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Prop. 29 will win, cigarette smuggling will rise
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 6/3/12 | Willie Brown

Posted on 06/03/2012 5:51:20 AM PDT by SmithL

Here's a primary prediction: Despite being seriously outspent by big tobacco, the Proposition 29 people get a last-minute infusion of campaign cash and squeak out a win for their measure tacking another $1-per-pack tax onto cigarettes.

No sooner does the new tax go into effect, my street contacts tell me, than Indian tribes will open tobacco shops at their casinos, where buyers can escape state taxes and buy cigarettes on the cheap.

Just as quickly, smugglers will start rolling in truckloads of smokes from Nevada, Arizona and Oregon, as street dealers realize there is more money to be made selling hot cigarettes than there is selling dope.

As for the other statewide measure before voters, I am adamantly opposed to Proposition 28 to modify term limits for California state legislators. As the No. 1 victim of term limits, I consider them an abomination and cannot support anything to make them more palatable. The only move I support is their total repeal.

Besides, changing lawmakers term limits from 14 to 12 years won't change anything but the life span of leadership positions.


. . .

I see that George Shultz and Condoleezza Rice endorsed Mitt Romney at his big Hillsborough fundraiser.

It just goes to show how thin the GOP bench is in California. No state officials. No big-city mayors. No real congressional stars.

Just George and Condoleezza, recycled again.

And after looking at the average age of the guests, I can see why Mitt doesn't bring up Social Security as an issue.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: prop29; taxandspend; tobaccotax; willieworld
The view from Willie-World.
1 posted on 06/03/2012 5:51:27 AM PDT by SmithL
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To: SmithL

Willie Brown admitting that when taxes go up, people find ways to avoid them? Well, a stopped clock IS right once a day.


2 posted on 06/03/2012 6:11:26 AM PDT by randita
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To: SmithL

OTR drivers pick up in WV and establish

retirement accounts on both coasts


3 posted on 06/03/2012 6:16:10 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: SmithL

And revenues will fall.

Michigan Lottery sales, taxes on cigarettes and casino gambling plummet; Gov. Jennifer Granholm says revenue decline is ‘breathtaking’ (2009)

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2009/03/michigan_lottery_sales_taxes_o.html


4 posted on 06/03/2012 6:20:10 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: SmithL

Cigarette smuggling certainly goes way back.

I worked in an auto plant in Ohio in the late 60s.
The parking lot always had guys who sold trunkfulls of low tax cigs from Kentucky.

I think the total price back then was 20 or 25 cents but the incentive was there.


5 posted on 06/03/2012 6:26:58 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: cripplecreek
Michigan Lottery sales, taxes on cigarettes and casino gambling plummet; Gov. Jennifer Granholm says revenue decline is ‘breathtaking’ (2009)

When will they ever learn??

6 posted on 06/03/2012 6:41:11 AM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: SmithL
This is a good tax increase in that it invokes the law of supply and demand and will reduce children smoking. An increase in price will produce a decrease in demand. That's a good thing. (insert obligatory mocking "for the children" line here). I will vote for this tax increase as will many, many conservatives.

It's estimated 88% of smokers start as teens. If you don't care about teens that's fine but let me quote the great Newt from '97...

Civilization cannot survive with twelve-year-olds having babies, fifteen-year-olds shooting one another, seventeen-year-olds dying of AIDS, and eighteen-year-olds graduating with diplomas they cannot read.

7 posted on 06/03/2012 6:53:48 AM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Drango

I can’t believe a conservative supports a law which limits freedom of choice. From experience, any increase will not dull demand.....black mkt. will win


8 posted on 06/03/2012 7:06:49 AM PDT by estrogen (don't let the media pick our candidate)
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To: SmithL

Wait...you mean Prohibitions create black markets?

DAMN! Someone should tell them!


9 posted on 06/03/2012 7:33:34 AM PDT by FLAMING DEATH (Are you better off than you were $4 trillion ago?)
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To: Drango

This will kill innocent people.

Higher taxes will make smuggling profitable.

Local agencies will crack down on smuggling.

SWAT will raid the houses of “tobacco smugglers”.

As has been demonstrated time and again, they’ll eventually get the wrong house. Or, someone will “SWAT” someone else and tip off (lie to) the authorities, saying that there are contraband cigarettes present in someone’s dwelling.

