The Coming Obama Landslide?

thedailybeast ^ | Aug. 4 | Michael Tomasky

[Alistair Stratford IV]

The Coming Obama Landslide?

Liberals don’t want to jinx it. It terrifies the right. And the press would prefer a nail-biter. But the fact is that finding Romney’s path to victory is getting harder every day.

There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania. There has been good reason for Democrats to sweat this state. True, Obama won it handily in 2008, by 10 points. But it’s a state that is older and whiter and more working-class than most of America. Obama benefited from all the unique circumstances of 2008 that helped him across the country, but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.

But the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average. Democratic voter registration has held its own.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“This is why even a state as overtly conservative as Texas is today, is going to change in the future. The Hispanic babies and children are “already there”. They have no “voice” now, but just wait a generation — it will grow louder.”

One would have thought that with all the babies born in the USSR being indoctrinated from an early age in the glory of communism, and the dying out of the older generations that knew better, that there would be no way the USSR would cease to exist. That reasoning was obviously wrong.

I don’t think we know for sure what is going to happen, but I do know that if you want things to turn out differently you have to work to make that happen. If they want to have a breeding war, then maybe that’s what they should get. If I had it to do over I would have tried to have at least two or three more children. It would have been a blessing, and I would know that at least they had each other.

[justiceseeker93]

Michael Tomasky is well known as a leftist mouthpiece, who appeared frequently in New York Magazine.

Hey, Michael, George W. Bush won two elections without winning Pennsylvania. The fact is that it's not that Romney can't win without Pennsylvania, it's that Obama can't win without it! Let's not turn things upside down.

[justiceseeker93]

Last election, there were Obama offices all over the barrios and black neighborhoods. Stickers & posters all over the place. Haven’t seen quite so many this time around.

You could have mentioned those menacing New Black Panthers standing on "patrol" in front of the entrance of the Philadelphia polling place, who knew they weren't going to be prosecuted by the O regime to be.

[comebacknewt]

Agree and have been saying the same. Demographics make it highly unlikely that a GOP candidate will win a Presidential landslide victory ever again.

I think Romney still has a chance to win a close one in 2012. There may even be a slight hope for a 2016 win. After that, I just don’t see it.

The GOP will become nothing more than a protest party and continue to shrink in both size and influence.

[Cheerio]

In Pennsy, it’s the cities vs. everywhere else.

True in MN and CA also. I would bet that most large urban areas are true BLUE.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Why would the bitter, gun-clinging, bible-clutching white devil want to vote against Ubama?

It makes no sense.

Heh.

[Thunder90]

The libs were saying the same thing in Wisconsin in March and April, running around saying that Kathleen Falk or Tom Barrett would win with a margin larger than Walker won by.

[jjotto]

Actually, Romney’s GOP will purge conservatives and become a socialist-lite party, like the Christian Democrat parties of Europe.

[Apparatchik]

Sorry, left out the </sarc>

[Hotlanta Mike]

Maybe Romney’s “I’m not Obama” campaign is not working in the rust belt.

---

Romney appears to be leading in MI and WI...MI is so corroded it is beyond being considered “rust belt”.

[nathanbedford]

On July 6, I published the following reply which is congruent with much of what you had to say in yours:

The threat represented by Obama that you so accurately outlined will not go away even if Obama is defeated in this election.

The current political situation in this country is such that we are likely to win this election but only because of Obama overreach and the condition of the economy. Next time around, the demographics are likely to prevail over any conservative message. America is becoming more like California in which common sense and decency are swept aside by a tsunami of immigrants/emigrants. Watch Texas in the upcoming cycles and see if it follows New Mexico.

Therefore, it is insufficient for the survival of a constitutional republic merely to defeat Obama in this election, he must be repudiated. If Romney wins it will be his responsibility as President of the United States to the rule of law to prosecute every misdeed of the Obama administration unto the the limits of the law. It is obvious that Romney's campaign will not do what Newt Gingrich would have done, characterize Obama for what he is, a Marxist and a corrupt Chicago style pol and, I concede, it is unlikely that his administration will vigorously prosecute Obama administration's crimes-but it must be done.

In this respect our button-down candidate is reminiscent of George Bush who not only declined to expose Clinton for what he was but actively sought to rehabilitate Clinton and, unbelievably, Teddy Kennedy. It is one thing to accord a candidate latitude in fighting an election and quite another to condone the kind of pandering to leftists that has been conducted by the Bushes once they have the power of the presidency and the control of the Attorney General. Instead, George W. Bush painted himself into such a corner that he felt compelled to appoint a special prosecutor in the Valerie Plame affair, a scandal about nothing. Compare that with the behavior of Obama in the far more serious case of leaking our state secrets.

We see the same phenomenon occurring now in the attempts to salvage the reputation among conservatives of Chief Justice John Roberts. Those who worship the false god of comity do so at the expense of the Constitution, the rule of law, and even the survival of the Republic. The worship is predicated on false assumptions. For example, it is the belief that there is a legitimate intellectual exercise now going on in United States Supreme Court. Nothing could be further from the truth. The four liberal justices have no intention whatsoever of permitting the Constitution to interfere with their agenda. It is not a legitimate institution if four out of nine Justices are conducting a sham.

