Posted on 08/10/2012 7:22:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Don't focus on the topline numbers since it's hard to gauge how reliable they are. The Fox poll has O leading 49/40 based on a sample of D+9; last month he led 45/41 with a sample of just D+4. As for CNN, they've got Obama up 52/45 but provide no partisan breakdown with which to judge the sample.
What to do, then? Let's focus on the indies. CNN:
The margin of error increases for a subsample, as you can see, but that's a lot of cushion for the Unicorn Prince. No mystery where it's coming from, either: According to CNN, 52 percent of indies have an unfavorable view of Romney now compared to just 40 percent who had one in May. Fox sees a similar overall margin:
Lots of undecideds there, obviously, but the trendlines in Romney's favorables aren’t encouraging after a solid month of Bain-mania. CNN's and Fox's numbers, respectively:
Amazingly, The One's not paying much of a price yet for negativity. When asked if Romney has attacked Obama unfairly, the response is 44/50 between "has" and "has not." Obama's numbers are almost identical at 45/49, suggesting that perceptions on this question are still breaking along predictable party lines. Maybe that’ll change in the next week or two; this poll was conducted over the last few days, before the sleaze-tastic steelworker ad really started buzzing.
I don’t like the looks of either of these numbers, though:
Of the last four elections, only Clinton in 1996 had more lopsided numbers on that last question. (On the other hand, by a margin of 52/37, voters expected Gore to defeat Bush as of mid-September 2000.) Here’s the key question: Given that Romney and the constellation of conservative Super PACs have yet to really unload on O, there’s obviously going to be some movement in his numbers down the line just as there’s been movement in Romney’s numbers now after the Bain attacks. But how much? The two sides aren’t similarly situated; Romney’s an unknown quantity for most while Obama’s been the most famous man on the planet for four years. Not only does that make it harder for the GOP to define him than it was for him to define Mitt, but it gives O a much simpler task with regard to the shrinking pool of undecideds. Those people are already wary of reelecting him (that’s why they’re undecided), so they’re essentially Romney persuadables. Romney needs to persuade them, but all Obama needs to do is keep Romney on the defensive and keep the campaign dumb and nasty so that those persuadables stop caring and stay home. It’s incredibly cynical but it’s his best bet. If you believe these two polls, it’s working okay so far.
“Romney is just a lousy candidate but it’s what the RINOs wanted. Hope they’re happy.”
They are. Their real target has been destroyed - a conservative resurgence.
RE: meanwhile for the second day in a row Rasmussen has Romney beating Obama 47% to 43%....
So, who to believe, Rasmussen or CNN/Fox News? and why?
I will be voting against Obama as well.
Conservatives have caller ID. I see calls all the time from “pollsters” but I don’t answer. Liberals are lonely and will talk to anyone who will hear their opinion.
LOL! Whatever. Why don’t they just claim Obama is leading in every category, ESPECIALLY the Tea Party, by eleventy-skadillion percent?
The Kenyan will lose in a landslide.
RE: The Kenyan will lose in a landslide.
I’d like to learn your reasons for believing that...
Twas polled on ye old landline.
It was an automated polling. Recorded questions, then press 1, 2, etc.
These were the questions:
1. Republican, Democrat, Independent or Other
2. Male, Female, Transgendered, etc.
3. Approve/Disapprove of B.O. job as POTUS
4. Did you vote in 2008?
5. Are you gonna vote in November?
6. Obama, Romney, Other, undecided
7. Lean toward Obama, Romney, neither
8. Age group 18-25,26-35,36-49, etc.....
They identified the polling group, but I didn’t recognize the name, figured it was a cover anyway............
Rasmussen polls likely voters. These polls were registered voters
this was predicted..... the polls would magically start getting better for this guy...
I find this very hard to believe. What exactly has changed? Romney’s tax returns ? come on...
I am demoralized , but I have been for some time. With 1 out of every 3 people in this country on the public dole, it’s hard not to be..
Watching Ken Burns The WAR (WWII) again, the last couple of days, reminded me how far we have fallen and how fat and lazy 1/2 of Americans are.
I’ll vote, but I’m plenty tired of 1/2 of the people in this country... Honestly, I don’t want to be around them, and I have stopped engaging in conversation with them about these matters. Why? Because we don’t even agree on truth and the sky being blue... Without truth and an agreement on facts, it’s impossible.
Day after day, I read on Facebook how happy my FB friends are with their “free” healthcare... And this damn law hasn’t even truly kicked in yet.. Starting in 2014, healthcare in the cities will be a complete mess, with lines at doctors office of 1 to 2 hours and waiting for appts for 6 months... Me and Mr illegal Jose, will be on the same footing.. equals, in regards to this....He gets his freebie, and I have worked hard to maintain my crappy job in order to have healthcare.
arrhhh!!!!!
we are Sweden, Greece... France...
My wife just hangs up. Being in a swing state, Florida, we get polled more often than others. Sometimes multiple times a day.............
I meant which pollster polled you?
CNN declined to give a D/R breakdown.
So why are we even discussing these?
Americans are a bit mushminded if they are swayed by the barrage of negative Obama ads.
Romney can’t spend money he’s raised for his campaign because he isn’t the official nominee yet, so he’s being outspent something like 3 to 1 by Obama. After the convention, Romney may have the money advantage.
Romney’s only defensive publicity is money spent by the Republican PACs. Now we see why Obama was so upset by the recent SC decision. If they were cut off, he’d have had a couple of extra months of nearly 100% negative coverage to smear Romney so badly it would be nearly impossible to recover, regardless of his actual campaign.
Independents—mush headed fools
Unfortunately the election depends on who best can appeal to these idiots
And when the disaster strikes these boobs will have no idea what caused it
I think this election is a bellwether. It will indicate if, I think it was William F. Buckley, said in reference to the USSR, but socialism in general (and I paraphrase);
-The free nations will stumble and trip making mistakes, but getting up and brushing themselves off and pressing on, but Socialism/Marxism, when it falls, it falls and fails completely, decisively and absolutely.
Either we will brush off this mistake (Obama), hopefully learning from it, or we will continue down to failure and collapse.
You get what you sample. Most Americans like dogs.
But if I sampled a poll +9 Cats over Humans, that would probably not be the poll result. This is so colossally stupid I cannot even fathom it.
I don’t remember the name, it didn’t ring a bell at the time. It was at the very end of the questions, and went by very fast like the disclaimers they read on television commercials.......
I have long said that the very moment that Romney becomes the nominee, Obama wins another 4 years.
I want to be wrong, not because I like Romney—I can’t stand him, but because I hate Obama’s guts.
I would have voted for Newt Gingrich.
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