Posted on 07/25/2012 6:35:57 PM PDT by mnehring
Ben Tribbett, one of the state's top bloggers, got me thinking yesterday. He is known as the guy behind the highly rated political blog Not Larry Sabato. But Ben deserves to be even better known as one of the state's best gurus on election statistics down to the precinct level.
Ben has done a lot of mentally "running the numbers" on the potential impact of former Congressman Virgil Goode's run for President as the nominee for the Constitution Party here in Virginia.
Ben is likely - and hopefully soon - to do a blog post an Obama-Romney-Goode race here in the Commonwealth. The media is currently assuming that Goode is not going to be a factor in who wins the White House. They have been assuming the president will win Virginia handily as the polls had been indicating, or that Goode's support in any poll will disappear in November.
But yesterday, a two-way poll in Virginia between President Obama and former Governor Romney showed a dead heat. The national polls are showing a dead heat, with some pundits suggesting Virginia could be the deciding state in the Electoral College.
So again, I am writing in part to encourage Ben - I know he is busy - to lay out the numbers so we all can improve our knowledge here.
We all know what Ralph Nader did in Florida to cost Al Gore the Presidency. We all know what followed in terms of the George W. Bush years. Presidential elections matter. A lot.
A few weeks ago, I was interviewed by a national reporter about Goode's candidacy for President. I said the polls were wrong in saying he would be a big factor in Southwest, where his positions on immigration policy appealed to the most conservative, Republican elements of the area. My view was this: those voters really didn't know Goode and in the end, most would vote for Romney as the viable anti-Obama candidate.
But as to Virginia, I said this: Goode is known in certain parts of the state, and has always shown support there with high name ID in surrounding areas. Goldmanusa :: Should Dems, Anti-Romney Republicans Secretly Fund Goode's Campaign for President? So I figured there was a good chance Goode could get some of those folks if they remained skeptical about Romney especially if the GOP nominee was seen as shifting to a more moderate position on immigration. But I couldn't quantify even a range of potential hard core support. Ben has given it a lot more thought and mathematical analysis.
Again, there is no way to ever know and polls tend to be very unreliable in that they generally way overstate the final vote of a guy like Goode. So one has to avoid getting stuck on a specific number.
BUT there is one thing for certain: Almost all of those who ultimately wind-up voting for Virgil Goode in Virginia would NOT have voted for President Obama.
Therefore, if you assume a close Electoral College race for President, one potential political strategy makes a huge amount of campaign sense for Democrats and those Republicans who don't want to see Romney elected President:
Give money, get money, to the Virginia campaign of Virgil Goode.
Indeed, under the new campaign rules, a group of Dems/Anti-Romney Republicans can masquerade as a pro-Goode SUPER PAC, and secretly fund the whole effort.
As Ben can show, there is an existing pool of potential 2012 voters in Virginia who Goode has a chance of wooing over to his side....with a sufficient amount of money and campaign luck.
It doesn't take a math genius to know that 50-50 Obama vs Romney race in VA could easily come out 49.5 for Obama, 48.5 for Romney and 2.0 for Goode.
Moreover, to the extent the Romney campaign comes to believe it might lose VA, then it has to make some very hard and potentially wrong strategy decisions on how to make up the 13 electoral votes.
MEANING: The viability of the Goode campaign in VA - forget the rest of the country - needs to get some more attention by the national press, indeed the VA press.
Virgil is no more qualified to be President than Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain. But in Virginia, the former populist Democrat turned Independent turned conservative Republican turned anti-immigrant Constitutional Party presidential nominee could be the nut in the coconut for the White House come November.
So, I ask you: Given the current polls, the current logic and the current realities, what is more likely to change the outcome of the presidential election? 1) Another $5 million spent on TV ADS focused on Obama or Romney in one way or another; or 2) using that same $5 million to promote Virgil Goode as a protest vote on immigration policy (or whatever), helping persuade voters they can have the biggest impact by using their vote to send both parties a message?
