All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)

Yahoo News - The Signal ^ | August 23, 2012 | David Rothschild

[QT3.14]

When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.

Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes. This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures. If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.

[QT3.14]

Mass-email to campaign supporters entitled THE END?
AM I TOAST IN 2012?
"It's August 23rd.
And 75 days from now,
I'll either be looking at another four years in the White House --
or the end of this opportunity."

[DPMD]

Let’s hope these predictions also factor in the massive voter fraud, especially in the swing/battleground states.

[Don Corleone]

It won’t be over until the ‘fat guy’ Soros sings. Take that to the bank.

[cuban leaf]

Let’s see how favorability plays out after the convention. ;-)

[Family Guy]

Favorability vs Unfavorability is a subjective thing. I have an unfavorable opinion of Romney compared to true conservatives, but he's still going to get my vote this year. Plus, I have a favorable opinion of Ryan.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Exactly, you always have to factor in the dead voters, illegals, and ACORN voters voting 50 times for Obama. Obama goons will stop at nothing to win in November, they will do every dirty trick in the book

[HamiltonJay]

Bullspit... The idea Obama has a prayer for re-election is laughable.

Let me reside over the WORST economic stewardship in everyones living collective memory, but I’m going to be re-elected? Its nonsense.

[arrogantsob]

Even if the trend is important, it is not pointing up for The Disaster.

[GeorgeWashingtonsGhost]

I heard he loves to be buttered.

[Jyotishi]

Lots of folks in the Arab world will be voting for Hussein — somehow.

[OrangeHoof]

For those who don’t click the link, the conclusion of the article is that Obama will still win because Obama is more likeable than Romney based on their favorable/unfavorable numbers.

That sounds to me like grasping for a reason to still support the king. I think Romney doesn’t have to be more liked to be elected. I think he needs to appear more competent than Obama to a majority of voters because this election, to many, isn’t about who makes the cutest couple (although that’s likely still true with a lot of women), it’s about which president is most likely to help me/my breadwinner get/keep his job.

[Kolath]

A win is a win....would like a blowout, but I just want that THING out of the Oval Office!!!!

[Ingtar]

This is the map that goes with the “big” model mentioned in the article:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=tdw

I built it based on the chart in the article.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I think Romney will win. But I think it will be close.

Obama will enter October far behind, and he will panic. He will then throw open the vote buying to unprecedented levels. Student loan forgiveness, mortgage principle cramdowns, restore usury laws to Visa cards, more free
stuff for Seniors, etc. etc. etc.

He will unfortunately be able to buy enough votes with outlandish promises to make things close.

[Uncle Miltie]

I’m calling it 55% / 45% for Romney. :-)

I’ll vote for Ryan like I voted for Sarah (danged top of the ticket!)

[scooby321]

I see Obama has turned more desperate having Gawker hack or re post Mitt's Finances he has at Bain now

Just like his Senatorial race

Liberals act like its a smoking gun he has investments at Bain today.

[MNJohnnie]

Bush left office with a high favorably rating. People though he was a nice guy, just sucked as President. Presidential Likeability is about the most useless factor to hang your hat on

But when, like the Democrats, your candidates have no solutions or ideas, wishful thinking is all you are left with.

[Mr. Bird]

It is grasping. First of all, Obama’s “favorability” is still under 50. Any incumbent with polling numbers under 50 is in deep trouble.

But Obama has it even worse: his favorability is inflated. Not by much, maybe 2 or 3 percentage points. But there are many people who are refraining from sharing their true opinion due to the race factor. When you spend four years knowing that any criticism of the president can get you labeled a racist, you tend to keep those feelings to yourself.

To be clear: those two or three points are not closet racists. Just the opposite. They are good people who do not want to be assumed racists.

Now that I’ve posted this, I suppose I’ll be called a racist.

[cdga5for4]

The best leaders couldn’t care less whether or not they are liked. Obama craves being liked or he can’t function.