Posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
President Obama has an overall edge in the 12 decisive battleground states that is measurably greater than his advantage in national polling.
The dynamic, which may reflect a combination of lower swing-state unemployment rates and demographic advantages for the president, is causing stirrings of unease among Republicans, even as they emphasize that it is important not to read too much into the state of the race right now.
“Obama is concentrating his considerable early resources and messaging in the swing states, and it’s had an impact,” said Mark McKinnon, who served as a media adviser for President George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns.
But McKinnon added that Republican candidate Mitt Romney was “raising and saving his money to ensure he won’t be out-punched in the final rounds.” The crucial battleground states number about a dozen: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Taking the polling averages used by Nate Silver in the New York Times, the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. Only 270 votes are needed to win the presidency.
Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.
By that measure, as of last Friday, he would win 8 of the 12 battlegrounds, for a total of 290 electoral votes.
Romney victories in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia leaves the Republican marooned on 248 electoral votes.
Strategists including Karl Rove have, in recent months, noted that Romney’s path to victory is challenging one in terms of the electoral map.
Now, Democrats are citing the same argument to justify guarded confidence.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I have to disagree on that one. I think Romney will beat Lil Barry in more states but Lil Barry will win in the states with more electoral votes. The population centers, hence more electoral votes. Take a look at the electoral map at Real Clear Politics. Color 6 -10 of the gray states blue and Obama wins. This country will look like a sea of red with a large blue border. Of course if it goes the other, we will have rioting in most of the large cities.
>> must remember to proof read more than once
Well, you were sort of right the first time... the MOST important poll IS taken in November. Early November, not late, but you got the month right. :-)
The state polls are all relying on 2008 turnouts/party id.
It’s statistically impossible for Romney to be up 3-4 nationally and down 8 in a state like Ohio.
Wishful thinking from Niall Stanage.
Evidently, Stanage has forgotten November of 2010. And that Obama has been spending far more (War on Women, Bain, “You Didn’t Build That!”) than he’s been taking in on his anemic, cross country fund raisers on the tax payer’s dime. Which is why Senate Dems will scream for another QE (III or IV, I forget) around Labor Day. To pay off Obama’s foreign, union and special interest cronies.
If the economy keeps the way it is or drops between now and November. Obama will lose in a landslide. If not, Obama will still lose. Badly!
Since Walker turned Wisconsin around I don’t see Odungo taking Wisconsin.
Yup....these polls are cooked. It’s obvious.
Current polling, from reputable firms, only give Romney an edge in Florida, Missouri, and a scant one in North Carolina from that list of twelve. They are not enough.
Either way, we might still require divine intervention.
I wish we had a better candidate. Still, the only poll that matters will take place November 6.
The key to the election is, as is well known, the independents. The rule for an election is that the undecided will break for the challenger if the incumbent cannot make the case for his/her election. Obama has yet to exceed 50% in any poll that I have seen recently. I am watching Fox’s Special Report right now and they have Obama at 280. I do not believe it and instead believe that Obama is losing it.
And where is Romney? In Poland. Three months before the election. This guy really needs to step up the campaign.
It is still early, and once the olympics is done, then the conventions, Romney will begin to pull ahead.
Probably that was among likely voters which is a more accurate poll.
Assuming that Romney can hold Colorado, it will come down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. If he can take Florida, Romney will need to take either Pennsylvania or any two of Ohio, Virginia and Wisconisin. If I were a resident of any of these states, I wouldn’t watch television or listen to the radio between Labor Day and Election Day. Inundation is not too strong a term to describe what will happen in these states during that period of time.
These polls, by & large, are using 2008 turnout figures. Different world in 2012.
Romney could be tap dancing naked in Times Square and the majority of voters would never know it, because they are not paying attention. Most don’t even bother to think about it until a couple of weeks before the election.
10 out of 12 Swinger states?
Romney takes Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. That puts it at 295-243.
I do not normally turn to profanity but......
WTF is wrong with this country???
Too many takers, not enough makers!!
However,Obama could pick his nose and flick it at the camera. The MSM would report it as sheer genius.
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