Smell that? Smells like desperation....
Posted on 08/10/2012 8:21:55 AM PDT by barmag25
Okay, I'm not certain they are literally making up poll results, but the poll CNN and British market research firm ORC International released Thursday afternoon is so screwy and raises so many questions that they might as well be doing it intentionally. If CNN is already resorting to these kinds of tricks before the conventions have even started, it's going to be a very long campaign. First let me say, with less than three months to go in this campaign, can we please stop polling the political views of "adults", rather than "registered voters." We really should be moving soon to a "likely voter" screen, but I'll take "registered voters" for now. Knowing the political views of unregistered voters is worthless at the height of an election campaign and serves no real purpose but to give the Democrats an advantage. Nate Silver at the New York Times has estimated that polls of adults are biased towards Democrats by around 7 points.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!
I agree. As a registered Republican I almost never get called to participate. But when I do I lie to them. It’s fun.
Tony Snow on polls:
“The third news-cycle pox: Polls. Polls provide a ripe source for conflict because pollsters regularly reduce complex questions to queries of mind-numbing simplicity: Do you want America out of the war? Would you like it if the government guaranteed health care? Should the government guarantee full employment? Should we spend more on education? Should we cut your taxes? The answer to each of the above is, “Well, sure!” But note that the questions are asked in a vacuum, as if the object of a respondent’s desire could be had for free, without consequences. Pollsters routinely ask if people would like something unobtainable - guaranteed employment, for example - and politicians take the wistful answers as holy writ. Someone opposed to a guaranteed employment scheme can expect to be accused of supporting joblessness or hating the poor, at which point the mud would fly on both sides - all because of a poll question based on an idiotic assumption. Dumb questions beget dumb debate. In short, media organizations have been seduced by process, conflict and polling stories, and along the way have sacrificed the tradition of looking for creative ways to understand and explain the world. They have become hostages to the easy and shallow stuff and strangers to stories that touch people’s hearts and characterize their actual lives. Indeed, journalists seem to have developed an elitist contempt for the daily concerns of viewers, listeners and readers - and the public has noticed. This explains the across-the-board slippage in newspaper circulation, and viewership of broadcast and cable news.”
Ya but his drinks are getting stronger and he’s not really asking the guy next to him any more. He is just short of taking the guys wallet.
Unless Romney's numbers are in the 30s. Think about it 75% of this forum either has little enthusiasm for or is openly hostile to Romney. Extrapolate that out over the conservative landscape. Also, Obama's attacks are highly negative, easily rebutted but brilliant and effective. They distract from every effort of Romney to talk the economy, and they create an uneraseable negative image of Romney as a cad. I've said before that Obama's people are following old time Chicago politics, but using Marshall McLuhan's media theories of the medium being far more important than the message. Whatever the objective reality, Obama's ads and the screeds of Axelrod and Reid leave an imprint on the voter. And no one ever went broke betting against the intelligence of the American voter. Right now,IMO it's Rasmussen's poll that's the outlier, and I don't see the trend changing.
I wouldn’t worry yet. There are several big indicators that the polls showing Obama on top have bad samples however to be honest its very hard to get good samples because the number of people who are participating in polls is a shrinking group. I for one do not believe Romney is running nearly as strong as he should or could be. There have been several polls where both he and Obama are under 40% in the same poll.
That aside when you see polls that give Democrats an advantage that equals or exceeds 2008 you should be able to sleep easy knowing that just isn’t going to happen.
I think the MO primary results and the WI recall results should help put you at ease. Both indicate a really animated conservative base. Democrat turnout was really poor in MO and 7% of those who voted in the Democrat governor primary did not vote for McCaskill. I’d be wary of national polling of RV. There are other indicators with Obama having lost huge ground even in deep blue states like CT where he won by 23 points 2008 and recent polls showing him leading Romney by only 8 points.
Romney will have to try really hard to lose but the past few days haven’t encouraged me with his non support for Chikfila, supporting gay scoutmasters, and defending Romneycare but the key thing that we ultimately make a different I believe is Romney’s VP pick. He picks wrong and it could give Obama a life line but even that I doubt. Obama is so far gone I believe its going to be hard for Romney to lose.
Liberals are notorious racists.
If obama isn't doing anything for them, he's just another "black person."
[This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!]
Chicken little much? It is far from over. We haven’t even had the conventions yet. If the election were held today, I think Obama would lose.
I think you have to compete in 10 events, not train for 10 years.
Take out the 7%-9% Democrat oversampling bias in the Fox and CNN polls, and they then come more into line with Ras. Also keep in mind that Ras polls likely voters; the other two do not. So unless you account for these discrepancies, comparing Fox or CNN polls to Ras is apples and oranges.
” CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW”
And have been, and will continue to do so. Polls these days are mostly propaganda.
I take all polls between Memorial day and Labor day with more than a grain of salt because people with jobs and families tend to go away on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Or at least spend weekends at the beach or in the mountains. Since the economy is not in quite as bad shape as it was a couple of years ago, people with a few dollars to spend might be just a little more inclined to take the kids on vacation than they were in 2010.
So it's very encouraging that Rasmussen's polling has shown Romney ahead by 4 in mid-week polling. Today's poll, for example, reflects a 3-day average of numbers obtained on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. Note also that Gallup has Obama +2, on a 7 day rolling average of registered, not likely voters. IMO, they're still undercounting Republicans by polling registered voters, though. Gallup has been polling since FDR, so I'd weigh this more than the outfits that Fox, WSJ and the networks use.
After Labor day, the vacationers should come back home and will be available to be polled, so the Republican/conservative numbers should improve. By election time, the pollsters should all show whatever Rasmussen trend shows, so they won't look like complete idiots when they hawk their polling for the next cycle. Really, Democrats do not outnumber Republicans by 9% of likely voters, and any poll that concludes it is worthless.
>> Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.
This poll doesn’t make me any more nervous than I already am. :-)
It does make me laugh, though. Barky had a *very* good year in 2008, and in the final tally he didn’t score +9 over a pathetic McCain.
With all the water under the bridge, there is no possible way the big O is that far ahead.
The churches who supported his "for the sake of the poor and needy" crap in 2008 aren't going to be as friendly this time. He's forcing them, by dictate, to go against their conscience.
Dear God, how I miss Tony Snow!
Do you have any idea of what Tony would say to all these FReepers who willingly help Obama?
Your citing him is wonderful. Thank You!
follow Rasmussen AND Gallup tracking polls together. Together they were right on the money in 2004 and 2004
Smell that? Smells like desperation....
Rasmussen is the only polling I would pay any attention too. The news stations polls are just a way to make a quick and cheap story to advance their agendas. Rasmussen polls day in and day out, so I think their results are more trustworthy.
A CT state poll had Obama winning by 7, in a state he won by 20+ in 08. That same poll showed ROMNEY up significantly among independents . . . in CT!!
A Northern VA poll had Zero winning by two in that part of the state. But in 08, he won that part of the state by 23. If he only wins that by 2, he'll lose VA solidly.
An AARP poll of seniors in FL two days ago had them favoring ROMNEY. Huh? If seniors in FL are going Romney---a key Dem group---the Obama is toast there.
I think Ras is right, and has been consistently showing Romney with a 2-5 point lead.
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