Posted on 06/23/2012 3:17:36 PM PDT by varina davis
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&& HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Anyway...that depends. Early in the season they tend to form in the Gulf. By August and Sept. they are more Carri bean/Atlantic storms that track this way.
Talk about wet here in the Keys its been raining since late April.Very unusual for us.
Wet in Orlando area, and some really cool temps for June. Looks like another few days of rain w or w/out TS Debbie
Houston’s been great so far. Not as scenic as where I came from, but the people have been amazingly welcoming for such a sprawling city.
And thanks for the storm info. I’ve always seen them coming way out in the Atlantic but never paid a bit of attention to where they come from in the Gulf!
Nice...
LOL
I think you are correct....Debbie does head for Dallas
I’ve seen slow-moving tropical storms that caused more problems than fast-moving Cat 2 hurricanes. Every storm is dangerous. Some are more dangerous than others.
Here's a nearby weather station chart for June 18th. The dew point was in the 60's and the temperature barely got over 85. The dew point is normally 75 with temperatures over 90. It may not sound like much, but the weather this time of year is very predictable, hot and humid always. The 18th was very comfortable.
Is it possible this trof got a kick from the remnants of a front?
Welcome to Houston, I live in the Sugar Land area.
As mentioned above, beware of tropical storms, as they will flood the crap out of an area. We (in Houston) had Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, and it flooded us like crazy. It was already raining when they called it a tropical storm (unlike hurricanes where you know something is up for days, often many days). I was at work...got an E-Mail that said this rain was a tropical storm, looked outside, and drove home - immediately. Others didn’t and got to spend a few nights at work against their will, as the storm sat on top of us for something like 3 days.
Hurricanes don’t sneak up, and everyone understands them - tropical storms, like Allison can be just a bunch of rain clouds when you go to work...
Please review my post in the following thread as these new type crimes are hitting Houston now.
Five Types Of Looters You Must Prepare For
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2898747/posts?page=1
My post number 15. Tell your neighbors. :(
So you live in or near Miramar? Friends from Miami have told me it’s been pretty cool and rainy there (relatively speaking).
But I don’t think you get nor’easters. We get them in my part of the state, and they’re pretty awful.
OH No Good Morning America can’t open with under 3.00 gas in South Carlina as this will shut down oil refiners
Does anybody know what happened to Nati Nurse and the Hurricane Ping List?
Yes, they are - both the ones we went through in the Tampa area, anyway ............................ FRegards
I was wondering where NN,Nauti Nurse is as well!
Nope. The low pressure started down in the extreme SE Gulf/NW Caribbean. But before that it was a trof in the Caribbean. The front didn’t reach that far. It finally closed off because of thunderstorms lowering the pressure (latent heat release of condensation in the convective complex). It’s of tropical origins.
Looking at the track, we may get some much needed rain. IIRC, the last Debra brought a lot of flooding to our area.
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