Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Swing states give Obama the edge
The Hill ^ | 07/30/2012 | Niall Stanage

Posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

President Obama has an overall edge in the 12 decisive battleground states that is measurably greater than his advantage in national polling.

The dynamic, which may reflect a combination of lower swing-state unemployment rates and demographic advantages for the president, is causing stirrings of unease among Republicans, even as they emphasize that it is important not to read too much into the state of the race right now.

“Obama is concentrating his considerable early resources and messaging in the swing states, and it’s had an impact,” said Mark McKinnon, who served as a media adviser for President George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns.

But McKinnon added that Republican candidate Mitt Romney was “raising and saving his money to ensure he won’t be out-punched in the final rounds.” The crucial battleground states number about a dozen: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Taking the polling averages used by Nate Silver in the New York Times, the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. Only 270 votes are needed to win the presidency.

Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.

By that measure, as of last Friday, he would win 8 of the 12 battlegrounds, for a total of 290 electoral votes.

Romney victories in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia leaves the Republican marooned on 248 electoral votes.

Strategists including Karl Rove have, in recent months, noted that Romney’s path to victory is challenging one in terms of the electoral map.

Now, Democrats are citing the same argument to justify guarded confidence.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bs; dnctalkingpoints; obama; obamapolls; polls; romney; swingstates; zogbyism
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-74 next last
To: SeekAndFind

what a load of Barbra Streisand


41 posted on 07/30/2012 3:59:45 PM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Don Corleone

“You can bet the ranch that the Democrats know the details of all the voting potential down to the precinct level. Its the Chicago way, the Daley way, the Alinsky way and for certain the Obama way. Again remember, its not who votes but who counts the votes that matters.”

Yep.

Just like they did in Wisconsin....Oh wait.


42 posted on 07/30/2012 4:01:38 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

Even in this bad economy, the “pain” felt by it is far less than previous years, because the handouts from the government have smashed records. People are getting used to those handouts and will resist attempts to roll them back.

That`s the huge disadvantage for Romney... he can`t control the narrative... 0bama can.


43 posted on 07/30/2012 4:03:26 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Leep
However,Obama could pick his nose and flick it at the camera. The MSM would report it as sheer genius.

thats the fecal fly’s job


44 posted on 07/30/2012 4:05:09 PM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: 3Fingas
I have no idea why the President maintains any support at all.

I do

Over half of the voting public are drooling imbeciles who the Founders never intended to enfranchise.

The Founders didn't put a right to vote in the Constitution for a reason.

A couple of amendments later, and presto, we are now enslaved by the Federal apparatus in DC.

Washingtonians put on a circus every election cycle fighting over which bunch of degenerate con men, thieves, and liars get to control and redistribute the money extorted from the productive class by the IRS.

45 posted on 07/30/2012 4:10:51 PM PDT by Rome2000 (WILLARD ROMNEY -- MORMON MELCHIDEZEK BISHOP -HIS FAMILY HAS AVOIDED MILITARY SERVICE FOR GENERATIONS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: cableguymn
late november is when the real polls start to come out for the public.

By late November it will all be over. Election day is November 6th.

46 posted on 07/30/2012 4:13:45 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

5 trillion buys a Lot of Votes,I am Afraid they are right


47 posted on 07/30/2012 4:14:09 PM PDT by ballplayer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
I'd like to see the polling samples they're using to get these numbers. My money says they're oversampling Dems... again.

FWIW, I don't think Obama believes these numbers either. Look at the way he's campaigning... does he act like a candidate who's confident that he's going to win?

48 posted on 07/30/2012 4:15:15 PM PDT by Random_User_250
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 3Fingas; xzins
I have no idea why the President maintains any support at all. His policies have been ruinous for most people.

80% of Americans still have jobs. Of the 20% who are unemployed, most of them are grateful to Obama for giving them all extended Unemployment, welfare, food stamps, free health care and promises of a continued gravy train of "free" benefits paid by the 80% who are working and the future earnings of our children and grandchildren.

The fact of the matter is that for most of the underemployed and unemployed, things have not really been that disasterous, not like it was in the 1930's. Obama's Trillion Dollar Deficits will buy him a lot of votes from people who appreciate getting something for nothing.

Never underestimate the ignorance of the average American Idol fan.

49 posted on 07/30/2012 4:15:28 PM PDT by P-Marlowe (There can be no Victory without a fight and no battle without wounds.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Alas Babylon!

see post 47


50 posted on 07/30/2012 4:23:52 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
According to the NYTs he’s going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history. Right.

Don't discount it just yet - this is President Kardashian we are talking about and he is running for the 10th season of American Idol.

Seriously we need a short civics test before anyone is allowed to cast a vote............he wins and America is toast.
51 posted on 07/30/2012 4:27:06 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Alas Babylon!

I fail... try post 19..

I think I’ll just lurk the rest of the night.


52 posted on 07/30/2012 4:27:06 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This crap by the msm is all a part of the mis-information campaign deliberately designed to demoralize conservatives and Republicans in general. Ignore the polls and continue the fight against zero, the greatest manifestation of pure evil we have ever seen in a US president.


53 posted on 07/30/2012 4:40:01 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: p. henry

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=pwL

This is the way the polls are leaning right - with Romney about 3% ahead of McCain’s yield in most states. We needed a candidate who could gain 5% and blew the chance to do so.


54 posted on 07/30/2012 4:48:44 PM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: P-Marlowe

Haven’t you heard? The unemployment rate is 8.2%...../sarc

Good points. But you and I know that this gravy train is running on fumes. Sooner or later our credit card will be pulled.


55 posted on 07/30/2012 4:52:45 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: Leep

Eeeewww!


56 posted on 07/30/2012 4:52:55 PM PDT by SuziQ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: LongWayHome

“Don’t buy into this crap. They are, in most cases, using polls that sample registered voters; not likely voters.”

I don’t know. On the one hand, Dem enthusiasm is way down, and ours is definitely UP. This is worth a lot. It’s very heartening to see the YouTube replays of 1980 election night, where the anchors were in tears wondering how this could happen, given that “the polls were running neck-and-neck that morning”.

I think fraud will be down, because the scrutiny, or at least the perception of scrutiny, is up. I would hate to be a Dem fraudster and then have a Republican President, House, and Senate. The next Attorney General might not be as...uhhh... “easygoing” as this one was. Those penalties are pretty harsh on paper.

I will say that people who don’t like Romney and plan on staying home have no business complaining about Obama after the election if he wins.


57 posted on 07/30/2012 5:33:41 PM PDT by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: cableguymn

I’m sorry! I failed to see that. Go ahead and keep posting; I’ll lurk!


58 posted on 07/30/2012 5:35:25 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]

To: The Antiyuppie

On every likey voter poll Romney has been up by as much as 5 points nation-wide. If I were Obama I would be more worried than Mitt at this point.


59 posted on 07/30/2012 5:40:28 PM PDT by LongWayHome
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 57 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
I don't know why you bother. Yours is the only post on here that even attempts to evidentially debunk this poll. But Freepers would rather come on these threads and wring their hands and wet the bed.

As for the rest of you -- first of all, none of you even questioned the inclusion of Pennsylvania as a swing state?

A state that hasn't gone GOP since 1988 -- 24 years without crossing over -- and it's a swing state because some douchebag from The Hill says so. Right.

60 posted on 07/30/2012 5:58:27 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-74 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson