The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy.
“The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama.”
Are you looking at the same fox news website I am?
They are saying this:
FOX NEWS POLL: Obama’s Lead Grows as Romney’s Support Slips
I think that is Silver’s point: none of these trends are reflected in the tracking polls, not even in Democrat PeePeePee poll straight out of Chapel Hill.
What was the sampling data (R vs D vs I) for the Fox poll? I can't get at that link at work. Thanks.
“The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy.”
I don’t understand why polls would do this. This isn’t 2008! There simply aren’t 9% more Democrats than Republicans right now. That’s a ridiculously unrealistic population to be using.
Just by common sense, if Obama’s Job Approval is around 47%, he cannot possibly be up by 9 points. GWB’s number was 49.5, which translated to a lead of 3.5 nationally. So Obama might be ahead by 1 point, assuming a similar population to what we had in 2004.
However, I think in reality, there is more GOP enthusiasm vs. Dem. enthusiasm now than in 2004, not because Romney is any more liked than Kerry, but the GOP dissatisfaction with Obama is stronger than the Dem dissatisfaction against Bush was, at that time. (The dissatisfaction with Bush later became much stronger, but in 2004 was not so strong, except for the really firm Dems, who, of course, never liked him).
Plus I think Bush’s support among his base was stronger than Obama’s, because it was a broader base. In the Midwest, there was a ton of voters that voted for Bush because they were anti gay marriage and pro-life, for example. I don’t think there is a similar level of support for Obama across his base. They seem less engaged.
So a key ingredient to guessing what will happen in November is getting the population right as to who actually votes. It surely will not consist of 9% more Democrats than Republicans.