If you will not believe your own common sense, then Ben's numbers will make you see that Virgil Goode, with that kind of chump changed in terms of what is being spent, has as yet an unappreciated ability - with enough money - to get enough votes in Virginia to likely guarantee a win for President Obama in the Old Dominion. And that, in turn, could easily be the key to winning President Obama a second term in the White House.
As a pure matter of risk vs reward, the "risk" of losing votes because you didn't spend that $5 million on either a pro-Obama or anti-Romney ad is far, far less than the potential "reward" of spending that money on pro-Goode ads, thus generating votes for the former Congressman's presidential bid, in turn taking them from Romney, in turn helping Obama win Virginia.
I bet that right now, there are some very smart people sitting around gaming out a strategy of how to make sure Goode gets the benefit of this kind of money, if not more.
In 2000, it was Florida: In 1916, it was California. In 1888, it was New York. In 1884, it was New York again. In 1876, it was Florida. In 1800, it was Delaware. In 2012, it could be Virginia. Which means it could be Virginia's Virgil Goode who determines the 2012 presidential election outcome, one way or the other.
I fully DISagree with him - and you - and I don’t give a tinkers Damn when you or he started here.
I didn’t vote Romney in the prima,ry but I will put my personal feelings aside and do what is right for America and that is voting Obama OUT.
Anything else is unthinkable.
over the years, there's been lots of differences here on FR....about money, sex, jobs, pensions, movies,music,cooking,gardening,culture, etc etc...
but to have people openly hoping that the dictator in chief, the muslim, the racist, the arrogant, and narcissistic bamey be kept in charge of all of us...him with his Holder and his pelosi etc...its just unbelievable....it'll be the end of us...
Exactly...I just cannot fathom the idea of leaving the Marxist in office. It’s. like I’m the only person who has been reading the news over the last 4 years. Everyday it’s a horror show that cannot end soon enough.
I’ve just given up on some folks here....we have no country anymore.....
I read some of the posts here anymore & I am absolutely speechless! To say that it would be better if Obama wins four more years than to do anything possible to kick his a$$ out......I’m speechless!
To live in Virginia & throw your vote away on a third party candidate - who hasn’t a chance to win - VIRGINIA! A crucial state that can make the difference of Obama winning or losing - to actually encourage Virginians to do that.....there is not a doubt in my mind that you would have to be either an Obamabot or a crazy zealot (but I repeat myself).
There, I’ve said it. Crazy any way you look at it!
Goode was a Dem just a few years back
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So ???
So was Willard...
But that doesnt seem to have stopped you from being a RomneyBot...
At least Goode mixed with Americans from all political persuasions...
Until 1994 when Willie decided to run for US Senate in MASS and couldnt run as a Dem,... that was taken by Ted...the Romneys were Democrats, voting supporting, endorsing, donating to DEMOCRATS...
So poor Willie had to accept the Republican nomination, but not to worry, he ran as a DEMOCRAT... with a Democrat view on the issues...
Which meant he had rto our-DEemocrat Teddy6...
So he ran as far left without ru8nning ionto the Pacific Ocaen as he could...
Teddy was slimmer then so Willie had no trouble dodging to the left and passing him ball in hand...boasting he was more liberal than Ted on abortion and gay rights etc...
However while he was WAAAAAAY over to the left and almost into the bleachers he fumbled dropped the ball, which bounced right to Teddy who scooped it up and ran for the goal...
Ann Romney said once that until Willie ran for the US Senate they didnt even KNOW any Republicans..that was some isolated Democrat life they led...
Plus Willie said that when he ran for the Senate in 1994 he didnt know who Reagan was...
How did he live in the US and manage that ???
Words mean things kid...
All this is straight out of their own Democrat mouths...
Now, what was it you were saying about Reagan errr Goode was a Dem just a few years back ???
The Muslim trash we currently have in the White House needs to go.
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Instead of being obsessed with replacing him with Mormon trash why dont you consider a Christian Conservative ???
We still have Tampa next month...
Wee Willie is not crowned king of America as yet...
We still have Tampa next month...
