Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight-- Aug. 9: National Polls Shouldn't Panic Romney

New York Times ^ | August 10, 2012 | Nate Silver

[hcmama]

One problem is that the trend toward Mr. Obama in national polls has hardly been uniform. The Gallup national tracking poll has shown a very flat race. And Rasmussen Reports had a swing toward Mr. Romney in its release on Thursday, with his pulling ahead by four points in its survey. Weekly tracking polls from Public Policy Polling and YouGov have also not shown especially good numbers for Mr. Obama lately. If there had really been a shift in the race of the magnitude that the Real Clear Politics average implies — it has Mr. Obama gaining three points on Mr. Romney over roughly the past 10 days — we probably wouldn’t be seeing these contradictory data points.

[hcmama]

Yeah, it's Pravda on the Hudson and all, and Nate is an avowed and open lefty, but this represents overall a pretty fair and thoughtful analysis.

[Diogenesis]

Why is not Obama losing by 80%?

Because Mr. RomneyCARE represents ... RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE.
and because he won’t attack the DNC.

[hcmama]

Anyone else care to respond?

[WashingtonSource]

The intensity of the bile in the propaganda has been increased. Credibility is completely gone. Nate missed his calling as a stand-up comic.

[Perdogg]

The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy.

[bkepley]

Why is not Obama losing by 80%?

Gee I dunno. Could it be because there are about 72 million Democrats in the US?

[9422WMR]

“The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama.”
Are you looking at the same fox news website I am?
They are saying this:
FOX NEWS POLL: Obama’s Lead Grows as Romney’s Support Slips

[hcmama]

I think that is Silver’s point: none of these trends are reflected in the tracking polls, not even in Democrat PeePeePee poll straight out of Chapel Hill.

[randita]

Silver does a fair analysis.

[nhwingut]

Think samples have anything to do with poll results?

Poll Result Sample
Gallup Obama +2 Dem +3.5
Rasmussen Romney +4 Dem +1.5
CBS/NYT Romney +1 Dem +4

CNN Obama +7 Dem +13
FOX Obama +9 Dem +9
Reuters Obama +7 Dem +11
Pew Obama +10 Dem +19
NBC Obama +6 Dem +11

[ScottinVA]

The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy

What was the sampling data (R vs D vs I) for the Fox poll? I can't get at that link at work. Thanks.

[GailA]

Because true Patriots, Conservatives, Evangelicals, and Constitution lovers see RINO myth romney for what he is a SOCIALIST! We have read his record as governor, and it reads DEMORAT LIBERAL, not Conservative. We do NOT want more of the same, we want REAL CHANGE. And you won't get that with the Myth the RINO.

[bray]

Plus we know how accurate the Obamedia polls have been the last few elections. They never pick up the Tea Party influence.

Pray for America

[randita]

Most of the polls giving Obama a large lead are of registered voters.

Rasmussen has consistently shown Romney up by several points for a month or two. Gallup has consistently shown a tight race.

Network pundits, citing their polls, claim that Obama’s negative ads are working. But this hasn’t been reflected yet in Rasmussen or Gallup.

The last Fox poll showed a significant shift of independents away from Romney, but if they changed their minds once, they can change them again.

I think Romney is okay with where he is now or else he would be much more aggressive in his demeanor and ads. No need to waste the heavy artillery when no one is paying attention yet.

Romney will get a bounce with his VP announcement and also with the convention. Then he’ll begin the onslaught and I think it will be relentless.

[ScottinVA]

Disregard my previous.

Thanks for the breakdown, nhwingut.

[MEGoody]

I recall that the polls showed John Kerry ahead of Bush. The pollsters were even claiming the exit polls showed Kerry ahead.

I recall that Sharon Angle was also showing ahead of the polls in her race against Harry Reid.

I tend to take polls with a grain of salt.

Having said that, I do realize that an awful lot of the American people don't have the intelligence and discernment that God gave a rock.

[hcmama]

Silver states Romney does at least two points better on likely voter polls. He also stated August polls were really no more accurate than those in early July.

[mongo141]

“Yeah, it's Pravda on the Hudson and all, and Nate is an avowed and open lefty, but this represents overall a pretty fair and thoughtful analysis.”

___

True as I see it. Romney had better get mean and tough real quick. If he doesn't start operating back alley dirty we are screwed. The “moral high ground” won't win any fights against Socialists and other assorted vermin.

[hcmama]

Romney does seem to take the view that no one is paying attention now. During the primaries he absorbed a lot of body blows before relentlessly unleashing on opponents. Whatever one thinks of his tactics in the primaries, I hope he rains down a veritable sh&&storm on Reverend Wright’s altar boy.

[WaterWeWaitinFor]

Yes, Romney BETTER start getting into the race here. Any time, Mittens......... waiting......... waiting......

And he better dump that incompetant Andrea Saul, so called moronic spokesperson that answered “If Soptic lived in Mass. he’d have Romney care”..... AAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! What a buffoon. You think THAT guy will dump Obamacare?

At this point, I see Romney bringing a feather to a gun fight.