For those who want to read the poll results and don’t want to bother going to their website ( or even clicking on the link I provided in Post #1 ), I cut and paste their summary:
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Wenzel Strategies conducted a survey of likely voters statewide in Missouri regarding the race for the U.S. Senate seat representing Missouri. The survey was conducted Aug. 27-28, 2012, and included 829 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.38 percentage points.
The Wenzel Strategies telephone survey of likely General Election voters in Missouri shows that Republican Todd Akin leads incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill in the race for U.S. Senate by a 45% to 42% margin, with 13% undecided.
The survey, conducted Aug. 27-28, 2012, shows that four out of five voters in Missouri are firm in their choice for U.S. Senate.
Akin holds a 10-point advantage among independent voters, leading 44% to 34% over McCaskill, which is a key to his overall advantage, the survey shows. McCaskill wins 82% support Democrats and Akin wins 78% among Republicans. While 6% of Democrats said they were unsure about their support, 11% of Republicans said the same thing.
McCaskill holds a 58% to 34% lead over Akin among very liberal voters, but that pales compared to Akin’s 81% to 5% lead over McCaskill among very conservative voters in Missouri. The survey also shows there are many more very conservative voters than very liberal voters in the state. Among moderate voters in Missouri, McCaskill leads by a 63% to 22% margin.
Despite the firestorm of news in the Senate race over the past few weeks, most voters have already made up their mind in the race, the survey shows. The fact that 80% said they were firm in their choice certainly indicates that this is a race that will be decided more by ideology and turnout efforts by the campaigns and less by breaking news that flashes across the news pages and cable news channels.
Overall, just 12% said they could change their minds before they vote, and 8% said they were very open to changing their minds before they cast their ballots.
McCaskill wins an overall favorable rating from 44% of likely voters, while 51% had an unfavorable opinion of her. Among Democrats, 82% held a favorable opinion, while just 11% of Republicans and 43% of independents said the same.
Akin was seen favorably by 44% of voters statewide, while 50% held an unfavorable view of him.
He won favorable ratings from 69% of Republicans, while 22% of Democrats and 40% of independents had the same opinion.
Which, really, is as it should be.
Thank you.
LLS
Crosstabs on this poll are very interesting. There are a lot of self identified Republicans who are saying they are undecided. I believe that number is 13%. I can not possibly envision these people voting for McCaskill. If they return to the flock as I expect they will this will bode very, very well for Akin.