CNN Poll: Obama up six points over Romney

CNN ^ | 09/10/2012 | CNN Political Unit

[nhwingut]

(CNN) – A new survey indicates President Barack Obama moved up four points following the Democratic National Convention last week, and now has a six point advantage over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 52% of likely voters nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

[shotgun]

Yeah and Scott Walker was going to be recalled as Wisconsin Governor!

These polls are way off and silent majority will rise up again correct things.

[Arthurio]

Among registered voters only, the numbers did not move one iota from CNN’s previous poll of a week ago. Among likely voters, Obama now gets a 6 point bump.

Basically, apathetic Democrats who missed the likely voter screen last week suddenly became enthusiastic from all the speeches and made the likely voter screen this week.

I doubt such enthusiasm can be sustained. Slick Willie can only give so many speeches. It does tell you one thing though: the RNC’s plain vanilla convention should have been tossing out more red meat like the Dims did.

[Kenny]

Probably true the way Romney’s campaigning or not campaigning. Then he plays word games with Obamacare and calls Obama a nice guy.

I swear I’ve tried my best to support him but I think the bottom line is, Romney only learns from his failures. First Newt nailed him big in GA, then Santorum in a number of states. Sure he bounced back but here’s the news flash, Romney:

No do-overs in the general.

[Snake65]

If the +14 independents going for Romney is accurate, Obama is toast. Well, worse than toast, toast is tasty.

[Perdogg]

CNN/ORC Actually Surveyed the DNC This Time Showing Obama +6 Nationally

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/10/cnnorc-actually-surveyed-the-dnc-this-time-showing-obama-6-nationally/

CNN/ORC Actually Surveyed the DNC This Time Showing Obama +6 Nationally

Today CNN released a poll showing a sizable Obama bounce. We’ve blogged CNN’s biased polls before and this survey has all the hallmarks of a truly unrealistic sampling of America. I made a joke about this previously, but it looks like CNN surveyed the floor of the Democrat Convention for it latest poll. They won’t reveal the party ID of voters but look at how their representative sample views the two parties:
•Democrat Party Favorability +8 at 51 to 43
•Republican Party Favorability – 10 at 42 to 52.

There is a 0% chance America sees the two parties this way and will again deliver an overwhelming majority back to the House and no worse than 50/50 split in the Senate.

Here are my other examples demonstrating the bias in sampling. The first bullet is the most damning:
•Romney has a 14-point lead among Independents (54 to 40) and is down 6 in the poll. If Romney wins Independents by 14 points he wins the election in a blowout
•Obama’s favorability at 57% versus 42% unfavorable. Favorability is different from job approval but he’s never this high
•Obama is +1 on handling the economy 50 to 49. No survey EVER claims this
•Obama is +1 among men 48 to 47. Obama is typically down 6-8 points among men. He was +1 in 2008, not today

Silver linings:
•Even in this hugely biased poll Mitt Romney has a +1 on favorability 48 to 47.
•Romney is +2 with people over 50 on handling medicare 49 to 47

CNN and ORC International continue to show extreme bias in their polling. If the above statistics were representative of today’s electorate Obama would win re-election in a landslide, yet they can only find him with a six-point lead. Thankfully this survey is worth the same as you pay to read this blog: nothing.

[MNJohnnie]

Yes Obama is in the midst of the standard 4-5 point “Rally to the Flag” 09-11 bump that happens ever year during the 09-11 anniversary.

Problem is those trying to spin the election based on this bump fail to consider this bump always fades within 10 days.

[napscoordinator]

Women at 51 percent is one of the reasons for the high Obama numbers.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Yeah I remember Bob Beckel guaranteeing that Scott Walker would be recalled. He guaranteed it on “The Five.” These polls are useless when they oversample Dems by 10+ points, the media must really really think we are stupid

[GlockThe Vote]

I am voting RR no matter what, but his campaign so far is a mess.

[nhwingut]

If the +14 independents going for Romney is accurate, Obama is toast. Well, worse than toast, toast is tasty.

Right. Obama won indies last time at 8%. If he loses this time by 10% (18% swing), Romney should win by 4 points, solid.

[italianquaker]

You cannot ignore this, the “concerned” posters will not allow it

[Sarah Barracuda]

EXACTLY..if this poll is true and Romney is up 14 points with Independents Romney has already won, no matter the media keeps on feeding us these phony baloney polls showing Obama leading. It is impossible to believe that Romney would be down any amount if he has a 14 point advantage amongst Independents.

[Sooth2222]

Still the "bounce". Nice speeches by Clinton and Sandra Fluke -- but it's now Monday, and there's still no job, the eviction notice is still on the apartment door, and over the weekend the car has been repossessed. Obama's bounce should begin fading by later this week.

[Izzy Dunne]

President John F'ing Kerry likes this.

[nhwingut]

Check out their home page re: Election 2012. LOL. All pro Obama anti Romney/GOP.

[SoFloFreeper]

They won’t reveal the party ID of voters but look at how their representative sample views the two parties...

You know there is a real problem when they won't reveal the party breakdown.

I suspect the next step will be they will lie about their breakdown. We'll get to the point where we'll be told there are more Republicans than Democrats in the sample, but Obamugabe is still winning by 5 points.

[spetznaz]

Even if the poll is accurate (which I highly doubt since polls can be quite open to ‘meddling’), the fact still remains that a LOT can happen in the time remaining to the election. As long as Conservative and Republican voters get up and go vote there is nothing to worry about.

[RoseofTexas]

FUDGE THE POLLS!! I ain’t going down without a FIGHT!! Hell NO!! TOO MUCH at stake here! I KNOW what the mediaBASTARDS are trying to do and it ain’t gonna work....GET MAD NOT DEMORALIZED...FIGHT DAMN ITS...FIGHT!! I’M telling you I AIN’T GOING DOWN WITHOUT A GOOD FIGHT FOUGHT !! NO WAY AND NO HOW!! YES, I’m in a Red State, but I’m STILL gonna take my friends, family and WHOEVER to the polls!! FIGHT, FIGHT and then FIGHT some more...IT AIN’T OVER YET! ENUFF of the polls doomsayers...IF you can spare some bucks DONATE to R&R camp and last PRAY, PRAY that God would remove the blinders from the American folk. HE IS OUR ONLY SOURCE to a SUPERNATURAL VICTORY!! Obombo has the mediaWHORES, HELLywood, the HOMOS and the communist educators and unions in his pocket...WE on the other hand have only The ALMIGHTY and each other to fight them....JUST rewind the DNC anti-God and Israel fiasco to know...GOD IS ON OUR SIDE!!

[Izzy Dunne]

Ideology
Conservative 21% 70% 7% 3%
Moderate 56% 34% 8% 1%
Liberal 88% 3% 9% 1%

21% of self-described Conservatives are voting for O'bama ? ? ? Bovine Excrement.

[Ingtar]

I find the TIPP poll you cite interesting. It is within a half point of my current “reweighted” poll average. Obama + 2.55. If I treat Rasmussen as being unreliable as CNN due to the really odd numbers they have put out since Romney took the lead in their poll, it is +1.84. This is not where one would like to see the GOP at this point. Considering it is coming after a “hidden” GOP convention and a marque ed DIM convention, it is not bad for Romney. Honestly, it looks like all the pollsters in the big groups decided “The convention will benefit Obama by X amount”.