Posted on 08/10/2012 7:22:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Don't focus on the topline numbers since it's hard to gauge how reliable they are. The Fox poll has O leading 49/40 based on a sample of D+9; last month he led 45/41 with a sample of just D+4. As for CNN, they've got Obama up 52/45 but provide no partisan breakdown with which to judge the sample.
What to do, then? Let's focus on the indies. CNN:
The margin of error increases for a subsample, as you can see, but that's a lot of cushion for the Unicorn Prince. No mystery where it's coming from, either: According to CNN, 52 percent of indies have an unfavorable view of Romney now compared to just 40 percent who had one in May. Fox sees a similar overall margin:
Lots of undecideds there, obviously, but the trendlines in Romney's favorables aren’t encouraging after a solid month of Bain-mania. CNN's and Fox's numbers, respectively:
Amazingly, The One's not paying much of a price yet for negativity. When asked if Romney has attacked Obama unfairly, the response is 44/50 between "has" and "has not." Obama's numbers are almost identical at 45/49, suggesting that perceptions on this question are still breaking along predictable party lines. Maybe that’ll change in the next week or two; this poll was conducted over the last few days, before the sleaze-tastic steelworker ad really started buzzing.
I don’t like the looks of either of these numbers, though:
Of the last four elections, only Clinton in 1996 had more lopsided numbers on that last question. (On the other hand, by a margin of 52/37, voters expected Gore to defeat Bush as of mid-September 2000.) Here’s the key question: Given that Romney and the constellation of conservative Super PACs have yet to really unload on O, there’s obviously going to be some movement in his numbers down the line just as there’s been movement in Romney’s numbers now after the Bain attacks. But how much? The two sides aren’t similarly situated; Romney’s an unknown quantity for most while Obama’s been the most famous man on the planet for four years. Not only does that make it harder for the GOP to define him than it was for him to define Mitt, but it gives O a much simpler task with regard to the shrinking pool of undecideds. Those people are already wary of reelecting him (that’s why they’re undecided), so they’re essentially Romney persuadables. Romney needs to persuade them, but all Obama needs to do is keep Romney on the defensive and keep the campaign dumb and nasty so that those persuadables stop caring and stay home. It’s incredibly cynical but it’s his best bet. If you believe these two polls, it’s working okay so far.
To all the hand-wringing panty wetters on this forum:
1. It’s early August.
2. There have been no conventions yet.
3. Stop being a bunch of vajayjays.
Agreed.
What the One has thrown at Miff has only been kids play to this point. We have not yet seen the Granny over the cliff or starving women and children attack ads. Lies repeated often enough become perceived as the truth, and Miff nor the GOPe have the brass ones to fight back against the Chicago thugs.
With assistance from the MSM, the Rats are poised to increase their EV margin, increase their count in the Senate, and retake the House.
Miff was relying on not being Obama as being enough to win. The polls, flawed as they maybe, are starting to show otherwise.
Negative campaigning works, and yes, so does outright lying, especially when a complacent MSM wont call you on it.
That’s wise, IMO.
Anyone who believes these polls is delusional.
Short version. First, it’s the economy stupid. Second, a voting booth is vastly different than a random phone survey, so I think polls (all of them) overstate Obama’s support by 5-10% because they don’t want to appear “RACIST”. Last, I refuse to believe a majority of American’s are stupid. Obama’s many failures have touched every voter (directly or indirectly) and he will be held to account.
Depressing. I know this election cycle is a roller coaster ride, but I’m not feeling confident at all.
The tribe of blood-libelers and self-loathers who control our media (Fox *not* excepted) are just making sure of a win-win for their side.
As if Mittens isn’t leftist enough, fabricated data such as this which show that so-called “moderates” and “independents” are moving away from Romney will cause him to do what? Move *further* to the left (is that even possible?).
On the bright side, the fact that they need to heavily oversample Democrats or add other “special sauce” to the formula in order to get the numbers they want reflects what we all know anyway: that their beloved President is highly unpopular with everyone aside from the most deluded plantation slaves.
i pray everyday that obama get defeated and booted out of office. I can’t take another 4 yrs of this
Amen, brother.
Do you really think electing someone just as morally corrupt as Romney will prevent God from judging the nation?
what do you think will happen in November?
What do I think will happen in November?
What I think is the MSM(Left) has way too much power to influence the weak minded people in the middle.
If Romney does win, I will consider it quite a feat. He has so many powerful forces pulling against him. Am I optimistic, NO, but I’m hoping for a Republican win in the House, Senate, and Presidency.
I’ll vote for Romney because:
“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.