Posted on 08/29/2012 9:14:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new poll paid for by the Family Research Council, a pro-life group, indicates pro-life Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin now leads pro-abortion Sen. Clair McCaskill in the race despite the controversial comments he made about abortion and rape.
The pro-life group says the poll is evidence that Akin should not drop out of the race and that calls for him to do so were premature.
The new survey conducted by Wenzel Strategies of likely Missouri general election voters shows that Senate candidate Todd Akin has regained his lead over Senator Claire McCaskill by a 45% to 42% margin, with 13% undecided. It also shows Akin leading by 10 points among independent voters.
Fritz Wenzel analyzed the results of the survey and concluded that “Despite the firestorm of news in the Senate race over the past few weeks, most voters have already made up their mind in the race, the survey shows. The fact that 80% said they were firm in their choice certainly indicates that this is a race that will be decided more by ideology and turnout efforts by the campaigns and less by breaking news that flashes across the news pages and cable news channels.”
Family Research Council Action PAC Chairman Tony Perkins offered the following reaction:
“This polling shows that Missouri voters are returning to the substance of this race and the clear contrast of records between Todd Akin and Claire McCaskill. Throughout his career, Todd Akin has consistently fought for legislation that honors marriage, human life, religious freedom, and national security. He also has a long record of opposing the commodification of women–in stark contrast to his opponent and liberal detractors, who promote groups like Planned Parenthood while ignoring how abortion harms them.
“Senator McCaskill has supported taxpayer funding for abortion on demand despite opposition from a strong majority of voters. She came to the Senate claiming to govern from the center but has instead been a steadfast supporter of President Obama and his liberal policies.
“FRC Action PAC has enthusiastically endorsed Todd Akin for the U.S. Senate and will work to bring attention to the stark contrast between Todd Akin’s pro-family, fiscally responsible record and Senator McCaskill’s record of taxpayer funding for abortion and government-controlled health care,” concluded Perkins.
Pollsters still at it jimmying the numbers to get “their” result. Do you know what the Electoral College map would look like if national polls used this sample? A 400-EV majority for Romney.
RE: Do you know anything about Wenzel Strategies, SeekAndFind?
I don’t know anything about them other than what they tell us about themselves in their website:
http://www.wenzelstrategies.com/
Wenzel is the pollster Farah uses when he wants to show how much support birtherism has. OTOH, he was relatively accurate about the Cruz/Dewhurst race. FWIW.
Those numbers are pretty representative of the Missouri electorate — though the INDY might be just a little high.
Here’s a brief intro to their survey methodology:
Wenzel Strategies conducted a survey of likely voters statewide in Missouri regarding the race for the U.S. Senate seat representing Missouri. The survey was conducted Aug. 27-28, 2012, and included 829 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.38 percentage points
See here:
Bull hockey. Rasmussen (the most honest and trusted pollster) has Akin down by 10.
The state motto of Missouri is “Show me”.
I lived there for 25 years and a much more descriptive one would be “Stand Your Ground”.
Or perhaps simply “Up Yours”. That would work too.
There were a lot of men from Missouri who were present at the Alamo. It wasn’t a coincidence.
I suspect Akin has a good chance.
“Wenzel is the pollster Farah uses when he wants to show how much support birtherism has. OTOH, he was relatively accurate about the Cruz/Dewhurst race. FWIW.”
Thanks.
His track record on the Cruz race gives me encouragement he may be right about Akin/ObamaClaire.
For those who want to read the poll results and don’t want to bother going to their website ( or even clicking on the link I provided in Post #1 ), I cut and paste their summary:
___________________________________
Wenzel Strategies conducted a survey of likely voters statewide in Missouri regarding the race for the U.S. Senate seat representing Missouri. The survey was conducted Aug. 27-28, 2012, and included 829 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.38 percentage points.
The Wenzel Strategies telephone survey of likely General Election voters in Missouri shows that Republican Todd Akin leads incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill in the race for U.S. Senate by a 45% to 42% margin, with 13% undecided.
The survey, conducted Aug. 27-28, 2012, shows that four out of five voters in Missouri are firm in their choice for U.S. Senate.
Akin holds a 10-point advantage among independent voters, leading 44% to 34% over McCaskill, which is a key to his overall advantage, the survey shows. McCaskill wins 82% support Democrats and Akin wins 78% among Republicans. While 6% of Democrats said they were unsure about their support, 11% of Republicans said the same thing.
McCaskill holds a 58% to 34% lead over Akin among very liberal voters, but that pales compared to Akin’s 81% to 5% lead over McCaskill among very conservative voters in Missouri. The survey also shows there are many more very conservative voters than very liberal voters in the state. Among moderate voters in Missouri, McCaskill leads by a 63% to 22% margin.
Despite the firestorm of news in the Senate race over the past few weeks, most voters have already made up their mind in the race, the survey shows. The fact that 80% said they were firm in their choice certainly indicates that this is a race that will be decided more by ideology and turnout efforts by the campaigns and less by breaking news that flashes across the news pages and cable news channels.
Overall, just 12% said they could change their minds before they vote, and 8% said they were very open to changing their minds before they cast their ballots.
McCaskill wins an overall favorable rating from 44% of likely voters, while 51% had an unfavorable opinion of her. Among Democrats, 82% held a favorable opinion, while just 11% of Republicans and 43% of independents said the same.
Akin was seen favorably by 44% of voters statewide, while 50% held an unfavorable view of him.
He won favorable ratings from 69% of Republicans, while 22% of Democrats and 40% of independents had the same opinion.
Better a foolish mistake, since repented, than a hard line Marxist!
All the more reason to only, ever give money to specific candidates, and NEVER to the RNC.
SENATE BALLOT TEST
Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent
AKIN 376 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4
McCASKILL 346 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 87.1
NOT SURE 107 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 100.0
Total 829 } 100.0 | 100.0
RE: Rasmussen (the most honest and trusted pollster) has Akin down by 10.
_____________________
The Wenzel Strategies Poll was Conducted 8/27-28, how long ago was the Rasmussen Poll?
How can this be? Akin’s doomed the GOP with that comment!
Which, really, is as it should be.
You didn't miss it.
I suggest a large grain of salt should be taken along with this poll. The R/D/I split is all over the place in today's polls and is generally set (IMHO) to provide a desired outcome regardless of the actual polling data. This poll could be R+20 for all we know. I don't trust it (although I would like to).
This has been one of the dumber Republican political episodes in recent memory. Akin was dumb to say what he said, and the RNC was dumb (and cowardly) to immediately jump up and say they’d give him no financial support, and many others piled on in a dumb manner which was mostly sucking up to PC-ness. More noise came from Republicans than from Dims during the early days of this.
There hasn’t been a lot to admire about any of the prominent Republicans during this entire episode. And now we, or rather the voters of Missouri, are stuck with Akin, so everyone else needs to shutup and let the voters of Missouri decide.
And, yes, The RNC and other Republican groups should give financial support to Akin. No one should forget who he’s trying to unseat, and the importance of gaining control of the Senate.
Akin 10 points down was at the peak of the storm, a bit of a rebound is expected. The real poll will show a deadheat
I have a feeling that very quietly, the RNC will fund him, when it dies down.
Good info, thanks.
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