Wee Willie is not crowned king of America as yet...
Why would any conservative want to support a candidate that has teamed up with a Greenie party? Better be careful - your Obama preference is showing.
So what are you all going to be doing at the convention next month - protesting out there with Code Pink, the Westboro gang and the other Obamabots?
So what are you all going to be doing at the convention next month - protesting out there with Code Pink, the Westboro gang and the other Obamabots?
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Why bless yer lil heart...
Inviting me to join yer group ...
Thats raht neighborly of ya...
But no thanks...
Yer politics is not my style..
Ya go ahead though...
Have fun...
I agree that he must go.
-- Hamilton
The bad news: They might give it to him in the form of a small idiotic minority like the gift of Nader to us in Floriduh back in 2000. Just look at the imbeciles on this thread and their pretense of "purity". Yeah, yeah, let's reenact Picketts Charge, I mean, what could possibly go wrong?
If it works for them, watch them stamp their feet and whine like toddlers as Bambi dismantles everything they claim to love.
No, LS, you don't get it. These folks actually believe that they are right. They'll blame it on those who chose to vote for Romney in the general election because we "sold out" and voted for the enemy. They are delusional or just plain stupid.
I'm just in awe of how absurd it is getting here. The "I'm more conservative than you" crowd that actually believes that it is in the best interest of the country to have 4 more years of Obama than have Romney. There will be no country left after 4 more years of Obama.
They claim that the rights of the unborn are at stake, so we can't have Romney. So, please explain to me how the pro-life movement is benefited by the reelection of Obama? Romney says that he is now pro-life and anti-abortion. We know where Obama is on this. He will force Catholic institutions to pay for abortions and force Catholic hospitals to perform them. Are you folks so delusional that you believe that Romney would do that as well?
My God, what is wrong with you people????
Well, NOW I understand. It's obvious that you are the one who determines who is a conservative, or not.
LLS
According to Mr. Buckly, God rest his soul, you should vote for the most conservative candidate that has a chance of winning.
Switch hitter Goode isn't that candidate.
And by whose measure are those actions decided to be a lie? Your's? If we don't worship at the alter of Sarah, are we liberals? If we don't meet each single issue voter's strict adherance requirements, are we the enemy? This is getting crazy. Wake up people! There won't be some glorious revolution and restoration brought on by Obama. Only the end of our Republic. It will not end with a bang, only a whimper. He has started the job of fundamentally transforming America. And you idiots who are trying to convince others that Romney will be worse are helping him finish the job. You are not Americans; you are not conservatives. You are delusional fools.
I have been called a moderate here because I recognize that Obama is going to destroy our Republic and Romney is the only chance to stop him. Apparently, according to Ron H., that makes me a "moderate", a term that he intended as an insult. I am a conservative, and unlike some here who apparently were dropped on their heads too often as infants, I recognize that we will never have the perfect candidate and I also recognize that Obama will kill our Republic if we don't stop him. Some here feel that its better to let Obama finish what he started. I can't for the life of me understand why they think that.
The left understands that they won't get everything they want right away and have been content, hell, downright giddy, to get as much as they can in each cycle, even if all they get is keeping the status quo. You folks don't get it and just fall into their trap.
That was great way back then when the Federal government was weak and didn't have much control over everyone's life and it didn't matter much who was president because the winner still loved his country.
I wonder what Hamilton would have to say about todays president?
I will end this discussion by paraphrasing United States Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart and how he described his threshold test for obscenity in Jacobellis v. Ohio (1964).
I may not be able to properly define Conservatism... but I know it when I see it. I can talk about the three legged stool and rattle off Conservative tenants and values... but any true Conservative knows when someone is a Conservative and we damn sure know when someone or some position isn't.
LLS
Oh brother. You would be saying the same thing if Nancy Pelosi changed to a Republican in January. Ran in our primary and won. You would be chearleading her too just because she is our nominee. Why don’t you get some principles. You are SO MUCH better than this. I have seen you fight for what is right....but this is not you at all.
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