If that person is lucky, only the dog will be shot before the SWAT team realizes they’re in the wrong place, or that they’ve been given bad information.

If they’re lucky.

We don’t need any more reasons for the government to be coming into homes at 3AM with guns blazing.


10 posted on 06/03/2012 7:40:44 AM PDT by FLAMING DEATH (Are you better off than you were $4 trillion ago?)
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To: FLAMING DEATH

And all that for a product that NOT against the law to buy or use! Ridiculous!


11 posted on 06/03/2012 7:48:21 AM PDT by CAluvdubya (I just try to stay out of the fray...)
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To: SmithL

In all fairness, there are many times when “dumb laws” are a boon to society, but only if they are dumb in the “right” way.

For example, people will certainly go out of their way to get “forbidden fruit”, and Americans have a long and respected tradition of smuggling, embargo-breaking, and unfair tax evasion going back to colonial days. It being unlawful just adds “spice” as far as they are concerned.

The only real problem emerges when the dumb law is done in the “wrong” way, which contributes to organized crime. Prohibitions on alcohol and drugs are the best example of this social disaster.

Americans aren’t particularly unique this way. If you have ever seen the play “Orpheus in Hades” by Offenbach, you can see the equivalent as was played out in France.

The bawdiness of the play was morally condemned by the Parisian police of the time, who made it a point to raid the show just after its grand closing number, which they considered obscene. However, no less than the King of France was a big fan, and would attend performances incognito.

Discovering this, the police refrained from raiding the play, which was a big disappointment to the audience that were expecting it, as the highlight of the show. Even the king was unhappy about it.

So after the police stopped raiding it, the actors went so far as to choreograph a fake police raid, with actors dressed as police, blowing police whistles and driving out the audience. This remains part of the choreography of the play, still performed today. Audiences are no longer kicked out, though.


12 posted on 06/03/2012 8:01:22 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: SmithL

Another $1-per-pack tax onto cigarettes.

Wonder why they don’t increase taxes on pot?.
Here in LA more people smoke pot than cigarettes,we have more pot shops than 7-11 stores.


13 posted on 06/03/2012 9:15:21 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: SmithL

Another $1-per-pack tax onto cigarettes.

Wonder why they don’t increase taxes on pot?.
Here in LA more people smoke pot than cigarettes,we have more pot shops than 7-11 stores.


14 posted on 06/03/2012 9:21:18 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: SmithL
Just as quickly, smugglers will start rolling in truckloads of smokes from Nevada, Arizona and Oregon,

which will lead to the hiring of more state employees to stop and search trucks as they head into California, leading to higher taxes for enforcement, .... and the beat goes on.

15 posted on 06/03/2012 9:33:11 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
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To: SmithL
Mexican gangs will dominate the lucrative new cigarette smuggling business. Violent crime will soar, law enforcement will be corrupted, and tax revenues will tank.

In other words, more of the same.

16 posted on 06/03/2012 10:05:41 AM PDT by Thud
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To: SmithL
+ + =
17 posted on 06/03/2012 10:24:31 AM PDT by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; one box left.)
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To: estrogen; All
Disingenuous. You're still free to buy. The "choice" still exists. Your argument is just like the pro-choice demanding Planned Parenthood and abortions be subsidized or paid for by tax dollars because otherwise it's the same as denying the "right to choose" for women who can't afford it on their own.

Something to think about.

18 posted on 06/03/2012 11:33:43 AM PDT by newzjunkey (I advocate separation of school and sport)
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To: All; SmithL
He's not far off about the CA-GOP "bench" but no big-city GOP mayors? With a population about half that of Los Angles, making it the second largest city in the state, is San Diego not a big-city, Willie?

It's a "non-partisan" office but incumbent mayor Jerry Sanders is a Republican.

He's right about term limits. As an experiment in improving government they have shown to be a catastrophic failure.

19 posted on 06/03/2012 11:38:20 AM PDT by newzjunkey (I advocate separation of school and sport)
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To: estrogen

He’s not a conservative, he’s a statist smoke Nazi and his posts are all the same on this subject.


20 posted on 06/03/2012 12:58:40 PM PDT by packrat35 (Admit it! We are almost ready to be called a police state!)
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