Posted on 08/10/2012 7:22:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Don't focus on the topline numbers since it's hard to gauge how reliable they are. The Fox poll has O leading 49/40 based on a sample of D+9; last month he led 45/41 with a sample of just D+4. As for CNN, they've got Obama up 52/45 but provide no partisan breakdown with which to judge the sample.
What to do, then? Let's focus on the indies. CNN:
The margin of error increases for a subsample, as you can see, but that's a lot of cushion for the Unicorn Prince. No mystery where it's coming from, either: According to CNN, 52 percent of indies have an unfavorable view of Romney now compared to just 40 percent who had one in May. Fox sees a similar overall margin:
Lots of undecideds there, obviously, but the trendlines in Romney's favorables aren’t encouraging after a solid month of Bain-mania. CNN's and Fox's numbers, respectively:
Amazingly, The One's not paying much of a price yet for negativity. When asked if Romney has attacked Obama unfairly, the response is 44/50 between "has" and "has not." Obama's numbers are almost identical at 45/49, suggesting that perceptions on this question are still breaking along predictable party lines. Maybe that’ll change in the next week or two; this poll was conducted over the last few days, before the sleaze-tastic steelworker ad really started buzzing.
I don’t like the looks of either of these numbers, though:
Of the last four elections, only Clinton in 1996 had more lopsided numbers on that last question. (On the other hand, by a margin of 52/37, voters expected Gore to defeat Bush as of mid-September 2000.) Here’s the key question: Given that Romney and the constellation of conservative Super PACs have yet to really unload on O, there’s obviously going to be some movement in his numbers down the line just as there’s been movement in Romney’s numbers now after the Bain attacks. But how much? The two sides aren’t similarly situated; Romney’s an unknown quantity for most while Obama’s been the most famous man on the planet for four years. Not only does that make it harder for the GOP to define him than it was for him to define Mitt, but it gives O a much simpler task with regard to the shrinking pool of undecideds. Those people are already wary of reelecting him (that’s why they’re undecided), so they’re essentially Romney persuadables. Romney needs to persuade them, but all Obama needs to do is keep Romney on the defensive and keep the campaign dumb and nasty so that those persuadables stop caring and stay home. It’s incredibly cynical but it’s his best bet. If you believe these two polls, it’s working okay so far.
America is like a woman who has been battered by a mean husband. She keeps giving in to the promises that things will CHANGE.
Americans probably feel that if Romney cannot fight for himself in a campaign against Obama then how could he as President be able to fight for us Americans and our economy against the democrats?
#8 is very scary.
I was actually polled on Tuesday evening.
I LIED ..........
Mainly because I want Obozo to keep on doing what he has been doing, that is keep on with the Left wing socialism rhetoric to keep his base fired up .......or at least awake........
Who were you polled by?
Romney is just a lousy candidate but it’s what the RINOs wanted. Hope they’re happy.
On the other hand, by a margin of 52/37, voters expected Gore to defeat Bush as of mid-September 2000.)
Because conservatives don’t answer the phone or stop for surveys. We do vote.
When Romney had the GOP nomination pinned down, many FReepers predicted that the election would be Obama’s to lose. Well, the predictions were accurate. It’s Bob Dole time in America . . . again.
These were polls of registered voters not likely voters
Mainly because I want Obozo to keep on doing what he has been doing, that is keep on with the Left wing socialism rhetoric to keep his base fired up .......or at least awake........
Makes sense from my standpoint but we stand from a different standpoint than most who are polled. You are politically engaged, more or less an activist at some point (posting and commenting in political forums is a form of activism).
At some point the BIG donors put their money where the polls point. A double edged sword. :)
You would be surprised how many Americans that are polled still make it a point to turn on cBS news at 6:30pm to get the stories of the day and take it as 100% truth.
By the way, I have a question for you. You said you got polled. I'm curious to know, did they call you on your cell phone or a landline?
meanwhile for the second day in a row Rasmussen has Romney beating Obama 47% to 43%....
Some pundits are now claiming Romney has seen his peak already.
Yeah, but are we going to vote for Mitt Romney. (Disclaimer - unless he complete bolluxes it up, I am, but just to vote against Obama.)
I received a poll call the other day. One of the first questions was, “Do you have a political blog, or do you participate on political blogs or forums?” I answered yes.
“Thank you!” :::click:::
the media also thought Kerry was going to also beat Bush
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