradictory to most other polls I have seen out there. Plus, Romney is losing every age demographic except 65+.
Ok thanks, Its funny I have been monitoring the DU sites and they all think its in the bag! which makes me a little nervous that they arent worried at least a little...
The thought of 4 more years of Zero is not a pleasant thought!
This website has been cited here before; it recalculates the polls to try to get a more realistic assessment:
\\http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Romney ahead in this poll?
Guess Mr. Rasmussen will soon get a midnight visit from Holder’s Gestapo - er, I mean Justice Dept. - over how his sampling methods need to be “improved”, or else a bogus lawsuit may have to be filed against his polling firm.
“Romney didn’t “misstep”, no matter how the media is attempting to portray his statement.”
To the liberal media, which is an extention of the Obama campaign, you START with criticizing Romney, and then you build your reality around that premise.The media created a frenzy and wanted Romney to back down. RINO wimps do that, ya know.
But he didnt.
Romney led, did the right thing, said the right thing, and correctly criticized the craven apology out of Cairo.
Night before last, the President condemned Mitt Romney in harsher tones than he condemned the rioters. It took him until sun up yesterday to condemn them. So who’s politicizing more here?
This is playing out in a way that makes Romney look like Reagan and Obama like Carter.
Don’t listen to that cynical voice. We will not have a chance to turn this around in 4 years. We have to stop the fiscal bleeding now. Blame is irrelevant, this is now life and death.
In 2008 0bama was a blank slate mouthing platitudes. Average Democrats could define his positions any way they wanted
In 2012 0bama is a known quantity. Average Dems now know what he actually stands for.
It’s not about blame or preventing the crash, it’s about who’s in power when it does crash and what he’ll do in response to it.
Romney MUST MUST MUST take the attack to Obama! Yesterday’s correct comments by Romney about the administration’s gutless, pathetic comments from the Cairo dhimmis certainly made it to the media hit parade! So Romney can get his message out IF he wants too. And it’s clear from yesterday’s concerted attempts by the MSM to castigate Romney that he only need attack Obama to be heard across the nation.
He MUST expose Obama as the MArxist, America-hating thug he is. The truth will get conservative voters to the polls. Wimpy, piss-ant, McCain-type statements will net Romney NOTHING, just as they did Miss McCain in 2008. Nothing but voters so disgusted by his lack of guts that they stay at home on election day.
He cannot go back to being Milquetoast Mitt, he’s got this now. They’re panicking. They didn’t expect this from Mitt, and they’re freaking out about it.
The Left are masters of simply tuning out any inconvenient data and lying to themselves. The major difference between their analysis and what you see here is they post their feelings while people here usually back up their analysis with actual data from the polling.
The other thing to note is Obama started slipping with Democrats after the Convention. There are still a whole of of Democrats who “cling to their God and their Guns” who are not amused by what they saw at the DNC
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