Posted on 05/11/2012 8:12:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If the election were held today, Mitt Romney would win by a landslide.
The published polls reflect a close race for two reasons:
1. They poll only registered voters, not likely voters. Rasmussen is the only pollster who tests likely voters, and his latest tracking poll has Romney ahead by 48-43.
2. As discussed in previous columns, a study of the undecided voters in the past eight elections in which incumbents sought a second term as president reveals that only Bush-43 gained any of the undecided vote. Johnson in ’64, Nixon in ’72, Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Reagan in ’84, Bush in ’92 and Clinton in ’96 all failed to pick up a single undecided vote.
So when polls show President Obama at 45 percent of the vote, they are really reflecting a likely 55-45 Romney victory, at the very least.
Gallup has amassed over 150,000 interviews over all of 2011 and compared them with a like number in 2010. It finds that Obama has a better than 50 percent job approval in only 10 states and the District of Columbia. And his approval has dropped in almost every single state. Even in California, it has fallen from 55 percent in 2010 to 50.5 percent in 2011.
Over the period of May 4-6, I completed a poll of 400 likely voters in Michigan and found Romney leading by 45-43! And Michigan is one of the most pro-Democrat of the swing states.
I also found that Obama’s personal favorability, which has usually run about 10 to 20 points higher than his job approval, is now equal to his job rating. In Michigan, his personal favorability among likely voters is 47-47, while his job rating is 50-48. Romney’s favorability is 49-42.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I know that he was Clinton's personal pollster, but how good was he?
And the Chicago Bulls Should have beaten the Sixers.
Romney also “should” win in a a landslide because Obama is a God-awful leftist disaster.
He predicted a 100 seat gain in the House and takeover of the Senate in '10.
Good question... I’d like to see Morris’s correct/incorrect percentage before putting credence in any of his predictions.
I think one would win if you placed bets opposite of Morris’s predictions.
Morris is the Beano Cook for political prognosticators.
They said Jerry Cooney SHOULD beat the Champ Larry Holmes in June of ‘82, because Cooney had the ‘big bat’.
Of course 0bama wouldn’t even count for a speck of fecal matter in Holmes shorts, but Romney IS the political equivalent of Cooney.
At this point, I have not heard a reason to vote for either, but Romney won't need my vote or support to beat obama.
My sense is, the October Surprise this election will go against obama and the DNC in a major way. They're done.
People were fed up almost from the beginning and now those who aren't simply fed up are downright frightened.
I told her she should have replied "undecided" so they would keep calling back.
The guy is consistently wrong, and yet people still ask him. Not sure how that works.
This is the worst news I’ve seen in a while. If I were in the Obama camp, this would make me happy.
He makes some good points, but Dick Morris’ main job is to sell Dick Morris. And the biggest customer for Dick Morris is FOX News.
It doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
If we can't beat Obama, it will have been rigged or we have stupid people who should not be allowed to vote...... FROM THE GRAVE!
Dick Morris is right less often than a broken clock.....
I could spend my life making incorrect & misguided predictions & suffer no ill effects as the news channels will keep asking me back.
What a gig!
This from the guy who was certain the 2008 race would between Hillary and Condi.
[If anyone else said it, I might believe. From Morris? He is about as accurate in his predictions as Jean Dixon was.]
More like a broken digital clock!
The fact that obama needs Hollywood and music industry stars to prop him up speaks volumes. In ‘08, the only reason he drew crowds was because he had idiots like Springsteen and Stevie Wonder doing free concerts.
I remember when he predicted Hillary vs Condi Rice for presidential race in 2008.
Given Morris’ track record, this is pretty much the kiss of death for the Romney campaign.
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