It is similarly not a decent exercise in representative democracy when the outcome is skewed because of race. There is no decent society if we descend into tribalism. Obama clearly is sacrificing the unity of the country to the advancement of his own narcissism and the advancement of his Marxist worldview. If Obama loses and Romney has not made the case that both Obama and his worldview are illegitimate, not just unpopular, the virus he represents will erupt again only to feed on an even more favorable demographic body. Marxism is a virus which, like the Hun, is either at our feet or at our throat and it will emerge and threaten our very existence as a Republic the next time the Democrats find an attractive candidate.

I said months before the debacle of the 2008 election that Barack Obama had to be "morally" destroyed or John McCain simply had no chance whatsoever to win the election. That was true. I repeat, Obama and Obamaism must be morally destroyed for the very survival of the country.

[nolongerademocrat]

Democrats are apparently indulging in recreational pharmaceuticals in an effort to cope with what they know is coming.

[comebacknewt]

Could be. If the RAT Party fractures into the Greens, the Minorities, and Labor at the same time, it could get interesting.

GOP / Tea Party on the Right.

Greens / Labor / Minorities on the Left.

[FastCoyote]

I wrote “Surviving Civil War II” that addresses some of your scenario. Liberals can’t count on the army for a civil war, so they fight with proxy armies of illegals, unions, anarchists. http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php

[jeannineinsd]

Until Romney starts polling consistent leads in swing states (enough to carry 270+ EVs), do not be too dismissive of the analysis. Preaching to the choir will not get Romney elected POTUS.

I agree. I remember 2008, all the freepers dismissing the polls, saying Obama couldn't possibly win. Well, in 2008 the pollsters were correct.

[SoFloFreeper]

LOL.

Michael Tomasky, desperately wanting to be King of the Knee Pads.

[justiceseeker93]

I’ve previously predicted in several posts here that because of demographic changes, it will become increasingly difficult for Republican candidates to “build” an electoral college majority in the decades ahead. The main problem is that the left starts an election cycle with a larger “electoral vote base” than do the Republicans.

As demographics have changed, and as the older cohort of Euro-American voters dies off, states that may once have been “battleground” states topple over to become “true blue” states, perhaps never to “vote red” again. Of course, within such states there may be conservative enclaves (California comes to mind, and the vast majority of Illinois is far more conservative than the Chicago area), but they are overwhelmed electorally by the huge number of “blue voters” who drown out any political voice the right has.

You neglect to mention one very important population trend that cuts in favor of the GOP: the shift of electoral votes toward the "red states" in general, led by solidly "red" Texas. Remember that before the 2010 Census was conducted, many thought that it would be rigged to help the 'Rats increase their power. But the net result is that states that voted for McCain in 2008 will have more total electoral votes in 2012 and states that voted for Zero will have less. Texas alone, IIRC, is getting four more House seats and this means four more electoral votes. So advantage GOP there.

Texas' Hispanic population is still along way from the "tipping point," as the state is now predominantly Republican. And your assumption that Hispanics will continue to vote as sharply Democrat in the future as they do now may not pan out, as other ethnic groups have become less addicted to the 'Rats with the passage of time and more assimilation.

[CitizenM]

And here’s an inconvenient truth for the beasties: Virtually no one who voted for someone not named Obama last time around is going to switch and vote for him this time. On the other hand, many of those who voted for Obama in 2008 ARE switching.

You said it succinctly and correctly. That is the main concern of the Dems. That is why Obama is pandering to illegal aliens, gays, and high schoolers who will vote for the first time. That is why he tries to scare women and seniors so they vote with their emotions and not with their brains. He needs and must have their votes. So many who ignored his obvious lack of qualifications and his socialistic agenda and who were gullible enough to fall for his rhetoric and lies have abandoned him. After almost four years they have finally seen that the exposed, real Obama hates America, our Capitalistic society, and our Christian/Jewish beliefs and values, and the entrepreneurial spirit of our business culture.

And what is even worse for him, the far left voters/progressives are disillusioned because he was not the total reformer they thought they could count on who would deliver what they wanted. Oh, he has worked hard at developing some "Utopian" government-controlled society and attempted to accomplish the demise of our country. But, the will and awareness of freedom loving Americans is stronger than the Left realized, even stronger now that we have been challenged.

All in all, anyone with a thinking mind who gave him a chance based on whatever reason, has realized that after four years of on-the-job training Obama hasn't performed to their expectations and shows no signs of improvement.

The experiment with Obama is over. The result: he has proved the truth - you cannot put an immature, inexperienced, unqualified person in a leadership position - it never works for anyone. The country is fed up with his whining, lying, excuses, blame games, slouching, disconnected and elitist attitude. This time people are really "hoping for a change" in the Oval Office come November.

[SoFloFreeper]

This economic model predicts Obamugabe will lose in a near landslide. Dots are given to compare with other Presidential elections.

Source: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/08/economic-forecasting-model-predicts-obama-will-lose-in-near-landslide/

This model missed in 1996 and 2000.

[William Tell]

pieceofthepuzzle said: "One would have thought that with all the babies born in the USSR being indoctrinated from an early age in the glory of communism, and the dying out of the older generations that knew better, that there would be no way the USSR would cease to exist. "

Yours is the point I wished to make.

There is more difference between the two political parties than just the spelling of their names.

Socialism has just about run its course throughout Europe and the U.S. The socialists have just about run out of "other people's money"; those "other people" consisting of generations yet unborn.

Unfortunately, we will have to endure literal starvation before many people come to their senses. We will have people standing in bread lines wondering why nobody is making any bread. The decline will continue until those in line starve to death or leave the line in order to go make bread, clinging to their guns in order to prevent others from stealing their bread.

I wish I could come up with a realistic scenario with less suffereing. I can't.